Term structure: Front-week 7–21d ATM ~56% (compressed), a hump at 28–35d (66%–67%) — favorable for selling calendar and 30–45 DTE credit spreads
Spot vs MP: Spot $128.06 is below nearest MP $146 (MP by 4/10) and below mid-term MPs ($140/$145); SPOT is 12.3% below MP trend center per base score
GEX regime: Trending (GEX = -$40.3M) — negative GEX indicates dealers are short gamma and likely to exacerbate directional moves
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Gamma flip ~ $120 — below this dealers flip to long-gamma hedging; current spot above flip so dealer hedges amplify moves (trend risk)
OI concentrations: Call OI wall $140-$155 (large calls at $150/$155); Put floor concentrated at $100-$120 (notably 20,845 at $120 put), plus near-term put clusters at $130/$120/$110
#1put spread
Sell 125/120 put spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish-tail protection while collecting elevated premia. 125 strike has heavy flow/OI and sits near support cluster (125/130 puts active); 35 DTE band shows elevated IV (ATM ~66%), improving theta capture without naked risk.
Mgmt: Take profit at 65% of max credit; roll down 5 points if price <125 and spread still >30% of max loss; cut to flat if PLTR < $120 (gamma flip) or if spread value >50% of max loss.
#2iron condor
Sell 120/115 put spread + 140/145 call spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Two-sided defined-risk to capture rich IV in 30–45 DTE while respecting dealer negative-GEX trend: short put side limited width and call side sits at/just above dealer call walls ($140-$150) where sellers are paid to be short. Net width 5 per side keeps max loss manageable.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; if either short strike tested (price <122 or >138) close or roll that wing out 10–15 DTE and 5 strikes wider; flatten both wings if PLTR < $120 or > $150 or if position loses >50% of max loss on single wing.
#3covered call (buy-write)
Buy 100 shares, sell 135 call 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
If you want bullish equity exposure with income: 135C sits near resistance band (135–140) and offers sizeable premium given IV hump ~66%; you earn premium while holding underlying. Works when you prefer stock exposure + theta.
Mgmt: Buy back calls at 70% of premium or if PLTR rallies above 135; consider rolling up-and-out if assigned and bullish; cut equity if PLTR < $120 (gamma flip) or if paper loss >15%.
#4put spread (shorter-dated tactical)
Sell 125/120 put spread 2026-04-24 (14 DTE) — use only as defined-risk if willing to trade weekly
Front-week vols compressed (ATM ~56%) but 2-week puts still pay; use short-dated defined-risk spreads to harvest gamma/time decay while keeping risk defined — only for traders comfortable with higher event risk.
Mgmt: Close at 75% of max profit given short DTE; roll down 1–2 strikes if price approaches 125; avoid entering if any idiosyncratic catalyst within expiry window.
!Gamma flip ~$120 — if PLTR closes below $120, dealer hedging regime changes and trend acceleration can blow up short puts; exit/hedge below this level.
!Negative net GEX (-$40.3M) — dealers are short gamma; trending moves are more likely and can hurt one-sided credit positions.
!Heavy bullish flow and OI at $130–$150 (notably large buys at $130 and big call OI at $150/$155) — institutional call accumulation could push price higher and threaten call-side shorts.
!IV elevated (Avg IV 67.2%) — favorable for sellers but also signals event risk; avoid naked short delta into unknown corporate or market catalysts.
!Earnings on 2026-05-04 (in ~3.5 weeks) — for positions that cross this date prefer defined-risk or close before the announcement; avoid naked short options through earnings.