base 7.0 (base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 5.2% from MP)
Term structure: Very steep near-term skew: 1d ATM 35.5% then 8d 58.9% then 15d 48.8%; elevated short-dated vols create good entry for weekly/near-month wings
Spot vs MP: Spot $102.05 is above Max Pain $97 (nearest 2026-04-10) and above other short-dated MP levels ($92, $95); spot is 5.2% above nearest MP
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$304.6M) — large positive GEX creates magnetic effect toward concentrated strikes
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip ~ $73 (put floor) — well below spot; dealer behavior flips only far lower, so dealer pinning pressure dominates near current price
OI concentrations: Call wall $110-$125 (high call OI) and large call OI at $105/$100; put floor concentrated at $73 (48,184 OI). Near-term GEX magnets: +$38.7M @ $100, +$23.4M @ $102, +$23.0M @ $101, +$19.8M @ $105, +$16.1M @ $103
#1put spread
Sell $100 / Buy $95 put vertical 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)
Defined-risk short-put spread across heavy GEX magnet at $100 (GEX +$38.7M) and near-term OI. 36 DTE captures elevated mid-term IV (May15 ATM 39.3%) while keeping defined downside. MP and dealer pinning make downside to $95 less likely in the near term.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; roll down and widen if price closes below $100.58 (2d EM lower guardrail) or cut losses if underlying closes < $98 on daily close; consider early buyback if spread trades at >80% of max loss.
#2iron condor
Sell $95/$90 put spread and Sell $110/$115 call spread 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)
Wide wings take advantage of pinning and heavy call OI at $110-$125 (creates resistance) while put-side is supported by dealer hedging and strong GEX magnets near $100-$103. Defined-risk condor fits the high-IV environment and current term structure.
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten or close if price tests short strikes ($95 or $110) on intraday closes or if underlying closes below $100.58 or above $109.15 (1w EM upper guardrail). Roll asymmetric side outward if short strike touched and you can collect >50% of original credit.
#3covered call
Buy 100 shares stock and Sell $105 call 2026-05-15 (36 DTE)
$105 call has high OI and strong premium (near-term chain shows $105 call mid ~ $2.36 for short-dated expiries). Collects substantial theta vs cost basis; call strike sits above current spot and under major call wall at $110-$125 so upside assignment risk moderate. Works as yield enhancement during pinning regime.
Mgmt: Close at 70% of max time decay captured or if stock closes below $100.58; consider rolling up-and-out if stock trends above $105 with >50% probability, or buy back calls and convert to covered call ladder.
#4short put (cash-secured) / defined risk alternative
Sell $100 put 2026-05-08 (29 DTE) cash-secured
29 DTE still captures elevated IV (May08 ATM 41.0%) and sits on heavy $100 GEX/OI magnet. Use only if comfortable owning stock; high premium for short puts and dealer pinning reduces probability of assignment.
Mgmt: Don't sell naked through earnings (earnings 2026-04-16). Close or roll if price closes below $100.58; take profit at 50-60% of collected premium; if assigned, convert to covered call or roll down in structured manner.
!Earnings 2026-04-16 — within one week. Never sell naked through earnings; prefer defined-risk spreads and close/avoid short-dated naked options before announcement.
!Gamma flip ~ $73 — if price collapses toward $73 dealers change behavior and previously-safe pins break; exit credits aggressively on sustained move toward that region.
!EM guardrails tight: 2d $100.58/$103.53 and 1w $94.95/$109.15 — breaches (especially below $100.58) invalidate short-put bias and require defensive management.
!Unusual flow: heavy call premium at $100/$105 and large May 01 put flow at $99 (NFLX260501P00099000) — monitor for institutional directional action into early-May expiries that could shift short-term skew.
!High Avg IV 50.5% — beneficial for sellers but also signals rapid repricing risk; if IV falls sharply (IV crush risk) close wings/call spreads to lock profits; if IV spikes further, prefer defined-risk spreads/wings.