base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned (Pinning); +1 positive GEX magnitude (+$219.8M); no data quality penalty
Term structure: Front-week (3d) IV is ~39.1% but 10d IV spikes to 57.2% then settles in the low-40s for 24–45d — short-dated sell strategies have mixed edge; 10d premium is especially rich.
Spot vs MP: Spot $98.82 is above near-term max pain $96.00 (4/10) by ~2.95%; MP sequence shows a shallow downward trend ($96 → $95 over expirations).
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$219.8M) — positive gamma exposure concentrated near $100 area should act as a magnet.
Gamma flip: ~$73.00 — Gamma flip is far below spot (~$73). Dealer amplification is only a tail risk if NFLX plunges toward $73.
OI concentrations: Call walls $100/$105/$104 (large call OI: 44,476 @100; 20,743 @105; 17,993 @104). Put concentration deep at $73 (48,173 OI). Near-term GEX magnets: +$35.8M at $100, +$12.4M at $101, +$9.6M at $105.
#1put spread
Sell 95 / buy 90 put spread 2026-05-22 (45 DTE)
45 DTE offers elevated mid-term IV (41.9%) and strong put support / GEX pin near $100. 95 put short sits just inside the concentrated short-put area (max pain $95–96 nearby), giving margin for theta decay while dealers hedge toward the magnet.
Mgmt: Take profit at 50–65% of max credit; roll down 1–2 strikes if price closes below the short strike for 2 consecutive sessions; cut losses if underlying closes < $91.34 (1w EM lower guardrail) or if position reaches 75% of max loss.
#2iron condor
Sell 100 / buy 95 put side x sell 110 / buy 115 call side 2026-05-22 (45 DTE)
Wide 5-point wings on the put side capture the pinning magnet at $100 and call wall at $105–110; mid-term IV elevated, giving healthy wing credit while defined risk limits assignment exposure. Use 45 DTE to collect theta with a margin of safety inside the 45d expected move ($87.72–$109.92).
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max profit; tighten or roll if underlying trades within 1–2 points of either short strike for two consecutive days; close the entire condor if price closes beyond either breakeven or if IV spikes >+15% intraday.
#3covered call
Buy 100 shares spot $98.82 and sell 2026-05-08 (31 DTE) 100 call
For stock owners, selling the 31‑day 100C captures elevated near-term IV (31–45d term rich) and sits at a heavily OI’d call strike (100). Generates ~3%+ yield in 31 days while keeping upside to ~100. Good asymmetric risk if willing to own shares and be called.
Mgmt: Take profit on the call at 50–75% credit decay; if stock rallies strongly and assignment is acceptable, let expire; if stock drops and reaches $91.34 close/roll the call and consider selling a put spread instead.
#4defined-risk calendar (debit-defined spread)
Sell 2026-04-10 (3 DTE) 99 call, buy 2026-05-22 (45 DTE) 99 call — rollable calendar
Front-week IV is lower (39.1%) but 10d is very rich. This short-week sell (defined risk as part of a calendar) captures theta from the front-month while being protected by the long 45d call. Use only as a defined-risk calendar because earnings (4/16) are coming — avoid naked short week exposure across earnings.
Mgmt: Close short leg by EOD of 4/10 if spot moves >$1.50 away from $99; take profits if calendar value >50% of debit reduction; avoid holding through earnings; cap max loss at paid debit.
!Earnings 2026-04-16 (in 9 days) — avoid selling naked puts/calls through the event; close or convert short-dated naked exposure before earnings.
!Gamma flip ~ $73 — a deep downside move toward $73 would flip dealer hedging and accelerate moves; defined-risk only if you cannot handle rapid gap risk.
!High GEX (+$219.8M) creates pinning risk — while favorable for short puts, it can produce sharp mean-reversion squeezes if flow flips; monitor intraday order flow.
!Concentrated call OI at $100–$105 and large short-put OI at $73 creates asymmetric risk: strong upside pinning but crowded call strikes can force sharp moves if large directional flow arrives.
!Unusual activity: large ITM put activity around $99–$100 for expirations 4/10 and 4/17 — elevated trading in those strikes could presage directional repositioning; avoid widening naked exposure until flow confirms.