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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $136.88EOD only
Max Pain
$135.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$6.08
4.5% from close
Price Gap
-1.88
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
16
Low premium
P/C OI
0.96
Balanced positioning
Consensus
7.5/10
Neutral tilt
Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 22, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 9, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 9, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings slated 2026-05-04 (25 days). Regime: High vol, Trending gamma, Mixed flow, spot below max-pain — dealers are net short gamma (GEX -$79.9M) which amplifies moves. Best strategy depends on view: premium sellers can collect elevated short-term vols into/through earnings using iron condors on expiries that clear the print (e.g., 2026-05-08), while volatility buyers (straddle) are attractive if you expect a >EM gap or directional move given heavy put buying and frequent beats historically. Key risk: dealer short-gamma can create large gap moves vs expected move (EM 1w ±$8.70), producing fast losses vs modeled breakevens.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; -1 spot 10.6% from MP
Most important: Watch IV term structure into the May 4 print (ATM IV jumps now: 1d 64.9% then mid-May 65.6%); trajectory determines whether it’s a crush play (sell premium) or a long-vol play.
📅Earnings confirmed for 2026-05-04 (25 days).
⚠️Dealers net short gamma (GEX -$79.9M) — expect amplified intraday moves and larger-than-EM gaps.
🔻Heavy institutional put premium buys at $130 and $120 (Top Premium Flow entries) — downside protection is concentrated here.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
Gamma Regime
Trending
Flow Regime
Mixed
Spot vs MP
Below
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Gamma flip ~120 (put OI concentration 20,722; ~8.0% below spot) — below $120 dealers flip to amplify moves

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (25 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 2026-04-10 (1d): 7: $126.94 - $134.04 (±$3.55, 2.7%)
  • 2026-04-17 (8d): 8: $121.79 - $139.19 (±$8.70, 6.7%)
  • 2026-05-08 (29d): 9: $111.29 - $149.69 (±$19.20, 14.7%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Front-end spike: 2026-04-10 (1d) ATM 64.9% then drops to 56.5% (2026-04-17) and rises again into mid-May (2026-05-08 ATM 65.6%). Clear earnings-related term-structure bump for early-May.

Crush estimate: ~8 vol pts (1d ATM 64.9% to nearby post-event weeks ~56-57%), larger effective crush vs expirations that span the print if IV falls back to mid-50s after May 4.

Skew: Put-heavy flow and OI (P/C OI 1.03; heavy net put premium at $130/$120) — skew modestly richer on puts, but calls have concentrated OI at higher strikes.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 75% (3/4 recent quarters beat or matched; 2025-03 matched)

Avg move vs expected: Not explicitly provided in pre-computed fields; observable: stock often posts modest upside surprises but not consistently blowout moves.

Directional bias: Mild upside bias (historical EPS surprises lean positive)

Key Levels

1$120.00
2$126.94
3$130.00
4$134.04
5$139.19
6$120 gamma flip

Flow Highlights

Heavy net put premium at $130 (Top Premium Flow: $130 Net $-12,822,428) and $120 (Net $-11,504,394).

Large institutional put buying at 130/120 — defensive positioning that can support the downside and increase demand for protection; dealers short those puts amplify downside hedging if price drops toward those strikes.

Unusual concentrated Apr-10 call activity around 130-138 (many expirations showing 100x+ vol/OI ratios).

Short-dated directional/options flow ahead of short-term events — could be speculative gamma that compresses into the May print or reflects positioning rotations.

Strategies

Iron Condor (post-earnings credit)
Sell 2026-05-08 126/121 put spread and 139/144 call spread (credit iron condor). Strikes selected to sit just outside the 1-week EM guardrails.
Credit: $2.00-$3.00
Max loss: $3.00
Max gain: $3.00
BE: Lower BE 123.00 / Upper BE 142.00 (approx, depending on executed credit)
Trigger: Enter 1-3 days before earnings if IV into May-08 stays elevated relative to 1-week levels and you can collect >$2.00 credit.
High front-end IV and historical modest beats favor premium selling if you accept limited tail risk; credit cushions IV crush and time decay post-print.
Outperforms: Stock stays within EM post-earnings (May-08 range $111.29-$149.69) and IV reverts ~8 vols.
Underperforms: Large gap >EM (move beyond short spread wings) or violent dealer gamma-induced moves that gap through wings.
Long straddle (IV buyer)
Buy 2026-05-08 130 straddle (buy 130C + 130P exp 2026-05-08).
Debit: $18.00-$21.00
Max loss: $21.00
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: Approx 130 / 130 +/- cost => ~111.0 / 149.0 (matches EM if cost ~19.2)
Trigger: Enter 1-2 days pre-earnings or same-day if IV isn't ripping higher — use only if you expect move >EM or want directional optionality.
Use when anticipating a surprise/guidance-driven gap; current ATM IV for May-08 is 65.6% so premium is rich but justifiable if you expect >~$19 move.
Outperforms: Actual price move exceeds EM by >20-30% or volatility expands further beyond current elevated levels.
Underperforms: Stock pins near current spot and IV collapses post-print (crush > cost).
Bull call spread (defined-risk directional)
Buy 2026-05-15 130C / sell 150C (debit call spread).
Debit: $6.00-$9.00
Max loss: $9.00
Max gain: $11.00
BE: $136.00
Trigger: Enter after a positive pre-earnings IV move or into a confirmed catalyst; better if you see heavy buying at higher calls (OI at 150/155) translating into upside flow.
Defined risk levered upside exposure that benefits if the stock moves toward concentrated call OI (150-155) while limiting cost vs outright calls.
Outperforms: Post-earnings directional upside toward call OI walls (150-155) materializes; limited IV decay helps since spread sells some call premium.
Underperforms: Price remains range-bound or falls; or IV collapses sharply prior to entry making debit expensive.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM 1w ±$8.70 but dealer short-gamma (GEX -$79.9M) can create faster, larger gaps—manage wing widths/size accordingly.
!IV crush: ATM IV front-run to May-08 ~65.6% implies significant premium; sellers benefit if IV falls ~8 vols post-print, buyers need moves exceeding cost to overcome crush.
!Liquidity: Chain is liquid around 130-150 (large OI at 150/155/160) but some strikes (e.g., 121, 119) show thin OI — prefer spreads near high OI strikes.
!Sizing: Because of negative GEX and put-heavy positioning, use smaller sizing or defined-risk structures to avoid large instantaneous P&L swings on gap moves.
!Flow tail risk: Heavy institutional put buying at 130/120 could accentuate downside coverage; avoid naked short puts through those strikes without robust hedges.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into May 4 — whether ATM IV for 2026-05-08 stays elevated (>60%) or shrinks toward mid-50s.
?Unusual activity: Apr-10 concentrated call vols at 130-138 and Apr-10 put flow at 127/129 — could presage repositioning ahead of the May print.
?Price action around support cluster (120, 126.94, 130) — dealer hedging likely active near these levels (gamma flip ~120).
?SPY/QQQ risk appetite and broad market moves pre-earnings that can widen PLTR gaps vs its historical EM.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 9, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.