base 5; -1 GEX/flow contradict; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.7% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19
Term structure: Steep, front‑loaded skews (1d high call/put IV); mid term ~50s
Spot vs MP: Below
GEX regime: Pinning ($+148.1M)
OI concentrations: Max‑pain pins at $71–72; call OI wall $75–100; no large put wall below spot
#1Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $73.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $72.00 call
Sell the May29 near‑term call into elevated IV, buy the June back month to cap naked exposure and collect rapid front‑month decay.
Mgmt: Close or roll short if spot >$75 or IV/GEX flip; trim if spot breaches $66.6; consider rolling short to next month after pin resolves.
#2Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-29 $73.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $70.50 call
Sell May29 call to harvest premium, buy a longer July call to limit naked short risk and extend directional optionality.
Mgmt: Same invalidation/roll rules as s1; prefer closing short into pin resolution or if spot moves through guardrails.
!4/24 1d expiry and 4/27–4/29 expiries concentrate risk
!Dealer GEX/net premium shifts could flip pin dynamics
!Spot breach of 2d guardrails $66.63/$70.13 increases directional risk
!Do not sell naked short premium into these near‑dated expiries; use defined‑risk structures or avoid the $71 pin band