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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $87.35EOD only
Max Pain
$88.00
Next expiry May 29, 2026
Expected Move
±$1.69
1.9% from close
Price Gap
+0.65
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
27
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
0.79
Slightly call-heavy
Consensus
8.5/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 27, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 27, 2026 close
NFLX Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 15, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 15, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 26, 2026.

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Theta Verdict

Attractiveness6.5 / 10
Sizing: Moderate
Primary: Defined-risk put credit spreads and short-dated call calendars after earnings
Invalidation: Close below $98.78 support (deterministic) or intraday break below 2d EM $99.93
Confidence:
7.5 / 10
base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 13.4% from MP; +0.5 VIX 18

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
Near-term ATM IV 99.7% (2026-04-17) vs VIX 18.17 — extreme short-dated richness; 9d ATM IV 59.3% still well above VIX; avg IV 53.8%
Favorable?
No

Term structure: Very steep front-loaded term structure: 2d ATM 99.7% > 9d 59.3% > 30d ~40.9% — huge front-week premium around earnings

⚠️2d IV 99.7% is earnings-driven — selling naked into earnings is high-risk
💰30–60 DTE IV (~40–41%) is elevated vs broad market VIX 18.17 — favorable for defined-risk sellers after earnings

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above

GEX regime: Pinning ($+312.8M)

OI concentrations: Call OI walls at $120-$140 large (structural). Near-term GEX pin magnets: +$28.3M at $112.00, +$14.2M at $110.00, +$10.7M at $105.00; Max pain short-dated = $95 (2d) vs spot $107.71 (MP is -13.4% from spot).

Verdict: Threatening for naked call sellers above $110 (pin magnets draw price); favorable for selling put credit spreads near $100 support because positive GEX (+$312.8M) creates pinning that can support upside; however large OI call walls higher mean tail upside is possible—pinning supports defined-risk put sales but raises pin/assignment risk into expirations with concentrated OI.

Premium Opportunities

#1
Put credit spread
Sell 2026-05-15 $101.00/$96.00 put spread
Sell a 25–55 DTE short put around delta ~0.25 and buy a 5-point put to define risk; wait until after 2026-04-16 earnings to avoid front-week IV 99.7% and potential gap risk.
Credit: $1.01-$1.24
Max loss: $3.76
BE: $99.76
Mgmt: Close for 50–65% of max credit profit; tighten or roll if price closes below $98.78 or if IV spikes despite earnings.
#2
Cash-secured put
Sell 2026-05-15 $99.00 cash-secured put
Target short-put delta ~0.20 in the 25–45 DTE window with strike near $100 or slightly below; use deterministic support $98.78 as target acquisition price.
Credit: $1.48-$1.81
Max loss: $97.19
BE: $97.19
Mgmt: Predefine maximum purchase price; buy-to-close or roll if price trades below $98.78 or if IV rises instead of compressing after earnings.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 2026-04-16 (1d) — avoid selling naked premium into this event; expect extreme 2d ATM IV 99.7%
!Front-loaded IV: 2d ATM 99.7% vs 30d ~40.9% — huge IV crush potential; aggressive short strangles/weeklies can chop and gap
!Positive GEX $+312.8M and pin magnets at $110/$112 — elevated chance of pinning toward those levels which can hurt short-call/backspread exposure
!Max pain near $95 (2d) is far below spot (13.4%) — asymmetric gap-down risk exists despite bullish flow; defined-risk structures preferred
!Large call OI walls at $120–$140 create structural upside resistance but also tail risk for short calls if aggressive flow pushes through
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 15, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.