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PLTR

Palantir Technologies Inc.Close $137.41EOD only
Max Pain
$134.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$2.71
2.0% from close
Price Gap
-3.41
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
8
Low premium
P/C OI
0.97
Balanced positioning
Consensus
6.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects PLTR options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
PLTR Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer earnings report is available for May 21, 2026.

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Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 2026-05-04 (approx 28 days out). IV elevated (60.1% avg), but term structure shows no sharp kink, suggesting earnings date not fully priced. Strong pinning forces near spot, favoring short premium strategies, but contradictory flow (net premium -$281.1M) and high IV add risk.

Confidence:
5.5 / 10
base 5; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +0.5 spot 1.3% from MP; -1 GEX/flow contradict
Most important: GEX +$40.4M creates strong pinning near $146-$155, but net premium flow is negative, indicating institutional hedging or bearish bets that could override pinning.
📅Earnings expected 2026-05-04, 28 days out — IV may not be fully priced yet.
📊100% EPS beat rate historically, but no explicit move data — directional bias likely up.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 60.1%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$40.4M)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem -$281.1M, P/C 0.58)
Spot vs MP
Above (spot $147.93 vs MP $146)
Gamma flip: ~$120.00 — Below $120, dealers amplify moves; far from spot, so pinning dominates near-term.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-04 (28 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (18d): ±$12.60 (8.5%)
  • 5/01 (25d): ±$14.77 (10.0%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Flat to slightly elevated (52.6% 4d, 49.0% 18d, 48.7% 25d), no sharp kink at earnings date, suggesting IV not fully spiked.

Crush estimate: ~10-15 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~45-50%

Skew: P/C OI ratio 1.08 shows balanced OI, but P/C volume 0.58 indicates more call trading.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No explicit historical move data provided, but 100% EPS beat rate suggests positive bias.

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats imply upward drift post-earnings

Key Levels

1$146.00 (max pain 4/10)
2$150.00 (call OI cluster + GEX)
3$155.00 (call OI wall + GEX)
4$140.00 (put OI cluster)
5$130.00 (put OI cluster)

Flow Highlights

Heavy $150C 4/17 buying (18,570 vol vs 26,018 OI) with net premium +$40.4M

Bullish earnings bet targeting upside through $150

Large OTM put flow at $320P 6/18 (12,000 vol vs 700 OI), net premium -$207.6M

Institutional hedging or bearish protection far OTM, not near-term earnings play

Strategies

Short strangle
Sell $140P x $155C 4/24
Credit: $3.50-$4.50
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $4.00
BE: 136.0/159.0
Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings if IV >50%
High IV (49.0% for 4/24) and strong pinning near $146-$155 favor premium selling. 100% EPS beat rate reduces tail risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays within $140-$155, IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Gap exceeds EM bounds ($135.33-$160.53)
Bull call spread
Buy $145C / Sell $155C 4/24
Max loss: $5.00
Max gain: $5.00
BE: $150.00
Trigger: Enter if spot dips near $145 support
Targets upside to $155 call OI wall, capped risk, leverages historical EPS beat bias and GEX pinning upward.
Outperforms: Stock rallies to $155+ post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock stays below $150 or gaps down
Long straddle
Buy $148 straddle 4/24
Max loss: $12.60
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: 135.4/160.6
Trigger: Enter if IV <50% pre-earnings to avoid crush
IV not extremely elevated, 100% beat rate suggests potential for larger-than-expected move, but crush risk is high.
Outperforms: Actual move exceeds EM ($12.60) by >20%
Underperforms: Stock pins near $148, IV crushes post-earnings

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: EM ±8.5% ($12.60) for 4/24, but historical beats could drive bigger upside move.
!IV crush: IV ~49% for 4/24, likely drops 10-15 pts post-earnings, hurting long premium strategies.
!Liquidity: High (2.7M OI, 307K volume), tight spreads near spot.
!Sizing: Keep short premium positions small due to negative net flow indicating hedging pressure.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory into late April for earnings spike
?Unusual OTM put activity at $320+ for hedging signals
?Spot action relative to $146 max pain and $150 GEX level
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.