base 5; +1 high IV (Avg IV 69.4%); +1 deep option liquidity; -1 spot 10.6% from MP / GEX negative
Term structure: Front-month elevated (1d ATM 64.9%) with a mid-term hump (29d/36d ATM 65.6%/64.5%) — keeps calendar/diagonal opportunities viable but single-leg short exposure is expensive.
Spot vs MP: Below (Spot $130.49 vs Max Pain ~ $146 — spot is ~10.6% below MP)
GEX regime: Trending (Total GEX -$79.9M) — dealers short gamma, moves are likely to accelerate
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120 dealers flip to long gamma/positive hedging; trending dynamics change — avoid adding naked risk across the flip
OI concentrations: Call wall 150-160 (heavy OI at 150/155/160), Put floor 100-120 (notable put OI at 120 and 100; 120 put OI=20,722)
#1put spread
Sell 125/120 put spread 2026-05-15 (~36 DTE)
125 put has heavy short-dated demand (4/17 mid ~3.45) and put OI clusters at 120/130; high IV (Avg IV 69.4%) inflates premium. Defined-risk short put spread captures rich premium while limiting downside in a negative-GEX, trending environment.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit; if price trades below 123.00 (within ~2 points of long 120) consider rolling down/close; cut losses if spread breaches long leg (price <120) or if position loses >70% of its maximum adverse value
#2iron condor
Sell 120/115 put and 150/155 call iron condor 2026-05-15 (~36 DTE)
Wide wings use strong call OI wall at 150-155 as a resistance magnet while defined put wing at 120-115 uses put floor protection. High IV lets you collect meaningful wing premium while keeping defined risk in place — suitable if you expect range-bound action toward MP but remain cautious about trending risk.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; if either short strike is tested (under 122 or over 148), tighten or buy protection — roll the tested side out 10-15 pts and widen wings if still collecting acceptable credit; cut if either short strike is breached by >2% and IV spikes
#3covered call
Buy stock / sell 135 call 2026-05-15 (~36 DTE)
If you own PLTR, selling a 135 call collects rich premium (4/17 mid for 135 call ~3.80; May will be higher given term structure). This generates yield while keeping upside capped near 135 — aligns with MP above spot and concentrated call OI. Good for conservative income when you want directional long exposure.
Mgmt: Close at 50-60% of premium collected if shares run up toward 132-133; consider rolling up+out if assigned risk acceptable; buy back calls if stock drops below 128 to reset cost basis
#4calendar (buy backspread / diagonal)
Sell near-term 130 call (2026-04-17), buy 130 call 2026-05-15 (calendar/diagonal)
Front-week IV (1d ATM 64.9% / 8d ATM 56.5%) shows front-end rich vol; selling the near-term 130 call (heavy vol and OI at 130) while buying a longer-dated call lets you collect rapid front-week theta while retaining directional optionality. Use small size due to negative GEX.
Mgmt: Close front leg after >65% of premium decay or if spot moves >2.5% against the short; if short strike is tested with 3-4 days left, roll front leg out 1+ week or close entirely
!Total GEX -$79.9M (Trending) — negative gamma can accelerate moves against short premium; prefer defined-risk structures.
!Gamma flip ~$120 — if price approaches/breaches 120, dealer dynamics change; close or aggressively hedge credit positions below this level.
!Max Pain series near $145-$149 — asymmetric call OI wall above spot (150-160) can magnet price upward, creating one-sided risk to naked put sellers.
!Unusual call flow into Apr 10 strikes around 130-138 (large vol/OI) — short-dated directional activity may create near-term pinning/vol spikes; avoid naked short through Apr 10 expiry.
!Earnings 2026-05-04 (~25 days) — not within 2 weeks but close enough that you should avoid large naked short positions that would have to be held through the print.