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ORCL

Oracle CorporationClose $181.46EOD only

Max Pain

$180.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.10

5.0% from close

Price Gap

-1.46

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.88

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects ORCL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

ORCL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 2, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 2, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 14, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral with a defined bearish lean below $147. Confidence: 8/10. The regime has shifted from pinning to trending with negative GEX, aligning with massive bearish premium flow, creating a coherent downside bias.

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (both negative/bearish); +1 spot 0.4% from MP; no conflicts.

Supports: GEX -$12.7M (trending), Net Premium -$102.7M (bearish), P/C OI 0.86
Conflicts: Spot near max pain ($147) provides near-term friction.

⚠️Regime shift: GEX flipped from +$4.2M to -$12.7M, changing from pinning to trending.

💰Net premium -$102.7M driven by deep OTM put buying ($260, $270, $250) indicates structural hedging.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 55.9% is extremely high — strong edge for premium sellers, expensive for directional buyers.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$12.7M indicates dealers are net short gamma — spot moves will be amplified, supporting trending action.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed but net bearish: P/C ratios near 1 show balanced near-term activity, but massive negative net premium reveals institutional put hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot at $146.38 vs MP $147 — minimal gravitational pull, easily overridden by trending GEX.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Negative GEX is persistent, max pain ladder shows a rising long-term trend ($147 → $165), and bearish flow is structural. The regime supports a multi-week trending bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week

$138.56$154.21

Negative GEX accelerates moves; break below $135 gamma flip triggers faster selling.

Next 2 weeks

$135.21$157.56

Flow and GEX alignment supports continued pressure; resistance at $154.21.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $147 (2026-03-27); $145 (2026-04-02); $147 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 1w $138.56/$154.21

Support: $135.00 · $90.00

Resistance: $300.00 · $170.00 · $250.00

Gamma flip: ~$135.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,007

Structural: Massive call OI walls at $170-$330 cap rallies; put floor at $90-$135 provides distant but defined support.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-12.7M

DEX: +51.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$135 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 13,007)

NTM gamma: Gamma flip ~$135; below this, dealer hedging adds to selling pressure. Above spot, call gamma is minimal, offering little resistance to rallies.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 55.9% is extreme — premium selling has high theoretical edge.

Term structure: Upward sloping near-term (46.3% 4/10 → 57.9% 6/18), indicating persistent high vol expectations. No sharp earnings kink yet (earnings 6/10).

Skew: Extreme OTM put skew (e.g., $260P 4/17 at 168% IV) — these are likely expensive tail hedges; selling them via put spreads or calendars captures decay.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$102.7M bearish; P/C vol 0.94, P/C OI 0.86 (balanced near-term, bearish structurally).

Directional prints: $260P 4/17 vol 3,325 vs OI 250 (13x) at 168% IV — likely bought for tail protection. $155C 4/17 premium +$3.3M — could be bought calls for a bounce or sold covered calls; the net premium context favors sold calls.

Unusual: $139P 4/10 vol 2,052 vs OI 229 (9x) at 50% IV — fresh OTM put activity near the 1w EM low.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$135 — a break accelerates dealer selling.

!Extreme IV (55.9%) can compress rapidly, hurting long premium and helping short premium positions.

!Massive OTM put flow ($260-$300) indicates latent tail risk fear.

!Spot hovering near max pain ($147) could cause short-term chop before trending.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Iron condor	Moderate	Sell $140/$135 put spread & sell $152.5/$157.5 call spread exp 4/17. Anchored to 1w EM bounds.	Negative GEX increases breakout risk; VIX is high.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Weak	Sell $140/$135 put spread exp 4/17. Collects premium but aligns against bearish GEX/flow.	Trending regime breaks below $135.
Covered call	Moderate	Own stock, sell $150 or $152.5 call exp 4/17. Capitalizes on high call premium and capped upside.	Stock declines outweigh premium collected.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $145 put 6/18 (IV 57.9%), sell $145 put 4/17 (IV 48.2%). Reverse put calendar betting on near-term pin/decay.	Spot rallies sharply, hurting both legs.
Long calls	Weak	Avoid — expensive IV, negative GEX, and bearish flow contradict.	Vol crush and spot decline.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate-Strong	Buy $145/$140 bear put spread exp 4/17. Direct expression of trending, bearish regime.	Spot pins at max pain, wasting premium.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $120 call 1/2027 (IV ~54.6%), sell $150 call 4/17. Leverages long-dated low delta against high near-term premium.	Spot stagnation or decline erodes LEAPS value.
Short stock	Moderate-Strong	Short stock with a stop above $155 (1w EM high proxy). Direct bearish expression.	Violent squeeze if spot reclaims $150.
Long stock	Weak	Only with a tight stop below $135. Contradicts regime signals.	Accelerated selling on gamma flip break.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread

Buy $145 put, sell $140 put exp 2026-04-17.

Directly capitalizes on the trending, bearish regime (negative GEX, bearish flow) with defined risk. Strikes target a move to the 1w EM low.

Debit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: $3.20

BE: $143.20

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit (spread value ~$3.50). Exit if spot closes above $148.

Traders with a bearish directional view seeking defined risk.

Reverse Put Calendar

Buy $145 put 2026-06-18, sell $145 put 2026-04-17.

Monetizes the steep near-term term structure (48.2% vs 57.9%) by selling higher-IV near-term put and buying longer-dated. Profits if spot stays near $145 through April expiry, benefiting from accelerated decay of the short leg.

Debit: $4.00-$5.00

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: Complex; optimal if spot near $145 at April expiry.

Mgmt: Close before April expiry if short put decays to ~10% of its value. Exit if spot moves beyond $138 or $152.

Volatility traders with a neutral-to-bearish spot view.

Short Stock with Call Hedge

Short stock at market (~$146.38), buy $150 call exp 2026-04-17 for protection.

The highest-conviction directional play given the regime alignment. The call hedge defines risk against a squeeze above $150. Benefits directly from negative GEX amplifying downward moves.

Debit: N/A

Max loss: ~$4.38 per share (difference between short entry and call strike plus call premium)

BE: $145.62

Mgmt: Cover short on a close below $138.56 (1w EM low). Stop out if spot closes above $150.

Active traders with high risk tolerance and margin capacity.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot breaks below $145 and 15-min RSI < 40 → Enter $145/$140 bear put spread exp 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $149 (testing resistance) → Sell $150/$155 call spread exp 4/17 (adds to bearish bias).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $135 (gamma flip) → Take profits on all bearish positions (spreads, short stock).

EXITSpot closes above $150 → Exit all bearish directional positions (spreads, short stock).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: ORCL is in a bearish trending regime (negative GEX) with structural hedging flow, favoring directional shorts and bearish spreads. Invalidation is a close above $150. Top plays: 1) Bear put spread (best for defined-risk bearish), 2) Reverse put calendar (best for vol traders), 3) Short stock with hedge (best for high-conviction directional). Use 30-45 DTE for core positions given the multi-week duration.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on April 2, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.