Earnings Verdict
Bullish flow and positive GEX pinning near $97 MP. Earnings 61d out, near-term skew favors calls.
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.3% from MP; +1 VIX 17
Most important: Heavy call accumulation and put floor suggest upside bias near term.
🟢Net premium +$8.9M, call-heavy flow.
⚠️Spot 5.3% above MP, reversion risk.
Regime Classification
Gamma flip: ~$92.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 12,989 (9.9% below spot)
Earnings Overview
Next earnings: 2026-07-22 (61 days)explicit
Expected moves:
- 2026-05-29 (7d): ±$6.22 (6.1%)
- 2026-06-05 (14d): ±$9.10 (8.9%)
- 2026-06-12 (21d): ±$11.25 (11.0%)
IV Setup
Term structure: Upward sloping; near-term IV elevated (7d ~26%), longer-dated higher.
Crush estimate: Not immediate; earnings 61d out, IV likely expands into event.
Skew: Put skew elevated OTM; call IV moderate.
Historical Context
Beat rate: 100% (5/5 quarters)
Avg move vs expected: N/A for near-term; 100% beat rate on earnings.
Directional bias: Bullish (consistent beats and call flow).
Key Levels
1$92.00 gamma flip
2EM guardrails: 1w $95.90/$108.35
3Max pain pins: $97 (2026-05-22); $95 (2026-05-29); $95 (2026-06-05)
Flow Highlights
Unusual volume in NOW 2026-05-22 $104 Call (5679 vol vs 1856 OI).
Aggressive call buying, possible bullish positioning.
Large $101 Put printing (3299 vol vs 905 OI).
Hedging or bearish put activity near spot.
Strategies
Risk Assessment
!Spot near $110 call wall resistance.
!Gamma flip at ~$92 if downside accelerates.
!Time decay rapid for weekly options.
What to Watch
?Price action around $97 max pain pinning.
?Volume in $104 calls for continued accumulation.
?Put/call ratio shifts for sentiment change.