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RDDT

Reddit, Inc.Close $146.72EOD only

Max Pain

$155.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$7.10

4.8% from close

Price Gap

+8.28

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.79

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects RDDT options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

RDDT Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward bias toward the $135-$140 zone, but trapped in a high-volatility pinning regime. Confidence: 6/10. Spot is pinned near max pain ($135) with positive GEX, but net premium flow is bearish and IV is extreme, creating a tug-of-war.

Confidence:

6 / 10

base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot at MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict (bullish pin vs. bearish premium).

Supports: GEX +$8.8M (pinning), spot at $135 max pain, P/C OI 0.74 (call-heavy positioning).
Conflicts: Net premium -$12.8M (bearish), IV 79.6% (extreme), massive put premium at $140.

📌Strong pin at $135 for 3/27 expiry, but net premium flow is bearish.

⚠️IV >79% indicates extreme fear/volatility, limiting premium-selling edge.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 79.6% — extremely high, favoring premium buyers for directional plays and limiting edge for naked short premium.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$8.8M — positive gamma pinning spot near $135, but gamma flip far below at ~$115.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed — Net premium -$12.8M is bearish, but P/C ratios (vol 0.80, OI 0.74) show call dominance in positioning.

Spot vs Max Pain

At — Spot $134.65 is directly at the 3/27 max pain of $135, reinforcing the pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a rising trend from $127 to $165 over 16 expirations, and GEX sign remains positive. The pinning regime is not isolated to a single weekly expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$129.60$139.70

GEX pin dominates; break above $140 or below $130 needed for momentum.

Next 1 week

$122.47$146.82

Max pain rises to $140 (4/17), call OI positioning supports drift higher.

Next 2 weeks

$118.72$150.57

Max pain progression to $145/$155; structural call walls remain distant.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $135 (2026-03-27); $127 (2026-04-02); $130 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $129.60/$139.70; 1w $122.47/$146.82

Support: $115.00 · $120.00 · $120.00

Resistance: $220.00 · $270.00 · $210.00

Gamma flip: ~$115.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,230

Structural: **Call OI walls at $200-$270** are far away but cap extreme rallies. **Put floor at $105-$125** provides a massive, distant support layer, with the $115 put (OI 26,230) as a major magnet.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+8.8M

DEX: +9.9M shares

Gamma flip: ~$115 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 26,230)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$8.8M near spot acts as a shock absorber, dampening moves. A move below the gamma flip (~$115) would see dealer hedging shift from stabilizing to accelerating selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 79.6% — Extremely rich. No direct VIX comparison provided, but implied volatility is in the top percentile for equities, pricing in massive expected moves.

Term structure: **Humped with a steep kink.** IV peaks at 86.1% for the 5/08 expiry (38 DTE) around estimated earnings, then declines. 2-day IV (61.9%) is lower than 10-day (67.8%), indicating event risk priced into next week.

Skew: The ~5 vol-pt drop from May (86%) to June (79%) expirations post-earnings creates a **calendar spread opportunity** (sell May, buy June).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$12.8M bearish. Contradicts call-heavy OI, driven by huge put premium at $140.

Directional prints: 1) **$145C 4/10**: Vol 2,190 vs OI 535 (4.1x) at 64.7% IV — could be bullish call buying or opening short calls for premium. Given high IV and net bearish premium, selling is more consistent. 2) **$131P 4/02**: Vol 493 vs OI 169 (2.9x) at 60.4% IV — likely protective put buying or put spread selling. 3) **$145C 6/18**: Vol 829 vs OI 201 (4.1x) at 81.0% IV — longer-dated bullish positioning or diagonal setup.

Unusual: **$140 strike**: Net premium flow of -$10.75M, almost entirely from put activity. This is a massive, concentrated bearish bet or hedge for 4/02 expiry.

Risks & Catalysts

!**Gamma flip at ~$115**: A break below this distant level could trigger accelerated dealer selling.

!**Earnings volatility (est. 4/30)**: IV >84% in May expiries prices in a huge move; post-event vol crush is a major risk for long vol positions.

!**Contradictory signals**: Bullish pin (GEX, MP) vs. bearish premium flow creates whipsaw risk.

!**Extreme IV**: Makes premium selling lucrative but dangerous if the pin breaks; favors defined-risk spreads.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	N/A	High volatility and pinning limit near-term upside; better to sell premium against shares.
Short stock	Weak	N/A	Positive GEX pin and rising max pain ladder create upward drift pressure.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $145C 4/17 (~$3.00 est.)	Capped upside if breakout occurs; shares could decline.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate	Sell $125/$120 put spread 4/17 (credit ~$1.80)	Break below $125 targets the massive $115 put OI wall.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $140C 4/17 (~$7.00 est.)	High IV (68%) and pinning lead to rapid theta/vol decay without a sharp move.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate-Weak	Buy $130/$125 put spread 4/17 (debit ~$2.00)	Bullish pin and positive GEX resist downward moves; high IV increases cost.
Iron condor	Moderate	$125/$120P x $145/$150C 4/17	GEX positive but VIX proxy >28 (IV 79.6%), so edge is only Moderate per threshold. Pin break risks one side.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $140C 5/08 (IV 86%), Buy $140C 6/18 (IV 79%) for a ~$2.00 credit.	Earnings move could blow through short strike; requires tight management.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $115C 1/2027 (~$35.00 est.), Sell $145C 4/17 (~$3.00)	Capital intensive; short leg may be challenged if pin holds below $145.

Top Plays

Covered Call (Against Existing Shares)

Sell $145 Call, 4/17 expiry

Capitalizes on high IV for premium, aligns with upward pin drift and call OI resistance at $145 (1w EM bound). Best if you already own shares and want to generate income while defining an exit.

Credit: $2.80-$3.20

Max loss: Unlimited below stock price

BE: Stock price minus credit

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of credit; roll up/out if spot approaches $144. Close if spot breaks below $129 (2d EM support).

Shareholders looking for yield in a high-vol, range-bound pin.

Reverse Calendar Spread (Earnings Vol Play)

Sell $140 Call 5/08, Buy $140 Call 6/18

Exploits the steep IV kink around earnings (86% vs 79%). Profits from vol crush in the May expiry post-earnings, with the longer-dated leg providing upside protection. The 30+ DTE on the long leg captures the multi-week bullish drift thesis.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: Unlimited above $140

BE: Complex; manage pre-earnings.

Mgmt: Close for a profit if May IV collapses post-earnings (target 50% of max credit). Exit if spot rallies >$155 (breaks term structure).

Traders comfortable with earnings event risk, seeking to harvest extreme IV differentials.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $125 / Buy $120 Put Spread, 4/17 expiry

Defined-risk way to collect premium in a pinning regime, targeting the strong put OI floor. The 4/17 DTE aligns with the multi-week thesis, providing time for the pin to work. Better than a CSP due to defined risk in a high-vol name.

Credit: $1.70-$1.90

Max loss: $3.30

BE: $123.30

Mgmt: Close at 60-70% max profit. Exit on a daily close below $125 (key support and short strike).

Traders with a neutral-to-bullish bias seeking defined risk premium collection.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot drops to $130 (tests 2d EM support) and bounces → Enter $125/$120 put spread 4/17 for a credit >$1.80.

IFSpot breaks above $140 on volume → Initiate a PMCC: Buy $115C 1/2027, sell $155C 4/17 against it.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $125 (key put OI support) → Exit all short put positions (CSPs, put spreads).

EXITVIX proxy (IV) drops below 60% (vol crush) → Take profits on all short premium positions (iron condors, put spreads).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-volatility pin with upward drift toward rising max pain levels ($135 → $165). Invalidation is a break below $125. The regime favors selling premium via defined-risk spreads (covered calls, put spreads) and exploiting the earnings IV kink with calendars. Top plays: 1) Covered call for shareholders, 2) Reverse calendar for vol traders, 3) Put spread for defined-risk premium collectors.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.