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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $738.31EOD only

Max Pain

$726.00

Next expiry Jun 1, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.63

0.5% from close

Price Gap

-12.31

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

High premium

P/C OI

1.70

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

9.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 29, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 29, 2026 close

QQQ Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

ATM near-term IV 16.9%–19.9% vs VIX 18.17 — near-term IV is in-line to slightly rich vs VIX; avg IV 26.5% is higher but much of that is longer-dated.

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week ATM IVs are compressed (2026-04-16/17 ATM 16.9%), term structure rises into 30–90d (20%–23%) and back-months drift to mid-20s (Dec/Mar 23%–28%).

💰Concentrated call premium and heavy call flow at 630–635 (net call premium $173M–$181M) create an attractive environment to sell call-side premium.

🕰️Front-week IV is low (ATM 16.9%) — favor defined-risk structures and calendars/diagonals to capture term premium rather than naked short weeklies through earnings.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.0B)

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,493 (10.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Near-term GEX pin magnets at $635.00 (+$59.1M, -0.4% from spot), $640.00 (+$35.7M, +0.4%), $630.00 (+$31.1M, -1.2%) with Max Pain for next expirations clustering $618/$625/$600 — spot $637.40 is above MP.

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX (+$1.0B) and clustered call OI/GEX just below spot increase pinning probability around 630–640 and support call-side credit sales; pinning reduces tail risk for short call spreads but watch intraday drift toward MP levels.

Premium Opportunities

Call calendar

Sell 2026-04-24 $635.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $635.00 call

Sell the 2026-04-24 635 call and buy the 2026-05-22 635 call to collect front-month theta where call flow and GEX concentrate; trade expresses limited upside hedge with time premium.

Debit: $8.64-$10.56

Max loss: $10.56

BE: Path-dependent

Mgmt: Take profits on 50–65% of max debit reduction; if QQQ closes >$647.85 (1w EM upper) consider rolling short leg up or close to preserve long leg value.

Call credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $670.00/$715.00 call spread

Sell a ~30d call (target delta ~0.20) and buy a further out call (~5-point width) to capture elevated short-term call premium while capping upside loss.

Credit: $1.79-$2.19

Max loss: $42.81

BE: $672.19

Mgmt: Exit at 50–65% debit reduction or if price closes above the EM 2d/1w upper bands ($641.42/$647.85). Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (163%).

Put credit spread

Sell 2026-05-15 $615.00/$573.00 put spread

Sell a ~30d put (delta ~0.25) and buy protection ~10 pts lower to define risk; benefits from bullish flow and rising pin probability above support.

Credit: $4.40-$5.37

Max loss: $36.63

BE: $609.63

Mgmt: Close at 50–65% profit; tighten or roll if price approaches support $600.00 or if MP trends accelerate downward.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-16 and 2026-04-17 (±$4.02 and ±$7.49 moves) — avoid naked short exposure through these events.

!Gamma flip near ~$570 and heavy put OI below spot — a sustained move below $600 could accelerate negative gamma flow.

!Front-week IV is compressed (ATM 16.9%) — low near-term IV increases risk of sharp move; prefer defined-risk or calendar/diagonal structures.

!Large concentrated call flow at 630–635 may cause pinning; if price breaks above EM upper band ($641.42/$647.85) short-call positions can quickly become stressed.

!Unusual activity in 4/16–4/17 short-dated strikes (heavy volumes at $633–635 puts/calls) signals event-driven order flow and potential short-term liquidity shifts.

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.