thetaOwl

NOK

Nokia Corporation SponsoredClose $14.18EOD only
Max Pain
$13.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.48
3.4% from close
Price Gap
-1.18
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
48
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.23
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
No reports available
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NOK options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
NOK Directional Report
Analysis based on market close May 22, 2026

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish bias: strong GEX+$521M pinning, bullish flow, spot above MP. Vol high but supports dealer hedging. Targets 1w range 14.17-16.77, bias upside. Key risk: spot 19% from MP could pull back.

Confidence:
8 / 10
Base 5; GEX/flow +2, GEX pinning +1, spot-MP distance -1, VIX 16.7 +1 → score 8. No override needed.
Supports: Bullish flow, positive GEX, spot above MP, low VIX
Conflicts: Spot far from MP, high vol regime
📈GEX +$521M and bullish flow align
⚠️Spot 19% above $13 MP, pullback possible
🛡️1w support $14.17, resistance $16.77

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High
High vol regime vs normal; IV likely elevated relative to VIX 16.7, suggesting event or uncertainty.
Gamma Regime
Pinning
Pinning: positive GEX $521M, no gamma flip near spot; dealers hedge upside.
Flow Regime
Bullish
Bullish net premium and put/call ratio indicate call bias.
Spot vs Max Pain
Above
Spot above $13.64 MP, 19% above; implies upward skew but mean reversion risk.
Thesis duration: Multi-week — Price ranges span 2 weeks, no single event; structural flow and GEX support multi-week bias.

Price Range Forecast

Next 1 week
$14.17$16.77
Support $14.17, resistance $16.77; break of $16 targets $17
Next 2 weeks
$13.64$17.30
Wider range $13.64-$17.3; hold above $14 for upside continuation

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $13 (2026-05-22); $14 (2026-05-29); $12 (2026-06-05)
EM guardrails: 1w $14.17/$16.77
Support: $13.64
Resistance: $16.00 · $17.00 · $17.30
Structural: Support $13.64, Resistance $16/$17/$17.3; MP pins $13 (May22), $14 (May29), $12 (Jun5).

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+521.7M

DEX: +154.1M shares

Gamma flip: N/A

NTM gamma: GEX +$521.7M, DEX +154.1M shares; positive gamma providing pinning support.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Regime vol high vs VIX 16.7; ticker IV likely rich, implying elevated risk premium.

Term structure: Not provided; assume normal contango unless event-driven.

Skew: No skew data; potential call overwriting if IV rich.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium $68.7M put-biased (P/C vol 0.24), indicating aggressive put buying.

Directional prints: 71.5 put 14.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 77.2: heavy put buying, likely bearish downside bet. Preferred read: bought. 10.2 put 15.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 49.5: aggressive put buying near expiration, low IV suggests cheap premium. Preferred read: bought. 69.7 put 15 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 40.6: significant put volume, bearish positioning. Preferred read: bought.

Unusual: 71.5 put 14.5 OTM 2026-06-05 — Vol/OI 77.2 extremely high; unusual put activity for deep OTM strike. 10.2 put 15.5 ITM 2026-05-22 — Vol/OI 49.5 on 0DTE; unusual volume relative to open interest. 69.7 put 15 OTM 2026-05-29 — Vol/OI 40.6; large put buying with above-average IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Spot 19% from MP may trigger reversion to max pain.
!High vol regime could expand further on negative catalyst.
!Gamma flip risk if spot drops below $13.64 support.

Strategy Viability

StrategyEdgeBest SetupPrimary Risk
Put credit spreadModerate
Sell 2026-06-26 $14.00/$13.50 put spread
Why now: Strong GEX and bullish flow support upside; high vol favors premium sale.
Spot 19% above MP may revert; high vol expansion possible.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-26 $16.00/$18.00 call spread
Why now: Positive GEX and flow support; spreads reduce cost and theta decay.
Spot pullback to MP could hurt; time decay if move delayed.
Put credit spreadModerate-Strong
Sell 2026-06-05 $14.00/$13.50 put spread
Why now: Spot above MP, bullish GEX pinning, and high IV make put credit spread attractive for defined-risk upside.
Spot 19% above MP could revert; spread limits loss but still exposed to sharp decline below short strike.
Bull call spreadModerate
Buy 2026-06-12 $15.00/$17.50 call spread
Why now: Bullish bias and range target 16.77 support for upside; limited risk with high vol works in favor.
If spot fails to rally, premium is lost; high vol may decay quickly if move doesn't materialize.
Call diagonalModerate
Sell 2026-06-05 $16.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $15.00 call
Why now: Near-term IV elevated; longer-dated call maintains upside exposure while short leg decays faster.
If spot rallies sharply before near-term expiry, short call may cap gains; reversal could cause losses on both legs.

Top Plays

#1
Put Credit Spread
Sell 2026-06-26 $14.00/$13.50 put spread
Sell $14/$13.50 put spread to capture theta decay and benefit from bullish bias. Defined risk.
Why this play: Strong GEX, bullish flow, high IV favor premium sale. Outranks due to higher credit, later expiry.
Credit: $0.15-$0.18
Max loss: $0.32
BE: $13.82
Mgmt: Close if spot breaks $13.64 or take profit at 50% credit.
Traders seeking defined-risk bullish exposure with high IV.
#2
Bull Call Spread
Buy 2026-06-26 $16.00/$18.00 call spread
Buy $16/$18 call spread to leverage upside to 16.77 with limited risk.
Why this play: Positive GEX and flow support upside; spreads reduce cost and theta decay. Cheaper entry.
Debit: $0.45-$0.55
Max loss: $0.55
BE: $16.55
Mgmt: Target profit at 16.77 or close if spot below $13.64.
Traders wanting leveraged upside with capped risk.
#3
Call Diagonal
Sell 2026-06-05 $16.00 call / buy 2026-07-17 $15.00 call
Sell near-term $16 call, buy longer-dated $15 call to profit from IV and time decay.
Why this play: Near-term IV elevated; diagonal maintains upside while short leg decays faster.
Debit: $1.10-$1.34
Max loss: $1.34
BE: Path-dependent
Mgmt: Monitor IV; close if spot approaches short strike.
Traders comfortable with complex strategies.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers
IFIF NOK spot bounces off $13.64 support (closes above $14.00)Sell 2026-06-26 $14.00/$13.50 put credit spread (strat-1)
IFIF NOK spot breaks above $16.00 resistance with volumeBuy 2026-06-26 $16.00/$18.00 call spread (strat-2)
Exit Triggers
EXITIF NOK spot breaks below $13.64 invalidation levelClose all bullish positions (exit put credit spread and call spreads)

Tactical Summary

Bullish bias on strong GEX/flow; enter PCS on bounce or BCS on breakout; exit below $13.64.
How to Use These Reports
This directional reflects the market close on May 22, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

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Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.