base 5; +1 strong pinning; +1 normal IV; -0.5 spot above MP; -0.5 earnings in 14 days
Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (49.4%), elevated through May, then flattens near 38-40%
Spot vs MP: Above by 7.2% ($98.66 vs $92.00 for 3/27)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$188.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Estimated near $95 based on OI concentrations. Below this, dealers amplify selling.
OI concentrations: Massive Put Wall at $5 (176,389 OI), Call Walls at $100 (67,263), $105 (91,246), and $125 (91,244). $92-$95 is a magnet.
#1put credit spread
Sell $92/$87 put spread for 4/17 expiration (15 DTE)
Strikes are below the estimated $95 gamma flip and near the $92 max pain for 4/17. IV is elevated at 49.4% for this expiration. Strong pinning regime (GEX +$188M) makes a sustained breakdown below $92 less likely. Expected move is ±$7.80, placing the short put well outside the lower boundary.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if NFLX closes below $95 (gamma flip). Do not roll; take the loss if thesis breaks.
#2iron condor
Sell $90/$85P x $110/$115C for 5/01 expiration (29 DTE)
Captures high IV (42.1% for 5/01) across a wide range bounded by major OI levels ($5 put wall below, $105/$115 call walls above). Positive GEX supports range-bound action. 29 DTE is a sweet spot for theta decay. Expected move is ±$9.25, placing wings well outside.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; close tested side for a debit if pinning weakens. Avoid holding into earnings (4/16).
#3cash-secured put
Sell $90 put for 4/24 expiration (22 DTE)
For capital-secure accounts willing to own NFLX. Strike is 8.8% below spot, below the gamma flip, and collects rich premium (IV 44.7%). High probability in a pinning regime. Provides a good entry if assigned.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested, aiming to avoid assignment unless desired. Close at 80% profit. Exit on a close below $87.
#4call credit spread (weekly)
Sell $100/$102 call spread for 4/10 expiration (8 DTE)
Defined-risk play into the $100 call OI wall (67,263). Spot is below this resistance, and pinning supports a rejection. IV for this weekly is 29.3%, providing decent credit relative to risk. Expected move is ±$3.39, keeping the short strike just outside.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit or expire worthless. Exit immediately if NFLX closes above $99.50 (testing the wall).
!Gamma flip estimated at ~$95. A break below invalidates the pinning thesis and requires exiting put-side credit positions.
!Earnings estimated for 4/16 (14 days out). Close or roll all short premium positions before the announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Massive, unusual OI in deep OTM puts ($5, $1.50, $2) creates a structural support floor but is a potential 'volatility event' anchor if breached.
!Spot is 7.2% above nearest max pain ($92). This increases the probability of a mean-reverting pullback toward that level.
!Unusual activity in 4/10 $98 puts and calls shows elevated near-term volatility expectations around the current price—monitor for a directional break.
!IV is normal for NFLX but elevated in absolute terms. Be aware of IV crush risk on any calm, range-bound consolidation, especially in longer-dated positions.