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SBUX

Starbucks CorporationClose $106.50EOD only

Max Pain

$106.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.21

2.1% from close

Price Gap

-0.50

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.98

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects SBUX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

SBUX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a multi-week downward drift bias. Confidence: 6.5/10. Spot is pinned near-term by positive GEX but faces structural resistance from falling max pain and heavy put flow.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

Base 5; +1 GEX/flow weakly aligned (GEX positive, flow mixed); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 4.7% from MP. No override; mechanical score captures the conflict.

Supports: Positive GEX ($152K) creates near-term pinning support; spot near 1-week EM lower bound ($85.74).
Conflicts: Falling max pain trend ($94 → $80); net premium flow is mixed with heavy put buying at $89-$91; P/C volume ratio 1.32 shows put dominance.

📉Max pain ladder trends down over 17 expirations — structural bearish gravity.

📌Spot pinned between $89 MP (4/2) and $92 MP (4/10) — near-term chop.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV 41.1% is elevated, providing edge to premium sellers, but term structure is humped around May earnings.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$152K indicates dealer pinning near spot; gamma flip at ~$85 is a critical break level.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow with net premium slightly bullish (+$288K) but dominated by large, opposing single-strike flows (e.g., $60C buy vs. $91P buy).

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot ($89.59) is below near-term max pain ($94 3/27, $89 4/2) — expect chop between these pins with a slight upward magnet to $89-$92 near-term.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent downward trend across expirations, and the GEX sign (positive) and flow regime (mixed with put bias) are consistent beyond a single weekly expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$87.94$91.24

Pinned between 4/2 MP ($89) and 2d EM high ($91.24). Break below $87.94 targets gamma flip.

Next 1 week

$85.74$93.43

Downward MP drift and put flow pressure; hold above $85.74 (1w EM low) to avoid acceleration.

Next 2 weeks

$84.30$94.87

Structural max pain trend and put OI floor at $85 provide target; break below $85 triggers dealer hedging sell-off.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $94 (2026-03-27); $89 (2026-04-02); $92 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $87.94/$91.24; 1w $85.74/$93.43

Support: $85.00 · $70.00 · $60.00

Resistance: $110.00 · $95.00 · $95.00

Gamma flip: ~$85.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,042

Structural: Call OI wall $95-$110 caps rallies; put floor $60-$85 provides distant but massive support. The $80-$85 zone is a multi-expiration magnet per MP ladder.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+152K

DEX: +15.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$85 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 11,042)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX near spot acts as a pin; a break below ~$85 (gamma flip) would see dealers become net short gamma, accelerating selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 41.1% is high (no VIX provided) — rich vol favors selling premium, especially near-term.

Term structure: Humped: peaks at 45.5% for 5/01 (31 DTE, earnings est. 4/28), then declines. 2d (35.5%) > 10d (33.6%) creates a kink.

Skew: May (45.5% IV) vs April (33-37% IV) ~10+ vol-pt differential — supports selling May premium against buying April (reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$288K slightly bullish; P/C vol 1.32 (put-heavy), P/C OI 0.87 (call-heavy) — conflicting signals.

Directional prints: 1) $91P 4/24 vol 1,817 vs OI 153 (12x) at 33% IV — likely bought puts for protection/speculation. 2) $60C massive net premium +$1.27M — likely LEAPS call buying (bullish) or covered call writing (neutral). Flow is structural/hedging.

Unusual: $104P 4/24 vol 500 at 66.7% IV — far OTM put bought rich, possibly a tail hedge.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$85 — break below accelerates selling via dealer delta hedging.

!Earnings volatility event 4/28 priced into May IV (45.5%) — risk of vol crush post-event.

!Persistent put flow at $89-$91 could overwhelm near-term pinning.

!Broad market weakness could override stock-specific technicals.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	Sell $85/$82P x $92/$95C 4/10 (10 DTE).	GEX positive supports range, but VIX unknown and put flow heavy; wings at EM bounds and OI walls.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $85/$80 put spread 4/17 (17 DTE).	Break below gamma flip at $85; defined risk to put OI floor at $80.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $90P / Sell $85P 4/17 (17 DTE).	Pinning eats premium; time decay in high IV.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $95C 4/17 (17 DTE).	Stock drifts lower; call OI wall at $95 caps upside.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Short stock with stop above $92.	Near-term pinning and positive GEX cause chop.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate	Reverse Calendar: Sell $90P 5/01 (45.5% IV) / Buy $90P 4/17 (35.5% IV).	Earnings move; requires pin near $90.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Weak	Buy $70C 1/15/27, sell $95C 4/17 against it.	Structural bearish MP trend works against long-dated bullish bias.
Long stock	Weak	Buy shares, target $92.	Against falling MP trend and put flow; only for pin-play.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Multi-week)

Buy $90P / Sell $85P, 4/17 expiration (17 DTE).

Expresses the multi-week bearish drift thesis toward the $85 gamma flip and put OI floor. Uses high IV to buy puts, but spreads to reduce cost.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $1.80

BE: $88.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max profit ($0.90 debit remaining). Exit if spot closes above $92 (resistance).

Traders with a bearish bias wanting defined risk, avoiding the chop of short premium.

Short Put Spread (Premium Sale)

Sell $85/$80 put spread, 4/17 expiration (17 DTE).

Capitalizes on positive GEX pinning and high IV to sell premium, targeting the $85 support level. Defined risk below the gamma flip.

Credit: $1.00-$1.30

Max loss: $4.00

BE: $84.00

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Roll or exit if spot closes below $85 (gamma flip).

Neutral-to-bullish premium sellers comfortable defending the $85 level.

Reverse Calendar (Vol Differential)

Sell $90P 5/01 / Buy $90P 4/17.

Exploits the ~10 vol-pt hump around earnings. Sells rich May vol, buys cheaper April vol, betting on pin near $90 and vol convergence post-earnings.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: $4.60

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush or spot move >$5.

Mgmt: Close after earnings (4/28) for vol crush. Exit if spot moves beyond $85/$95 before earnings.

Advanced traders betting on a pin and vol crush; defined risk but high theta.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks and closes below $87.94 (2d EM low). → Enter bear put spread: Buy $88P / Sell $83P 4/10.

IFSpot rallies to tag $91.24 (2d EM high) and rejects. → Sell call spread: Sell $92/$95C 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $92 (resistance). → Exit all bearish positions (puts, short stock).

EXITSpot closes below $85 (gamma flip). → Exit all short premium positions (iron condors, put spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: multi-week bearish drift toward $85, conflicted by near-term pinning. Invalidation above $92. Regime favors defined-risk directional plays (bear spreads) or selling premium at support. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for directional bias; 2) Short put spread for premium sellers; 3) Reverse calendar for vol traders. Choose based on conviction in the pin vs. the trend.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.