base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (GEX +$226.5M); +1 positive GEX pinning; -1 spot 6.2% above MP/earnings ahead
Term structure: Very front-loaded: 7d ATM 61.1% → 14d 48.5% → 35-42d ~38.9%-39.4% — steep front-week skew creates calendar/defined-risk opportunities after earnings
Spot vs MP: Spot $103.01 — Above max pain ($97 for 2026-04-10); spot ~6.2% above MP (pre-computed)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$226.5M) — dealers are long gamma net which creates magnetic pin forces into heavy OI strikes
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip near ~$73 — far below spot; dealer behavior flips only if price collapses toward that deep put wall
OI concentrations: Call walls concentrated $100-$125 (notably 100C OI 43,213 / 105C OI 91,277 / 125C OI 91,208); put concentration at $73 (48,178 OI) and near-term put clusters around $95 (16,564) and $96 (16,207). Strong GEX magnets at $100 (+$16.5M), $105 (+$10.6M), $104 (+$8.2M).
#1put spread
Sell 100/95 put spread 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Sits on strong dealer pin/GEX at $100 (+$16.5M) and aligns with put OI support; term structure offers lower IV in the 35d bucket (~38.9%) but still attractive vs spot. Avoid selling into earnings; open after 2026-04-16 print.
Mgmt: Take profits at 50-65% of max credit collected; roll down/wing out if underlying closes within $1.50 of short 100 put for two sessions; cut losses/close if price closes below EM guardrail $96.06 or if spread marks >50% of max loss
#2iron condor
Sell 95/90 put and 110/115 call iron condor 2026-05-22 (42 DTE)
Uses well-defined short strikes: 95 puts (put cluster 16,564 OI / MP trending lower) and 110 calls (call OI wall 19,055; GEX +6.9M at 110) — positive GEX pinning limits drift toward either wing. 42d sits in the 39.4% ATM IV band.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50% of max credit; close/adjust if underlying tests either short strike (single-day close inside short strike) — roll the tested side 3-5 strikes and out 2-4 weeks or convert to broken-wing if skew favors; hard cut if price trades beyond either breakeven
#3covered call
Buy 100 shares + sell 105 call 2026-05-15 (35 DTE)
Collects rich call premium using strong call liquidity at 105 (multi-exp OI concentration). Works for Theta-focused owners who want yield and prefer defined upside exit. May be established after earnings once IV settles.
Mgmt: Close covered call if underlying rallies and approach $105 (buy back calls at >75% of premium to preserve shares); if stock falls below $96.06 consider closing/rolling into a put spread to reduce stock exposure
#4put spread (slightly wider)
Sell 105/100 put spread 2026-06-18 (69 DTE)
Longer-dated defined-risk bullish put spread that monetizes the large call/put OI band around 100-105 while capturing higher absolute premium (ATM IV ~36.4% at 69d). Good for larger sizes where you want more theta but longer cushion vs short-term earnings noise.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60% of max credit; consider rolling shorter if trade is comfortably OTM at 20 DTE to collect another cycle; exit if price breaks and holds below $100 with implied skew rising materially
!Earnings 2026-04-16 — do not sell naked premium through the print; wait until IV reprices post-earnings.
!Front-week IV is very high (7d ATM 61.1%) — avoid short-dated naked sales into event risk; use defined-risk spreads if needed in front-week.
!Gamma flip at ~$73 — while far below spot, a disorderly gap lower could flip dealer behavior; monitor for rapid IV expansion.
!Pin pressure concentrated at $100-$105 — short strikes inside these levels can be magnetized; manage rolls when price tests those strikes.
!Unusual put flow: large OTM put trades (e.g., May22 $90 put flow) — monitor for directional institutional positioning that could increase tail risk on downside moves.