thetaOwl
HomeOptionsQQQReports

QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $637.40EOD only
Max Pain
$625.00
Next expiry Apr 16, 2026
Expected Move
±$4.02
0.6% from close
Price Gap
-12.40
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
100
High premium
P/C OI
1.53
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.5/10
Consensus signal
Published snapshot: Apr 15, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Apr 15, 2026 close
QQQ Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Sell call credit spreads / call calendars around 630-640 pin magnets
Invalidation: Close below $633.38 (2d EM lower bound) or move below deterministic support $600.00
Confidence:
8 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -0.5 spot 3.1% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
ATM near-term IV 16.9%–19.9% vs VIX 18.17 — near-term IV is in-line to slightly rich vs VIX; avg IV 26.5% is higher but much of that is longer-dated.
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Front-week ATM IVs are compressed (2026-04-16/17 ATM 16.9%), term structure rises into 30–90d (20%–23%) and back-months drift to mid-20s (Dec/Mar 23%–28%).

💰Concentrated call premium and heavy call flow at 630–635 (net call premium $173M–$181M) create an attractive environment to sell call-side premium.
🕰️Front-week IV is low (ATM 16.9%) — favor defined-risk structures and calendars/diagonals to capture term premium rather than naked short weeklies through earnings.

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+1.0B)

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 109,493 (10.6% below spot)

OI concentrations: Near-term GEX pin magnets at $635.00 (+$59.1M, -0.4% from spot), $640.00 (+$35.7M, +0.4%), $630.00 (+$31.1M, -1.2%) with Max Pain for next expirations clustering $618/$625/$600 — spot $637.40 is above MP.

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX (+$1.0B) and clustered call OI/GEX just below spot increase pinning probability around 630–640 and support call-side credit sales; pinning reduces tail risk for short call spreads but watch intraday drift toward MP levels.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Call calendar
Sell 2026-04-24 $635.00 call / buy 2026-05-22 $635.00 call
Sell the 2026-04-24 635 call and buy the 2026-05-22 635 call to collect front-month theta where call flow and GEX concentrate; trade expresses limited upside hedge with time premium.
Debit: $8.64-$10.56
Max loss: $10.56
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Take profits on 50–65% of max debit reduction; if QQQ closes >$647.85 (1w EM upper) consider rolling short leg up or close to preserve long leg value.
#2
Call credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $670.00/$715.00 call spread
Sell a ~30d call (target delta ~0.20) and buy a further out call (~5-point width) to capture elevated short-term call premium while capping upside loss.
Credit: $1.79-$2.19
Max loss: $42.81
BE: $672.19
Mgmt: Exit at 50–65% debit reduction or if price closes above the EM 2d/1w upper bands ($641.42/$647.85). Liquidity warning: Liquidity constraints: long_call: Wide spread (163%).
#3
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $615.00/$573.00 put spread
Sell a ~30d put (delta ~0.25) and buy protection ~10 pts lower to define risk; benefits from bullish flow and rising pin probability above support.
Credit: $4.40-$5.37
Max loss: $36.63
BE: $609.63
Mgmt: Close at 50–65% profit; tighten or roll if price approaches support $600.00 or if MP trends accelerate downward.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-04-16 and 2026-04-17 (±$4.02 and ±$7.49 moves) — avoid naked short exposure through these events.
!Gamma flip near ~$570 and heavy put OI below spot — a sustained move below $600 could accelerate negative gamma flow.
!Front-week IV is compressed (ATM 16.9%) — low near-term IV increases risk of sharp move; prefer defined-risk or calendar/diagonal structures.
!Large concentrated call flow at 630–635 may cause pinning; if price breaks above EM upper band ($641.42/$647.85) short-call positions can quickly become stressed.
!Unusual activity in 4/16–4/17 short-dated strikes (heavy volumes at $633–635 puts/calls) signals event-driven order flow and potential short-term liquidity shifts.

Read the Theta analysis for QQQ for 2026-04-15. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.