Earnings Verdict
SNDK near-term bearish with high vol; earnings far out but historical beat rate 100%
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 6.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 22
Most important: Heavy put OI and negative flow signal near-term downside risk
⚠️Put OI ratio 1.74x calls – bearish hedging dominant
📉Unusual 950 put (6/12) with IV 167% signals downside tail risk
✅100% beat rate over 5 quarters supports resilient business
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$1550.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 4,697 (0.6% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-08-24 (80 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-06-12 (7d): ±$189.85 (12.2%)
- 2026-06-18 (13d): ±$254.15 (16.3%)
- 2026-06-26 (21d): ±$319.90 (20.5%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Near-term IV elevated (7d ~12% expected move), long-term lower
Crush estimate: Post-event crush moderate due to distant earnings
Skew: Put skew pronounced; put OI 1.74x calls
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: Not provided
Directional bias: Historically bullish (100% beat) but current flow bearish
Key Levels
1$1550.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $1369.47/$1749.17
3Max pain pins: $1660 (2026-06-05); $1540 (2026-06-12); $1030 (2026-06-18)
Flow Highlights
Large put volume on 1565, 1580 strikes for 6/5
Bearish positioning for near-term
Massive volume on OTM calls (1600, 1650) with near-zero price
Likely closing activity, unwinding longs
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!1. Stock below max pain ($1660) and gamma flip ($1550), potential downward drift
!2. High put/call ratio indicates hedging pressure
!3. Market downturn (QQQ -4.8%) exacerbates bearish sentiment
!4. Earnings 80 days away limits catalysts
What to Watch
?1. $1550 gamma flip level
?2. $1660 max pain for 6/5
?3. $2000 call wall
?4. VIX action