NIO Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 extremely bullish net premium & P/C ratio; +1 GEX/flow alignment; -1 high IV regime & deep OTM call prints

Watch next session: $5.50 call OI buildup for 4/2 expiry; Any put flow at $6.00 strike

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$8.3M strongly bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.26 — extremely call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.69 — moderate call lean in positioning

Extreme call dominance in volume and premium, with net bullish premium of $8.3M. Flow is aggressively betting on upside, though some prints are deep OTM lottery tickets. Positioning shows a large put wall at $2.00, but near-term flow is overwhelmingly bullish.

Notable Prints

NIO 4/24 $7.50 Call

Vol: 6,284

OI: 1,708

Vol/OI: 3.7x

IV: 60.2%

Notional: ~$378,000

Intent: Directional upside bet

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold/overwritten (neutral-bearish)

Read-through: Most significant near-term directional bet. Buying ~25% OTM calls 24 days out suggests conviction in a move toward $7.50. Notional value is meaningful.

NIO 4/17 $6.00 Put

Vol: 1,486

OI: 945

Vol/OI: 1.6x

IV: 59.0%

Notional: ~$89,000

Intent: Hedge or speculative downside bet

Dual read: Bought (protective/bearish) or sold (bullish)

Read-through: Standout put flow in a sea of calls. Likely a hedge for long stock or call positions given spot at $6.03. Provides a floor for the bullish thesis.

NIO 11/20 $8.00 Call

Vol: 676

OI: 345

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 67.9%

Notional: ~$41,000

Intent: Long-dated directional bet

Dual read: Bought (bullish) or sold (neutral-bearish)

Read-through: LEAP call buying, targeting ~33% upside over 8 months. Consistent with a longer-term bullish view, complementing the near-term aggressive calls.

NIO 4/2 $2.00 Call

Vol: 743

OI: 122

Vol/OI: 6.1x

IV: 937.5%

Notional: ~$4,500

Intent: Lottery ticket or spread leg

Dual read: Bought (lottery) or sold (noise)

Read-through: Extreme OTM with massive IV. Likely a cheap lottery ticket or part of a complex spread. Low notional value makes it noise for directional signals.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: $5.00-$7.50 calls across Apr/May expiries, plus LEAPs at $8.00 & $12.00

Put additions: Minimal near-term; notable $6.00 put for 4/17, massive OI wall at $2.00 put (196,695 OI)

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$104.6M) aligns with bullish flow, supporting a pinning/mean-reverting regime near current price.

OI clusters: Major call walls at $7.00 (152,920 OI) and $10.00 (101,067 OI). Major put wall at $2.00 (196,695 OI). Near-term max pain at $5.50-$6.00.

Hedging evidence: The $6.00 put flow for 4/17 is the primary hedge signal. The enormous $2.00 put OI is likely a legacy/fundamental hedge, not recent flow.

Max pain context: Spot ($6.03) is above near-term max pain ($5.50 for 4/2), creating a slight gravitational pull lower, but strong call flow is pushing against it.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep OTM calls for 4/2 expiry ($0.50, $1.00, $2.00, $2.50) are lottery tickets with extreme IV (>200%). Low notional value, not meaningful directional signals.

~The massive $2.00 put OI (196,695) is a positioning artifact, not recent flow. It represents a long-term fundamental hedge, not a near-term directional view.

~High volume in some prints (e.g., 4/2 $2.00C) is amplified by low existing OI (Vol/OI ratio high), but notional value is trivial.

Key Conclusions

🐂Extremely bullish flow regime with +$8.3M net premium and P/C ratio of 0.26

📌Positive GEX supports pinning/mean-reversion near current price, aligned with flow

🎯Institutions are targeting moves to $7.50 near-term and $8.00+ by year-end

⚠️Watch $5.50 level (max pain & major premium strike) as key support for bullish thesis

Read the Flow analysis for NIO for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.