thetaOwl
HomeOptionsNIOReports

NIO

NIO Inc.Close $5.74EOD only
Max Pain
$6.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$0.47
8.2% from close
Price Gap
+0.26
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
30
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.75
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NIO options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
NIO Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected ~June 2, 2026 (~63 days out). IV is extremely elevated (88% average), creating a high-premium environment. The stock shows strong historical EPS beat rate and bullish flow, but liquidity is below mega-cap standards. Best strategy is selling premium via defined-risk spreads, targeting IV crush.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong historical beat rate; +0.5 elevated IV; -0.5 low liquidity vs mega-caps; +0.5 clear gamma pinning
Most important: Historical EPS beat rate is 100% (4/4) with an average surprise of +1.18. Elevated IV and pinning near max pain support premium-selling strategies.
📊100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters. Average surprise +1.18.
⚠️Liquidity is moderate. Not a mega-cap. Mind the bid/ask.
🛡️Massive 196,695 OI in $2 puts acts as a structural floor/support.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 88%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$104.6M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$8.3M, P/C 0.26)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 9.6% (spot $6.03 vs MP $6)
Gamma flip: ~$2.00 — Gamma flip estimated at ~$2 based on massive put OI at $2. Below $2, dealers may amplify moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-06-02 (63 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 6/18 (79d): ±$1.53 (25.3%)
  • 8/21 (143d): ±$1.98 (32.8%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Steeply upward sloping. Near-term (2d) IV at 51.6%, rising to ~65% for Jun-Aug expirations. No sharp kink yet, as earnings are ~2 months out.

Crush estimate: ~15-20 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~45-50% range.

Skew: Flow is heavily call-skewed (P/C 0.26), but massive OI in $2 puts provides a structural floor.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data not provided for price moves vs expected move. Focus on EPS: Average surprise of +1.18.

Directional bias: 3/4 quarters reported positive EPS surprise. Last quarter (Dec '25) beat by +4.41.

Key Levels

1$2.00 (massive put OI wall)
2$5.00 (call OI & max pain cluster)
3$6.00 (current spot, near-term max pain)
4$7.00 (major call OI wall)
5EM 6/18: $4.5 - $7.5

Flow Highlights

Heavy call buying at $5.50 ($3.95M net premium), $5.00 ($493K), and $6.00 ($389K).

Strong bullish directional flow into near-term expirations, supporting upside bias.

Unusual volume in deep OTM 4/2 calls ($0.50, $1.00, $2.00) with IV > 900%.

Lottery ticket buying for a potential massive squeeze, but represents minimal premium risk.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (Targeting IV Crush)
Sell $4.5/$5.0 Put Spread x Sell $7.5/$8.0 Call Spread, exp 6/18.
Credit: $0.35-$0.45
Max loss: $0.65
Max gain: $0.35
BE: $4.65 - $7.85
Trigger: Enter 30-45 days before earnings (IV ~65%). Close after earnings crush.
Capitalizes on high IV and historical tendency to beat. Wide wings ($4.5-$8.0) capture 79-day expected move. Defined risk.
Outperforms: Stock stays between $5 and $7.5 through earnings; IV crushes as expected.
Underperforms: Stock gaps outside breakevens; IV remains elevated post-event.
Bull Put Spread (Directional, High Probability)
Sell $4.0 Put / Buy $3.5 Put, exp 6/18.
Credit: $0.15-$0.20
Max loss: $0.35
Max gain: $0.15
BE: $3.85
Trigger: Enter on any pullback toward $5.50-$5.75.
Leverages bullish flow, high IV for premium, and the strong $2 put OI floor. Targets the lower half of the expected move range.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $4.00; bullish flow and historical beats materialize.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $4.00, triggering the massive $2 put OI gravity.
Long Dated Call Diagonal (Earnings + Trend)
Buy Jan '27 $5.0 Call / Sell Jun '26 $7.0 Call.
Max loss: Cost of diagonal
Max gain: Uncapped above $7 + credit
BE: Complex (depends on entry cost)
Trigger: Enter if near-term IV spikes above 70% into earnings.
Financing a long-dated bullish position by selling elevated near-term IV against the $7 call OI wall. Benefits from volatility crush on short leg.
Outperforms: Stock grinds higher into/after earnings; near-term IV crushes while long-dated IV holds.
Underperforms: Stock stagnates or falls; both legs lose value.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: Expected move is wide (±25%), but stock is low-priced. A $1.50 move is 25%.
!IV Crush Impact: Critical for short premium strategies. If IV stays elevated (e.g., macro vol), profits will be limited.
!Liquidity: Lower than mega-caps (170K daily vol vs 500K+ for AAPL). Wider spreads possible, especially in OTM strikes.
!Sizing: Use smaller size due to binary risk in low-priced, high-vol name. The $2 put OI creates a potential 'gamma cliff' below that level.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in the Jun/Jul expirations as earnings approaches.
?Spot price relative to the $5.00-$6.00 max pain cluster for pinning.
?Any increase in put flow to challenge the overwhelmingly bullish sentiment.
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.