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RH

RHClose $133.16EOD only

Max Pain

$116.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.05

4.5% from close

Price Gap

-17.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.84

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects RH options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

RH Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral-to-bearish with a gravitational pull toward $136-$140 max pain levels. Confidence: 5/10. The regime is conflicted: positive GEX suggests pinning, but heavy put premium flow and spot above max pain create downward pressure.

Confidence:

5 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 GEX/flow contradiction; -1 spot above MP; +1 rising MP trend; +1 high IV for premium sellers.

Supports: GEX +$972K (pinning), rising max pain trend ($136 → $155), IV 88% (rich).
Conflicts: Net premium -$128.9M (bearish), P/C vol 2.44 (put-heavy), spot $139.82 above near-term MP $136.

⚠️Massive put premium flow at $200 strike (-$34M net).

📌Strong pinning near $127-$140 via GEX and OI.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 88% is extremely high — strong edge for premium sellers.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$972K concentrated near spot — strong pinning force, especially around $127-$140.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium -$128.9M with P/C vol 2.44 — overwhelming institutional put buying, likely hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $139.82 above near-term max pain $136 — creates downward gravitational pull toward pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder rises steadily from $136 to $155 over 15 expirations, GEX sign is positive, and high-IV put flow extends to May. Regime favors a multi-week grind toward higher pins.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$112.10$167.55

Spot above MP and heavy put flow; break below $127 gamma flip accelerates selling.

Next 1 week

$111.72$167.92

GEX pinning and max pain at $136/$140 dominate; range likely holds.

Next 2 weeks

$111.20$168.45

Rising MP trend to $150; flow may be hedges against longer-term upside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $136 (2026-03-27); $136 (2026-04-02); $140 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $112.10/$167.55; 1w $111.72/$167.92

Support: $127.00 · $108.00

Resistance: $660.00 · $250.00 · $220.00

Gamma flip: ~$127.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,068

Structural: Distant call OI walls at $150, $220, $250, $660 cap explosive rallies; put floor at $108 and $127 provides major support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+972K

DEX: +2.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$127 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 1,068)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$972K acts as a magnet near spot. Gamma flip at ~$127 is critical: a break below triggers dealer long hedging (selling), accelerating downtrend.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 88% is extreme — stock-specific vol rich vs. broad market, prime for selling.

Term structure: Steeply inverted: 2-day IV 157.3% crashes to 71.8% by 4/17. Massive kink at 4/2 expiry; 12/18 (262d) shows a bizarre drop to 37.0% (data anomaly or structured deal).

Skew: Near-term (4/2) IV >150% vs. 4/17 ~72% — ~80 vol-pt differential supports put calendar spreads (sell near, buy far).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$128.9M bearish; P/C vol 2.44, P/C OI 0.90.

Directional prints: $200P 4/17 vol 3,500 vs OI 419 (8.3x) at IV 139.8% — likely bought puts for hedge/protection. $140P 4/2 vol 1,064 vs OI 251 (4.2x) at IV 195.9% — could be sold premium or bought protection; sold is more consistent with pinning.

Unusual: $108P OI 944 with vol 1,232 — major support level seeing active defense.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip break below $127 triggers dealer selling acceleration.

!Extreme IV (88%) can crush rapidly on any stability, hurting long premium.

!Massive OTM put flow (e.g., $200P) may indicate tail-risk hedging for a larger portfolio, not a direct RH directional bet.

!Low liquidity (moderate OI) can exaggerate moves and make fills challenging.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate-Weak	GEX positive but VIX context N/A and high single-stock IV adds tail risk. Prefer defined-risk short strangle.	IV crush helps, but low liquidity makes adjustments difficult.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $127/$122 put spread 4/17. Targets pin, defined risk below key support.	Break below $127 gamma flip.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $150C 5/15. Collect rich premium above rising MP.	Capped upside if drift continues.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Weak	Buy $135P / sell $127P 4/10. Pays if spot falls to pin, but expensive IV.	IV crush and pinning erode value.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — expensive IV, conflicting flow, and pinning pressure.	IV crush and time decay.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Put calendar: Sell $140P 4/2 (IV 195.9%), Buy $140P 4/17 (IV 71.8%). Harvest vol differential.	Requires spot to pin near $140; pin break loses.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $120C Jan 2027 (IV ~70%), sell $150C 4/17 against it. Finance long-dated bullish drift.	Long-dated IV still elevated; pinning limits short call returns.
Short strangle	Moderate-Strong	Sell $127P / $150C 4/17. High IV, pin-bound range.	Break of $127 or $150 requires adjustment.
Long stock	Moderate	Entry near $127-$136 with stop below $127. Bet on pin drift toward $140-$150.	Gamma flip break.

Top Plays

Short Put Spread

Sell $127/$122 put spread, expiration 4/17.

Capitalizes on high IV, positive GEX pinning, and the key $127 support/gamma flip level. Defined risk below the pin.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $125.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 70% of max credit. Exit if spot closes below $127 for two consecutive hours.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection with a bullish-to-neutral bias on the pin.

Put Calendar Spread

Sell $140P 4/2, Buy $140P 4/17.

Exploits the massive ~80 vol-point inversion in term structure. Profits if RH pins near $140 through next Friday as the short high-IV leg decays rapidly.

Credit: $2.50-$3.50

Max loss: Unlimited (short put risk)

BE: Complex; manage at 50% max credit or if pin breaks.

Mgmt: Close spread if 4/2 short put reaches 50% of initial credit. Roll short put if spot moves >$5 away from $140.

Volatility traders comfortable with pinning thesis; requires precise entry near $140.

Long Stock + Covered Call

Buy shares at ~$136, sell $150C 5/15.

The multi-week thesis supports a drift toward $150 max pain. This setup collects rich call premium while positioning for upside. The 45 DTE provides time for the drift and reduces gamma risk versus a weekly.

Credit: $4.00-$6.00

Max loss: Full share price below breakeven

BE: ~$132 (share cost - premium)

Mgmt: Roll call up/out if spot approaches $150. Stop out on share position if $127 breaks.

Investors/traders willing to hold shares, seeking income and moderate upside in a pinning regime.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot drops to $136 (weekly max pain) and holds for 1 hour → Enter short $127/$122 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $145 → Sell short-dated call premium: sell $150C 4/10.

Exit Triggers

EXITShort put spread reaches 70% max profit → Close position.

EXITSpot closes above $150 (breaks near-term call OI wall) → Take profits on all short-call positions.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: RH is pinned in a $127-$140 range, with a multi-week gravitational drift toward $150 max pain. Favor selling high IV premium with defined risk, using the gamma flip at $127 as invalidation. Top plays: 1) Short put spread for premium collectors, 2) Put calendar for vol traders, 3) Stock + covered call for longer-term drift.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.