PDD Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 strong put premium dominance; +1 GEX pinning supports mean reversion; -1 P/C volume ratio neutral; -0.5 IV elevated but not extreme

Watch next session: $95 PUT OI (22,484) for defense; Spot reaction near $101 Max Pain; Any call flow to challenge $115-$120 OI walls

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$46.7M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.06 — neutral/slightly put-leaning

P/C OI ratio: 0.74 — moderate call lean in positioning

Aggregate flow is bearish, dominated by large, high-strike put purchases. While positioning (OI) shows a call lean, today's volume and premium paid tell a story of significant downside hedging or bearish speculation, particularly in the April and September expirations.

Notable Prints

PDD 4/17 $125 Put

Vol: 3,830

OI: 383

Vol/OI: 10.0x

IV: 77.2%

Notional: ~$47.9M (3830 * 100 * $125)

Intent: Fresh bearish speculation or aggressive hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: High IV (77%) suggests expensive premium paid for downside protection far OTM. This is a large, new position signaling significant concern about a sharp drop. Ranked #1 due to high notional and vol/OI.

PDD 9/18 $170 Put

Vol: 1,800

OI: 300

Vol/OI: 6.0x

IV: 54.9%

Notional: ~$30.6M (1800 * 100 * $170)

Intent: Long-term downside hedge or bearish bet

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: Extremely OTM strike, 6 months out. The high notional value and elevated IV point to a large, strategic hedge against a major decline, not a near-term tactical play. Consistent with institutional portfolio protection.

PDD 4/17 $96 Put

Vol: 2,190

OI: 231

Vol/OI: 9.5x

IV: 36.1%

Notional: ~$21.0M (2190 * 100 * $96)

Intent: Near-term directional put buying

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: Strike is near the gamma flip estimate (~$95) and just below spot. Lower IV suggests this is a more direct bet on a move below $96 in the next 17 days, complementing the OTM hedges.

PDD 4/10 $99 Put

Vol: 1,477

OI: 183

Vol/OI: 8.1x

IV: 34.3%

Notional: ~$14.6M (1477 * 100 * $99)

Intent: Short-term directional put buying

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: Targets a move below $99 within 10 days. This, combined with the $96P flow, builds a bearish case for the $96-$99 support zone in April.

PDD 4/2 $112 Put

Vol: 370

OI: 101

Vol/OI: 3.7x

IV: 125.5%

Notional: ~$4.1M (370 * 100 * $112)

Intent: Lottery ticket or tail-risk hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish/income)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (125%) for a weekly option 2 days out. Very low probability of finishing ITM, but someone is paying a huge premium for protection against a crash above $112. More noise than core signal, but notable for its extremity.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Top premium flow calls are at $115 and $110, but size is dwarfed by put flow.

Put additions: Major additions at $125P, $170P (Sept), $96P, and $99P (April). This is the dominant flow.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$7.2M) indicates a pinning/mean-reverting regime, which aligns with heavy put buying (negative delta) as spot is above max pain. Flow is betting against the pin.

OI clusters: Major CALL walls at $130 (51K OI), $120 (34K OI), $125 (22K OI). Major PUT support at $95 (22K OI), $75 (17K OI), $100 (16K OI).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence. The $125P (April) and $170P (Sept) are classic institutional hedging prints—large size, OTM, elevated IV, longer-dated.

Max pain context: Spot ($102.18) is just above nearest max pain ($101). Positive GEX and put OI at $95/$100 create a magnetic pull toward $101-$100. The bearish flow is betting this support breaks.

Signal vs Noise

~The $112 Put (4/2) with 125% IV is likely a short-dated lottery ticket or a closing trade, not a meaningful directional signal.

~The $130 Put (4/17) with Vol 3890 vs OI 1938 (2.0x) could be a roll or adjustment of an existing position, not purely fresh bearish flow.

~The $70 Put (10/16) is small volume and may be part of a far OTM put spread or a closing trade.

Key Conclusions

🐻Flow is bearish: Net premium -$46.7M driven by large, high-strike put purchases.

🛡️Institutional hedging evident in OTM $125P (April) and $170P (Sept) prints.

🧲Positive GEX suggests pinning pressure near $101 Max Pain; bearish flow is betting against it.

🧱Key levels: Resistance at $120/$130 call walls. Support at $95/$100 put clusters.

Read the Flow analysis for PDD. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.