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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $648.85EOD only
Max Pain
$620.00
Next expiry Apr 20, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.45
0.8% from close
Price Gap
-28.85
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
84
High premium
P/C OI
1.48
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 17, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 17, 2026 close
QQQ Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 20, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6 / 10
Sizing: Conservative
Primary: Structured short premium (iron condor/ratio) with front-month avoidance
Invalidation: Sustained move above $670, VIX >30, or rapid front-end IV compression/expansion that removes put OI or flips dealer GEX
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
Average IV across 1m–6m ~24.5% vs spot VIX 18.9% — term IV is higher while same‑day/front-end expiries suppress near‑term ATM IV, causing the apparent gap.
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Distorted front-end: same‑day expiries and ultra-low intraday ATM IV; elevated near‑dated put IVs through week 1–2, then gradual normalization into 3–6m.

⚠️Front‑end distortions and concentrated near‑dated put IV reduce attractiveness of naive short‑premium trades
📌Max‑pain cluster $640–$644 aligns with pinning risk and dealer GEX support, but fragile if spot breaks

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+254.4M)

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 108,683 (11.9% below spot)

OI concentrations: Put OI concentrated ~11.9% below spot with focal strikes ~640; structural put exposure across 500–600 band.

Verdict: High pin risk near $640; dealers likely short‑gamma supportive while OI holds, but breakouts can flip flow quickly

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $646.00 put / buy 2026-06-18 $625.00 put
Sell 5/22 646 put, buy 6/18 625 put to collect suppressed front‑month premium while owning back‑month protection.
Credit: $1.78-$2.17
Max loss: $0.01
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Reduce if price ≤640 or VIX>30; roll/downsize if rapid put OI erosion.
#2
Call diagonal
Sell 2026-05-22 $660.00 call / buy 2026-06-18 $685.00 call
Sell 5/22 660 call, buy 6/18 685 call to express short near term call exposure with back‑month hedge.
Credit: $2.95-$3.60
Max loss: $0.01
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Trim/close if spot>670, sustained IV spike, or broken pin.
#3
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal
Buy 2026-09-18 $640.00 call + sell 2026-06-18 $675.00 call
Buy 9/18 640 call, sell 6/18 675 call to shorten theta while keeping long upside.
Debit: $32.05-$39.17
Max loss: $39.17
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Exit or hedge on any of: 1) unrealized loss on position ≥30% of debit paid; 2) spot ≤90% of entry stock-equivalent level; 3) long-call delta falls below 0.40 with <60 days to short expiry; 4) front‑month IV rises >40% vs entry (buy protection or close short). If short 675 finishes ITM with >30 days left, roll short up 30–40 strikes or to next monthly +1–2 cycles for credit; if long loses >50% value or capital drawdown unacceptable, close long and keep proceeds/roll short to neutralize vega.

Risk Alerts

!Spot breach above $670 removes pin support and can flip dealer flow
!Rapid VIX jump (>30) or front‑end IV blowout invalidates selling setups
!Large option buybacks or concentrated call buying that erodes put OI
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 20, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.