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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $628.60EOD only

Max Pain

$608.00

Next expiry Apr 15, 2026

Expected Move

±$2.05

0.3% from close

Price Gap

-20.60

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

1.47

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 14, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 14, 2026 close

QQQ Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 14, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning); +1 GEX positive (+$1.2B); +0.5 VIX 18.36 (low-normal)

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

ATM IV ~19.6% (30–45 DTE) vs VIX 18.36 — roughly in line, slightly rich in near-term calls

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Near-term very low (day/1d ATM 13–18%), flattish 16–21% across 2–8 week expirations with modest lift into summer (22–24%) — comfortable for calendar/defined-risk wings but not screamingly rich.

💰Avg IV 25.0% but ATM term structure in 2–6 week window is ~19–20% — still workable for sellers

🧭Near-term IV depressed (1–3d ATM 13–17%) — avoid very short naked exposure into these expirations

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $628.60 is above max pain levels (nearest MP $612→$607 over next days) but extremely close to near-term pin magnets at $628–$630 (+0.1–0.2% from spot).

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$1.2B) — large positive gamma exposure concentrated at 629/630/625 is a magnet

Gamma flip: ~$570.00 — Gamma flip ~ $570 — below that dealer gamma sign flips and moves can accelerate; well below spot so not relevant to near-term trades.

OI concentrations: Large put OI at $570 (109,183), $540 (99,357), and concentrated call/pin flows at $623/$625/$630 (heavy call net flow and GEX concentration).

Verdict: Favorable — strong pin at $629–$630 supports selling call premium and structured call spreads; be cautious of the short time-frame unusual put/call flow around same strikes on weekly expiries.

Premium Opportunities

put/call credit spread (bear call spread)

Sell 625/630 call spread exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE)

Pin magnets at $625/$629/$630 (GEX +$58.8M at $629 and +$50.9M at $630) make it statistically harder for QQQ to run past these strikes. 31 DTE term shows ATM IV ~19.6% — reasonable theta with defined risk.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.60

BE: 626.10 (spot-adjusted depending on fill)

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–65% of max credit; if short strike tested (close within $0.50–$1.00) consider rolling up 1–2 strikes and out 2–4 weeks; cut losses if underlying breaks and closes above $639.75 (1w upper EM) or if spread exceeds 70% of max loss.

iron condor

Sell 615/610 put spread + 635/640 call spread exp 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

Wider two-sided defined-risk structure captures the 1-week EM band ($617.44–$639.75) and benefits from pinning around 629–630 while using the put floor/structural support (600 area) as downside protection. 45 DTE IV ~19.8% gives reasonable wing pricing.

Credit: $1.80-$2.30

Max loss: $3.70

BE: Lower: ~613.20 / Upper: ~637.70 (depends on net credit)

Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten/roll wings outward if price drifts toward a short strike by >$3; cut losses when either short strike is tested and spread value >50% of max loss.

cash-secured put

Sell 600 put exp 2026-05-15 (31 DTE) (CSP)

Structural put floor listed $500–$590 and max pain trend down to $600; selling 600 puts at ~31 DTE captures decent premium with support zones undercutting downside. Good if willing to own QQQ at ~600.

Credit: $1.00-$1.40

Max loss: Spot - strike + premium (≈ $27.60 if assigned)

BE: $598.00

Mgmt: Take profits at 50–65% of credit; roll down-and-out if price closes below $597 (10d EM lower ~613 then 2-week 607.90) or cut if price breaks below $590 convincingly.

defined-risk weekly call spread (speculative, tight)

Sell 630/635 call spread exp 2026-04-17 (3 DTE) — weekly defined-risk only

Very near-term pinning at $629–$630 and heavy call flow at 623/625/630 make a short-week defined-risk call spread attractive to harvest front-week theta. Use small sizing due to low near-term IV and unusual activity on the same-day strikes.

Credit: $0.40-$0.80

Max loss: $4.60

BE: $630.40

Mgmt: Aggressively take profits at 30–50% (fast theta); close by EOD if price trades through short strike; do not escalate into earnings or with large unusual flow present.

calendar (sell near-term call, buy back longer)

Sell 630 call 2026-04-24 (10 DTE) and buy 630 call 2026-05-29 (45 DTE)

Pinning at 629–630, a front-week short call (10 DTE ATM) sells fast theta while buying longer-dated protection. Term structure shows a modest term premium into late May — opportunity to collect weekly decay while defined risk via long leg.

Debit: $0.60-$1.20

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: Complex — depends on calendar price; targeted if spot remains near 628–631 into near expiry

Mgmt: Close the short leg at 50% of premium capture, or if spot >639.75; unwind if IV drops materially across term (>3–4 vol points).

Risk Alerts

!Heavy near-term unusual activity on 4/14–4/15 puts/calls at $620–$628 (very high volume multipliers) — could indicate dealer/flow adjustments or expirational pinning; manage sizing and avoid naked short exposure into those expirations.

!Gamma flip at ~$570 — a hard break below would accelerate downside; keep defined-risk if downside risk is material to sizing.

!Short-week expirations show very low quoted IV and bizarre last/trade values (some weekly calls show tiny last prices) — avoid selling large naked premium into these technical anomalies.

!Max pain trending lower (current series $612→$607) — if persistent directional shift occurs, adjust put-heavy positions; watch for multi-day drift toward MP.

!No earnings/ex-dividend data provided (absent) — confirm there are no scheduled earnings or ex-dividend events before selling through any multi-week expirations.

Read the Theta analysis for QQQ for 2026-04-14. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.