NVO Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 strong net premium bearish; +1 high P/C ratio; +0.5 GEX/flow alignment; -1 high IV regime (vol selling possible)

Watch next session: $35 PUT OI cluster for defense; Flow into $40 CALLs for resistance test; Any large call buying in the $25-$30 zone

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$82.1M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.50 — put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.74 — moderate put lean in volume vs. call lean in OI

Aggressive put premium selling dominates the flow, with massive bearish bets concentrated in the $50-$65 strike zone. The high P/C volume ratio and negative GEX create a pro-cyclical, momentum-amplifying environment. The OI structure shows a long-term call bias, but today's volume is decisively bearish.

Notable Prints

NVO 4/17 $65 Put

Vol: 10,000

OI: 1,250

Vol/OI: 8.0x

IV: 131.3%

Notional: ~$34.9M

Intent: Fresh directional put buying (bearish bet) or volatility sale

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (volatility crush play)

Read-through: This is the single largest premium driver (-$34.9M net). The 131% IV suggests it's likely a volatility sale (short put), but the sheer size and distance from spot ($65 vs. $36.75) indicate a defined-risk bearish bet or part of a complex spread. It's a major bearish signal.

NVO 6/18 $60 Put

Vol: 10,002

OI: 3,762

Vol/OI: 2.7x

IV: 74.1%

Notional: ~$23.0M

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or roll from nearer dates

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (yield/vol sale)

Read-through: Second largest premium outflow (-$23.0M). The 74% IV is high but lower than the $65P, making a directional bearish bet more plausible. Adds to the bearish pressure for Q2.

NVO 9/18 $25 Call

Vol: 2,352

OI: 289

Vol/OI: 8.1x

IV: 70.8%

Notional: ~$4.1M

Intent: Long-dated, deep ITM call purchase (leverage/hedge)

Dual read: Bought (bullish leverage) or sold (covered call writing)

Read-through: The only major bullish premium inflow (+$4.1M). Likely a stock replacement or leveraged bullish position for 2026, given it's deep ITM ($25 vs. $36.75). This contrasts with the near-term bearish flow, suggesting a divergence between short-term fear and long-term conviction.

NVO 4/17 $50 Put

Vol: 10,022

OI: 4,390

Vol/OI: 2.3x

IV: 0.0%

Notional: ~$13.7M

Intent: Spread leg or volatility sale (IV of 0% is a data anomaly, likely very low)

Dual read: Part of a put spread (bearish) or short put (neutral/bullish)

Read-through: Massive volume contributing to bearish premium. The 0% IV is suspicious but suggests a very cheap option, possibly a far OTM leg of a bear put spread anchored by the $65 or $60 Puts.

NVO 4/2 $40 Put

Vol: 2,682

OI: 656

Vol/OI: 4.1x

IV: 106.6%

Notional: Part of net $-530k flow at $40 strike

Intent: Short-dated hedge or directional bet below spot

Dual read: Bought (protective/bearish) or sold (premium sell)

Read-through: High IV (106.6%) for a weekly option indicates fear or expensive hedging. This is a direct bet on a move below $40 before Friday.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Long-dated, deep ITM $25C (Sep '26). Near-term, calls are being sold/outpaced.

Put additions: Massive additions in $50-$65 strikes across Apr, May, and Jun expiries. Also defensive $35-$40 puts.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Negative GEX (-$2.2M) aligns with bearish flow, creating a pro-cyclical, momentum-amplifying regime.

OI clusters: Major Call OI: $200C (42K - legacy/outlier), $40C (23K+20K). Major Put OI: $50P (24.5K), $45P (24K), $35P (21.6K+20.8K). Creates a strong put wall at $35 and call resistance at $40.

Hedging evidence: Yes. The $35 Put OI cluster (42K+ contracts) is a major defensive line. The high-volume, high-IV put buying in weekly ($40P) and monthly ($36P) expiries suggests active hedging.

Max pain context: Spot ($36.75) is pinned at near-term max pain ($37 for 3/27). This creates a magnetic pull, but the bearish flow and negative GEX suggest pressure to break below towards the $35 put wall.

Signal vs Noise

~$200 CALL and $80 CALL OI are massive but have negligible volume. These are likely legacy positions from splits or years-old bets, not indicative of current flow.

~The $50, $55, $65 Put flows, while huge in premium, have very high IVs (85%-131%). This suggests a significant volatility sale component. They could be short puts for yield (not purely directional bearish) or part of complex spreads like put diagonals.

~The 0% IV on the 4/17 $50 Put is a data anomaly; treat the volume as meaningful but the IV read as unreliable.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Dominant bearish flow with -$82M net premium and P/C ratio of 1.5

🔄Negative GEX (-$2.2M) aligns with flow, creating a pro-cyclical (trend-amplifying) regime. Gamma flip ~$35.

🛡️Major defensive put wall at $35 (42K+ OI). A break below could accelerate selling.

📈Long-dated, deep ITM $25 call buying shows bullish conviction for 2026, contrasting with near-term bearishness.

🎯Spot at max pain ($37) with resistance at $40 (call OI) and support at $35 (put OI). The flow bias is to test support.

Read the Flow analysis for NVO for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.