base 3; +2 for extremely high IV (88%); +1 for pinning GEX; -2.5 for low liquidity and wide spreads
Term structure: Steeply inverted: 157% for 2DTE, dropping to ~70% for 30-45 DTE
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 2.8% (spot $139.82 vs MP $136)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$972K — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$127.00 — Below $127, dealers amplify moves downward
OI concentrations: Major put wall at $127 (1,068 OI), call wall at $150 (1,083 OI)
#1put spread
Sell $127/$122 put spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Targets major OI support at $127 (1,068 OI) below current max pain. High IV (71.8%) provides rich premium. Defined risk protects against low-liquidity tail moves.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes below $127 gamma flip. Assume wide bid-ask (~$0.30).
#2cash-secured put
Sell $120 put 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
High IV (69.1%) provides exceptional premium for a cash-secured put. Strike is 14% below spot and below the $127 gamma flip, offering a margin of safety. Willing to own RH at $120.
Mgmt: Roll down/out if tested, targeting 21 DTE. Close at 50% profit. Be aware of assignment risk with low liquidity.
#3call credit spread
Sell $150/$155 call spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Capitalizes on the major call OI wall at $150 (1,083 OI). Spot is well below this level, and pinning GEX supports range-bound action. High IV boosts credit.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes above $150. Assume wide bid-ask (~$0.30).
#4iron condor (illustrative)
Sell $127/$122P x $150/$155C 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Illustrative only due to low liquidity. Combines the put and call spread ideas, capitalizing on the pinning range between major OI strikes ($127P, $150C). High IV provides wide breakevens.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Exit if either short strike is breached. Execution may be difficult; leg in separately.
!Extremely low liquidity (76K total OI) — bid-ask spreads will be wide, making multi-leg strategies difficult to execute and manage.
!Inverted IV term structure (157% for 2DTE) indicates significant near-term event risk. Avoid the 4/2 expiration.
!Massive bearish premium flow (Net Prem -$128.9M, P/C 2.44) suggests institutional put buying. This is a contrarian signal for premium sellers but warrants caution.
!Gamma flip at ~$127 — a break below this level could lead to accelerated selling pressure. Monitor closely.
!Earnings estimated for 2026-06-11 — close or roll all positions well before this date to avoid IV crush and binary risk.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts ($190, $200 for April) indicates tail risk hedging. Size positions small.