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NVDA

NVIDIA CorporationClose $196.51EOD only
Max Pain
$210.00
Next expiry Jul 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$5.87
3.0% from close
Price Gap
+13.49
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
5
Low premium
P/C OI
0.83
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: Jul 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NVDA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
Jul 27, 2026 close
NVDA Theta Report
Analysis based on market close June 12, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from June 12, 2026. A newer theta report is available for June 29, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Short premium
Invalidation: Spot breaks gamma flip at $200 or moves outside 2d EM guardrails $201-$209
Confidence:
9 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); +1 spot 0.1% from MP; +1 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
NVDA avg IV ~49% vs VIX 17.68, elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Backwardated near expiry, front-month ATM IV jumps from ~3% to ~23% at 3DTE, then rises to ~44% at 7 months; pronounced put skew

📈High IV and bullish flow favor premium sales
⚠️Pinning at $205 adds risk of expiration assignment

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: At

GEX regime: Pinning ($+739.1M)

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 101,178 (2.5% below spot)

OI concentrations: Max pain $205 across multiple expiries; put floor $140; call wall $220-$250

Verdict: Significant pin risk at $205; spot at max pain and gamma flip at $200 heightens concern

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-07-10 $200.00/$195.00 put spread
Sells put spread to capture premium from high IV with defined risk.
Credit: $1.51-$1.84
Max loss: $3.16
BE: $198.16
Mgmt: Exit if spot breaks below $200; monitor pin risk at $205.

Risk Alerts

!Spot within 0.1% of max pain $205
!Gamma flip at $200 if sold off
!High IV skew indicates tail risk on downside
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on June 12, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.