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NFLX

Netflix, Inc.Close $103.16EOD only

Max Pain

$93.00

Next expiry Apr 17, 2026

Expected Move

±$6.75

6.5% from close

Price Gap

-10.16

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

100

High premium

P/C OI

0.92

Balanced positioning

Consensus

6.5/10

Consensus signal

Published snapshot: Apr 13, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NFLX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

Apr 13, 2026 close

NFLX Theta Report

Analysis based on market close April 13, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Theta Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$234.2M); +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 10.9% from MP; +0.5 VIX 19.12

IV Environment

IV Regime

High

IV vs VIX

Avg IV 50.9% vs VIX 19.12 — IV is very elevated relative to market

Favorable?

Yes

Term structure: Very front-loaded: 4d ATM 70.1% → 18d ATM 45.0% → 32d ATM 39.4% (steeply downward sloping), creates good opportunities to sell short-dated premium or defined-risk wings at rich near-term IV

💰Avg IV 50.9% and 18d ATM 45.0%: rich vol environment for sellers

⚠️Very high 4d ATM 70.1% (earnings in 3 days) — short-dated premium is extremely elevated and may crush after the print

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above (spot $103.16 vs near max pain $93 on 2026-04-17; spot is 10.9% above MP)

GEX regime: Pinning (Total GEX +$234.2M) — dealer gamma is positive and magneting toward concentrated strikes

Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip at ~$73 — below this level dealer behavior flips; well below current spot so not immediate unless large gap down

OI concentrations: Call wall concentrated $110-$125; large call OI at $105 (91,309 combined listed) and $100 call OI clusters (43k / 15k entries) — put floor concentrated at $73 (48,176 OI)

Verdict: Favorable — strong positive GEX and multiple nearby pin magnets ($100, $104, $105, $110) support selling puts or defined risk wings as dealers are likely to dampen moves into these walls

Premium Opportunities

put spread

Sell $100 / Buy $95 put spread exp 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)

Matches the $100 GEX magnet (+$21.4M at $100) and sits inside the 18–32d expected move ($94.79 - $111.54). Term structure shows 32d ATM 39.4% — elevated but lower than near-term allowing reasonable roll costs. Defined-risk spread limits tail while collecting rich premium.

Credit: $1.10-$1.40

Max loss: $3.90

BE: $98.90

Mgmt: Take profits at 60–70% of max credit; roll down 1–2 strikes and out 30–45d if price approaches short strike ($100) on close below $100; cut losses (close or widen) if underlying closes below $94.79 or if IV spikes >+20% intra-trade

iron condor

Sell $95/$90 put spread + Sell $110/$115 call spread exp 2026-05-01 (18 DTE)

Shorter-dated defined-risk wings capture very rich short-term IV (4d–18d ATM elevated) and bracket the current spot. Put side benefits from the $95-$100 GEX concentration; call side is cushioned by the large call OI wall $110-$125. Defined-risk structure avoids naked assignment through earnings weekend if kept on 18d expiries (but avoid naked through the 4/16 print).

Credit: $1.50-$1.90

Max loss: $3.50

BE: 93.50 / 111.50

Mgmt: Take profits at 50% of max credit; if price tests either short strike close that side or roll 1 strike further out and 30+ days; close both wings if IV collapses >30% post-earnings before expiration to capture remaining premium

covered call

Buy 100 shares NFLX and sell $105 call exp 2026-05-15 (32 DTE)

If long stock is acceptable, selling 32d $105 calls monetizes the large call OI at $105/$110 while collecting elevated premium. This is conservative relative to selling naked calls; call OI wall gives resistance and pinning support should limit upside early.

Credit: $1.80-$2.20

Max loss: stock minus credit (unlimited downside)

BE: $101.36

Mgmt: Close calls at 50–60% of max profit; if NFLX rallies above $105 on strong gap buyback the call or roll up+out (one strike) to collect additional premium; exit stock or hedge if price drops and hits $94.79 (lower expected move bound)

calendar (put calendar)

Sell 2026-04-24 $103 put and buy 2026-05-15 $103 put (debit calendar)

Front-month IV (4–11d) is extremely elevated (4d ATM 70.1%; 11d ATM 51.0%) vs 32d ATM 39.4% — selling the rich near-term put against a longer-dated long captures fast front decay around the $103 short strike (unusual activity shows volume in Apr24 $103 puts). Use defined debit to limit risk through earnings.

Debit: $0.70-$1.10

Max loss: $1.10

BE: structure dependent on front-month decay; favorable if Apr24 decays below purchase cost

Mgmt: Target 30–50% return on debit; if Apr24 liquidity becomes stressed or underlying gaps away from $103, close short leg early; if IV term compresses heavily post-earnings prefer to close for profit; cut losses if cost doubles or underlying closes more than one expected move away ($109+ or <$96)

Risk Alerts

!Earnings 2026-04-16 (TBD) — do NOT sell naked premium through the print; prefer defined-risk or avoid short-dated naked positions.

!Gamma flip ~$73 — significant dealer behavior change below this level; heavy put floor at $73 (48,176 OI) can cause nonlinear moves if breached.

!Short-dated IV extreme (4d ATM 70.1%) — large IV crush risk post-earnings; manage front-month exposure tightly.

!Positive GEX (+$234.2M) creates pinning toward $100–$105; credit sellers benefit while short-dated directional squeezes are possible if flow reverses.

!Unusual concentrated call buying and heavy call OI at $100/$105/$110 — call-side sellers should be ready to adjust if bullish flow accelerates and price runs into these walls.

Read the Theta analysis for NFLX for 2026-04-13. Each report is a market-close snapshot with regime read, key levels, and strategy context that translates options positioning into an actionable setup.