base 5; +2 for extremely high IV; +1 for strong pinning regime; -2 for moderate liquidity and wide bid-ask spreads
Term structure: Humped at May 1st (84.7% IV), elevated through June, then gradually declining. This is a backwardation-like structure for a stock, indicating near-term uncertainty.
Spot vs MP: At max pain ($135.00). Spot is $134.65.
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (Total GEX +$8.8M). Dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility and promoting mean reversion.
Gamma flip: ~$115.00 — Based on massive 26,230 OI put wall at $115. Below this level, dealer hedging could accelerate selling pressure.
OI concentrations: Major Put Wall: $115 (26,230 OI). Major Call Walls: $220 (28,684 OI), $270 (7,763 OI). The $115 put is a massive magnet for support.
#1put spread
Sell $115/$110 Put Spread for May 15th, 2026 (45 DTE)
Targets the massive OI support at $115. High IV (84.4%) provides excellent credit. 45 DTE is in the peak IV zone for optimal theta decay. Defined risk below the gamma flip.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit entire position if RDDT closes below $115 (the gamma flip/support wall). Roll only if credit >0.50 can be collected for same strikes further out.
#2iron condor
Sell $120/$115 Put Spread & $150/$155 Call Spread for May 1st, 2026 (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on the pinning regime and highest IV (84.7%). Short strikes are placed just outside the 31-day expected move ($108 - $161.30). Puts target the $115 wall, calls target resistance below the $155 OI strike.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage legs independently: roll tested side for a credit if possible. Exit entire position if spot breaches either short strike.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $120 Put for May 15th, 2026 (45 DTE)
For those comfortable with undefined risk and having capital to secure. Sells extreme IV at a strong support level ($120 has 5.4K OI). High credit provides a 7-8% ROI in 45 days and a 9% buffer from spot.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Be prepared to be assigned below $120. Roll down and out for a credit if spot approaches $120. Exit if $115 support fails.
#4call credit spread
Sell $150/$155 Call Spread for April 24th, 2026 (24 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish play on resistance. The $150 strike is at the top of the 24-day expected move ($154.60). Positive GEX pinning makes a sharp rally less likely. Good for a shorter-duration, high-IV trade.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if RDDT closes above $150. Do not hold through earnings (4/30).
!Earnings on April 30th, 2026 (est.). Close all short premium positions before this announcement. IV will crush post-earnings.
!Moderate Liquidity: Bid-ask spreads will be wide. Use limit orders. Credit estimates reflect a mid-point assumption; actual fills may be lower.
!Gamma Flip at ~$115: A break below this level (massive put wall) could lead to accelerated selling. This is the line in the sand for all put-selling strategies.
!Net Premium Flow Negative (-$12.8M): Large net put buying at strikes like $140. While offset by pinning GEX, it indicates underlying bearish sentiment to monitor.
!Unusual Call Buying: Notable volume in June $145 calls and April $145 calls. Could signal institutional interest in an upside breakout above that level.