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NVO

Novo Nordisk A/SClose $45.07EOD only

Max Pain

$44.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$1.17

2.6% from close

Price Gap

-0.57

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.68

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NVO Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bearish with a strong gravitational pull to the $35 gamma flip level. Confidence: 8/10. The regime is clearly defined by negative GEX (-$2.2M) and bearish net premium flow (-$82.1M), indicating a trending environment. Spot is pinned at max pain for the nearest expiries, but the rising MP trend and structural put OI at $35 create a downside bias.

Confidence:

8 / 10

base 8; GEX/flow strongly aligned bearish, spot at near-term MP provides near-term stability but structural signals point lower.

Supports: GEX -$2.2M (trending), Net Premium -$82.1M (bearish), P/C Volume 1.50, Massive put OI at $35.
Conflicts: Spot at near-term max pain ($37) suggests a temporary pin, but structural levels and flow override.

📉$65 Put 4/17 saw $35M net premium — massive bearish hedge/position.

⚖️Spot at $36.75 vs. Gamma Flip ~$35 — dealer hedging will accelerate selling below $36.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 53.4% is extremely high, offering rich premium for sellers but demanding respect for directional moves.

Gamma Regime

Trending

GEX -$2.2M indicates a trending regime; dealers are net short gamma and will hedge by selling into weakness, amplifying moves.

Flow Regime

Bearish

Net premium -$82.1M with P/C Vol 1.50 shows clear institutional put buying/hedging dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

At near-term MP ($37) but below longer-dated MP ($40+), suggesting a temporary pin with a structural drift lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Bearish flow and GEX are consistent across expirations; the massive $65 put block in April/June and rising max pain ladder signal a multi-week repositioning, not just a weekly pin.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$35.91$37.59

Max pain at $37 for 3/27 expiry provides a magnet, but break below $35.91 (2d EM low) targets $35.

Next 1 week

$34.78$38.72

Release from weekly pin and negative GEX should pressure spot toward the $35 gamma flip and put OI wall.

Next 2 weeks

$34.06$39.44

Sustained negative flow and dealer hedging (DEX +41M shares to buy on dips) support continued downside.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $37 (2026-03-27); $36 (2026-04-02); $37 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $35.91/$37.59; 1w $34.78/$38.72

Support: $35.00 · $35.00

Resistance: $200.00 · $40.00 · $80.00

Gamma flip: ~$35.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,646

Structural: **Call OI walls at $40, $80, $200 are distant and irrelevant for near-term price action. The critical structural layer is the massive $35 put OI (21,646+ contracts), acting as a strong magnet and support. Resistance is $37 (near-term MP) then $38.72 (1w EM high).**

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $-2.2M

DEX: +41.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$35 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 21,646)

NTM gamma: Dealers are net short gamma (GEX negative). A move **below $36** accelerates their delta-hedging sell flow. A move **above $37** would see them buy to cover, but the short gamma position is less sensitive to the upside.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 53.4% is extremely elevated (no VIX given, but contextually very high), making premium selling attractive but tail risks significant.

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping near-term (40.4% 2d → 52.0% 38d), indicating high event risk priced into May (earnings 5/6). Kinks at 5/8 (52.0%) and 5/15 (51.3%) expirations.

Skew: Massive skew in far OTM puts ($65 strike IV 131%, $60 strike IV 74%) reflects expensive tail hedging. The ~12 vol-point drop from May to June (52% → 49%) offers a calendar spread opportunity for vol sellers.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: -$82.1M bearish; P/C Vol 1.50 (put dominance), P/C OI 0.74.

Directional prints: 1) $65P 4/17: Vol 10K vs OI 1,250 (8x), IV 131% — **interpretation**: Likely bought as a far OTM hedge or speculative put. 2) $36.50C 4/10: Vol 1,626 vs OI 235 (6.9x) — **interpretation**: Could be bought calls betting on a bounce to MP or sold covered calls; the bearish net premium context favors the latter. 3) $40P 4/2: Vol 2,682 vs OI 656 (4.1x), IV 107% — likely bought puts for near-term protection.

Unusual: $25C 9/18: Vol 2,352 vs OI 289 (8x), IV 71% — deep ITM call with high vol, likely a financed or diagonal trade component.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$35: Break below accelerates dealer selling.

!High IV (53%): Selling premium carries high risk of volatility expansion on moves.

!Upcoming earnings (est. 5/6): Volatility kink in May expirations; event risk is priced.

!Massive OTM put blocks ($65, $60): Indicate institutional hedging for a severe tail event; a market-wide sell-off could trigger delta-hedging on those positions.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long Stock	Weak	N/A	Negative GEX and bearish flow suggest better entry lower, near $35 support.
Short Stock	Moderate-Strong	Entry near $37, target $35.	Near-term pin at max pain $37; stop above $38.72 (1w EM high).
Covered Call	Moderate	If long stock, sell $37.5 or $38 Call Apr-10 or Apr-17.	Stock drifts to $35, call premium insufficient to offset loss.
Cash-Secured Put / Put Spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $35 Put Apr-17 (~45 DTE) or sell $36/$34 Put Spread Apr-17.	Break below $35 gamma flip leads to assignment/max loss.
Long Puts / Bear Put Spread	Strong	Buy $37/$35 Put Spread Apr-10 (10 DTE) or $36.5/$34 Put Spread Apr-17 (17 DTE).	Pin at $37; time decay in high IV environment.
Iron Condor	Moderate-Weak	Given GEX negative and VIX contextually high (>25), edge is weak. $35/$33P x $38/$40C Apr-17.	Trending regime breaks range; high IV increases wing cost.
Calendar/Diagonal	Moderate	Reverse Calendar (Sell high IV, Buy lower IV): Sell $35 Put May-8 (IV 52%), Buy $35 Put Jun-18 (IV 49%). Direction: Bearish/Neutral.	Earnings event in short leg (May-8) creates pin risk.
PMCC / LEAPS Diagonal	Moderate	Buy Jan-27 $25 Call (ITM, low time decay), sell Apr-17 $37 or $38 Call against it. Direction: Bullish with income.	Bearish regime pressures long LEAPS; short call may be challenged.

Top Plays

Bear Put Spread (Near-Term)

Buy $37 Put / Sell $35 Put, Exp 2026-04-10 (10 DTE)

Directly expresses the bearish GEX/flow regime with defined risk. Targets the $35 gamma flip and put OI wall. Better than naked puts due to high IV capping cost.

Debit: $0.65-$0.80

Max loss: $0.65

BE: $36.35

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of max profit ($0.33-$0.46). Exit if spot closes above $37.50 (resistance).

Traders seeking defined-risk bearish exposure aligned with the multi-week downtrend.

Cash-Secured Put (Multi-Week)

Sell $35 Put, Exp 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)

Collects rich premium (IV 45%) at the key structural support level. The 30+ DTE provides time for the bearish thesis to play out without weekly pin noise. If assigned at $35, it's a favorable long-term entry.

Credit: $1.20-$1.50

Max loss: $33.80

BE: $33.80

Mgmt: Roll down/out if $35 is breached pre-earnings. Close at 50-70% profit. The extra time (vs. a weekly) improves risk/reward by providing a larger premium cushion and more management flexibility.

Investors/traders willing to own stock at $35, or premium sellers comfortable with the key support level.

Reverse Put Calendar (Vol Trade)

Sell $35 Put May-8 / Buy $35 Put Jun-18

Capitalizes on the steep vol term structure (sell 52% IV, buy 49% IV) for a net credit. Benefits from vol crush post-May earnings or time decay in the short leg, with a bearish/neutral bias. The long leg provides defined risk below $35.

Credit: $0.30-$0.50

Max loss: Unlimited (theoretically) below $35, but long put defines risk.

BE: Complex; manage on vol crush.

Mgmt: Close for profit if IV of May leg collapses post-earnings or if spread value decays 50%. Exit if spot moves far from $35.

Volatility traders looking to express a view on elevated near-term IV decaying, with a hedge against a crash.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rallies to tag $37.50 (near resistance) and shows rejection (1h candle close below $37.30) → Enter Bear Put Spread: Buy $37 / Sell $35 Put Apr-10.

IFSpot declines to $35.25 (testing gamma flip/support) and IV > 50% → Sell Cash-Secured $35 Put Apr-17.

Exit Triggers

EXITP/C Volume Ratio drops below 0.90 for a session → Consider taking profits on bearish positions (flow regime weakening).

EXITSpot closes above $38.72 (1w EM high) → Exit all bearish positions (downtrend invalidated).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Bearish drift toward $35 support, driven by negative GEX and institutional put hedging. Invalidation is a close above $38.72. The regime favors defined-risk bearish spreads (put spreads) and selling premium at key support ($35 CSP). Top plays: 1) Bear put spread for tactical downside, 2) CSP for longer-term premium collection/stock acquisition, 3) Reverse calendar to harvest high near-term vol.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.