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QQQ

Invesco QQQ TrustClose $729.45EOD only

Max Pain

$724.00

Next expiry May 28, 2026

Expected Move

±$5.79

0.8% from close

Price Gap

-5.45

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.67

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

5.5/10

Range bias

Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects QQQ options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 27, 2026 close

QQQ Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 10, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 10, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (pinning); +1 GEX positive (pinning)

IV Environment

IV Regime

Normal

IV vs VIX

IV Avg 23.7% (VIX not provided) — mid-pack for QQQ; very low front-week IV (3d ATM 14.7%) vs 21–24% in the 2–8 week band

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Front-week IV depressed (3d 14.7%, 4d 16.9%, 5d 19.1%); IV rises into the 2–8 week window (~21–23%) creating the best selling opportunity in the 30–45 DTE range

📉Very low front-week IV (14.7% for 4/13) — avoid naked weekly premium selling

🧲Positive GEX $+277.2M means dealer pinning pressure around near-term strikes (610–615)

⚖️Mid-term IV (21–23%) is attractive for 30–45 DTE defined-risk credit spreads

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Spot $611.07 is Above max pain levels (nearest MPs $595 on 2026-04-10, $600 on 2026-04-13)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$277.2M) — strong positive gamma exposure concentrated near-the-money

Gamma flip: ~$582.00 — Below $582 dealers move from pinning to amplifying downside; risk of accelerated moves increases if price falls through $582

OI concentrations: Large put OI at $582 (229,132), $570 (108,729) and clustered near $573 (62,060) — call OI concentrations near $610–620 are smaller but have active flow (610/615/620)

Verdict: Favorable — pinning around 610–615 supports defined-risk credit selling; avoid naked weekly sells because front-week IV is depressed and institutional flow is concentrated

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell 2026-05-15 600/590 put spread (35 DTE)

35 DTE is inside the richer IV band (ATM ~21.4%). Pinning and large put walls below (582, 573) make the 600 short put more defensible. Defined-risk keeps assignment risk controlled.

Credit: $1.10-$1.60

Max loss: $8.90

BE: $598.90

Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit; roll down and out if price closes <605 for 2 consecutive sessions or if short strike is tested intraday; cut loss (buy back) at 70% of max loss or if price closes below $590

call spread

Sell 2026-05-15 615/625 call spread (35 DTE)

Dealer pinning centered near 610–615 creates call-side resistance; selling a 615/625 vertical captures richer mid-term vol while keeping defined risk if a rally accelerates.

Credit: $1.00-$1.45

Max loss: $8.55

BE: $616.00

Mgmt: Close at 50% realized profit; roll up and out if QQQ closes >618 on 2 consecutive days and IV rises; cut loss (buy back) at 70% of max loss or if price closes above $625

iron condor

Sell 2026-05-15 595/590 put x 625/630 call (35 DTE)

Wider two-sided defined-risk wing around the EM guardrails (1w EM ~606.66–615.49, 2d EM 607.93–614.21) — good when pinning keeps price near current band and mid-term IV is favorable.

Credit: $1.80-$2.40

Max loss: $3.20

BE: 592.20 / 627.40

Mgmt: Close at 50% profit on the iron condor; tighten or buy protection if either short strike is tested intraday; consider rolling wings out 2–3 weeks if a short strike is within 0.5% of spot at weekly close

calendar (diagonal)

Sell 2026-04-13 weekly 611 call, buy 2026-05-15 611 call (sell front-week, buy 35 DTE)

Take advantage of depressed front-week IV (14.7%) vs richer 35 DTE IV (~21%); works if pinning holds price around 610–615 into weekly expiry. Defined-risk (debit) limits downside.

Debit: $0.90-$1.30

Max loss: $1.30

BE: Premium paid (max loss = debit)

Mgmt: If weekly expiry shows short call ITM by >0.5% early in the week, consider rolling weekly short to next weekly for a credit or buy back to preserve calendar; exit entire structure if front-week IV normalizes above 20% or if spot moves >1.5% away from 611

Risk Alerts

!Gamma flip ~$582 — dealers flip from pinning to acceleration below that level; exit put-heavy credits if price drops and closes below $582

!Front-week IV collapsed (3d ATM 14.7%) — avoid naked weekly premium selling; better to sell 30–45 DTE

!Max pain cluster is lower (near-term MPs $595 → $600) — potential downside magnet over expirations; size puts conservatively

!Concentrated institutional flow at 611/615 calls (large call volume/net call flow) — downside: a heavy call buyer can force short-covering dynamics that push price up and make call-side spreads test

!Unusual activity flags: heavy volume in 608P (4/13) and 611–613 calls (4/13) — keep an eye on next-session flow for directional follow-through

How to Use These Reports

This theta reflects the market close on April 10, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.