Term structure: Humped at 4/24 (87%), dips at 5/08 (77%), then rises again
Spot vs MP: Below max pain by 9.8% (spot $49.59 vs MP $55)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$2.0M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$2.00 — Extremely low gamma flip at ~$2 suggests pinning forces are weak below current price; major support at $45-$50 OI
OI concentrations: Major put walls: $2.50 (10,276 OI), $20 (8,283), $30 (7,790), $50 (6,289). Call walls far OTM: $150 (12,843), $105 (10,449)
#1put spread
Sell $45/$40 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
High IV (89.8%) at 45 DTE. Short strike aligns with major OI support at $45 (4,294 OI). Provides a 9.3% buffer from spot. Defined risk suits low liquidity.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Roll down/out if $45 tested. Exit if price closes below $44. Assume wide bid-ask.
#2cash-secured put
Sell $42.5 put 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Extreme IV (86.2%) yields high premium. Strike is 14.3% below spot, below expected move ($9.93). Willing to own stock at a net $39 cost basis. Use only if comfortable with assignment.
Mgmt: Manage at 50% profit. Roll down/out at 21 DTE if challenged. Close before earnings (5/12).
#3call credit spread
Sell $55/$60 call spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Spot is below max pain ($55). Call wall at $55 provides resistance. High IV (84.8%) for short-dated premium. Defined risk and positive GEX supports range-bound action.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit if price closes above $54. Use weekly due to high IV and pinning thesis.
#4iron condor
Sell $45/$42.5P x $55/$58C 2026-04-24 (24 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between major OI levels ($45P, $55C). High IV (87%) at this expiry. Positive GEX environment favors range. Defined risk with high PoP.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Leg out of tested side. Exit entire position if price breaches either short strike. Expect slippage on multi-leg entry/exit.
!Earnings estimated 2026-05-12 — Close all non-leap positions before announcement. Never sell naked through earnings.
!Extremely low liquidity — Wide bid-ask spreads will impact fills and management. Assume mid-point for credit estimates.
!Gamma flip ~$2 is far below — Weak pinning support on sharp moves below $45 OI level.
!Net premium flow is negative (-$11.5M), indicating more premium paid than collected, suggesting institutional long volatility positioning.
!Unusual activity in deep OTM puts ($30p 4/10) and calls ($85c 7/17) — monitor for volatility skew shifts.
!Major OI concentrations are far from spot ($2.5p, $150c) — these may act as weak magnets but reflect a wide potential range.