NFLX Theta Gang Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
Theta Verdict
Confidence:6.5 / 10
base 5; +1 strong pinning; +1 normal IV; -0.5 gamma flip proximity; +0 flow neutral; -0.5 earnings in 17 days
IV Environment
IV Regime
Normal
IV vs VIX
IV 46.9% — Normal for NFLX, historically elevated vs broad market
Favorable?
Yes
Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (49.0%), elevated through May, then flattens near 38-40%
IV ~47% provides solid premium for sellers
Term structure hump at 18-46 DTE ideal for standard theta plays
Pin Risk Assessment
Spot vs MP: Above by 3.3% ($95.00 vs $92.00 for 3/27)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$189.2M)
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Estimated near $90 based on massive $5 put OI (177,144). Below this, dealers amplify selling.
OI concentrations: Massive Put Wall at $5 (177,144 OI), Call Walls at $100 (67,145), $105 (91,164), and $125 (91,252). $92-$95 is a magnet.
Verdict: Favorable — Strong positive GEX and OI concentrations support mean reversion and pinning, protecting credit positions.
Premium Opportunities
#1
put credit spread
Sell $90/$85 put spread for 4/17 expiration (18 DTE)
Plays below the massive $5 OI support and the estimated $90 gamma flip. IV is elevated at 49.0% for this expiration, providing excellent credit. Strong pinning regime (GEX +$189M) makes a sustained breakdown below $90 less likely. Expected move is ±$8.20, placing the short put at the lower boundary.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if NFLX closes below $90 (gamma flip). Do not roll; take the loss if thesis breaks.
#2
iron condor
Sell $85/$80P x $105/$110C for 5/01 expiration (32 DTE)
Captures high IV (43.7% for 5/01) across a wide range bounded by major OI levels ($5 put wall below, $100/$105 call walls above). Positive GEX supports range-bound action. 32 DTE is a sweet spot for theta decay. Expected move is ±$9.70, placing wings well outside.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; close tested side for a debit if pinning weakens. Avoid holding into earnings (4/16).
#3
cash-secured put
Sell $88 put for 4/24 expiration (25 DTE)
For capital-secure accounts willing to own NFLX. Strike is 7.4% below spot, below the gamma flip, and collects rich premium (IV 46.1%). High probability in a pinning regime. Provides a good entry if assigned.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested, aiming to avoid assignment unless desired. Close at 80% profit. Exit on a close below $85.
#4
call credit spread (weekly)
Sell $98/$100 call spread for 4/10 expiration (11 DTE)
Defined-risk play into the $100 call OI wall (67,145). Spot is below this resistance, and pinning supports a rejection. IV for this weekly is 33.5%, providing decent credit relative to risk. Expected move is ±$4.38, keeping the short strike outside.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit or expire worthless. Exit immediately if NFLX closes above $97.50 (testing the wall).
Risk Alerts
Gamma flip estimated at ~$90. A break below invalidates the pinning thesis and requires exiting put-side credit positions.
Earnings estimated for 4/16 (17 days out). Close or roll all short premium positions before the announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
Massive, unusual OI in deep OTM puts ($5, $1.50, $2) creates a structural support floor but is a potential 'volatility event' anchor if breached.
Net premium flow is bullish (+$116.4M, P/C 1.46), suggesting underlying buying pressure that could test call-side resistance ($100-$105). Monitor for a breakout above $97.
Unusual activity in 4/17 $126 put (IV 77.8%) and 6/18 $117.50 put shows institutional hedging for large downside moves—monitor for contagion into nearer-term strikes.
IV is normal for NFLX but elevated in absolute terms. Be aware of IV crush risk on any calm, range-bound consolidation, especially in longer-dated positions.
Read the Theta Gang analysis for NFLX for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.