base 5; +1 normal IV; +1 strong pinning; +0.5 favorable flow; -0.5 gamma flip proximity
Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (50.1%), elevated through May, then flattens near 40-42%
Spot vs MP: Above by 1.6% ($93.47 vs $92.00 for 3/27)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$130.4M)
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Estimated near $90 based on massive $5 put OI (176,945). Below this, dealers amplify selling.
OI concentrations: Massive Put Wall at $5 (176,945 OI), Call Walls at $100 (66,876), $105 (91,169), and $125 (91,198). $92-$95 is a magnet.
#1put credit spread
Sell $90/$85 put spread for 4/17 expiration (19 DTE)
Plays below the massive $5 OI support and the estimated $90 gamma flip. IV is elevated at 50.1% for this expiration, providing excellent credit. Strong pinning regime (GEX +$130M) makes a sustained breakdown below $90 less likely. Expected move is ±$8.45, placing the short put at the lower boundary.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if NFLX closes below $90 (gamma flip). Do not roll; take the loss if thesis breaks.
#2iron condor
Sell $85/$80P x $105/$110C for 5/01 expiration (33 DTE)
Captures high IV (44.5% for 5/01) across a wide range bounded by major OI levels ($5 put wall below, $100/$105 call walls above). Positive GEX supports range-bound action. 33 DTE is a sweet spot for theta decay. Expected move is ±$9.88, placing wings well outside.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; close tested side for a debit if pinning weakens. Avoid holding into earnings (4/16).
#3cash-secured put
Sell $87.50 put for 4/24 expiration (26 DTE)
For capital-secure accounts willing to own NFLX. Strike is 6.4% below spot, below the gamma flip, and collects rich premium (IV 46.1%). High probability in a pinning regime. Provides a good entry if assigned.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested, aiming to avoid assignment unless desired. Close at 80% profit. Exit on a close below $85.
#4call credit spread (weekly)
Sell $98/$100 call spread for 4/10 expiration (12 DTE)
Defined-risk play into the $100 call OI wall (66,876). Spot is below this resistance, and pinning supports a rejection. IV for this weekly is 35.9%, providing decent credit relative to risk. Expected move is ±$4.81, keeping the short strike outside.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit or expire worthless. Exit immediately if NFLX closes above $97.50 (testing the wall).
!Gamma flip estimated at ~$90. A break below invalidates the pinning thesis and requires exiting put-side credit positions.
!Earnings estimated for 4/16 (19 days out). Close or roll all short premium positions before the announcement to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Massive, unusual OI in deep OTM puts ($5, $1.50, $2) creates a structural support floor but is a potential 'volatility event' anchor if breached.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$35.1M, P/C 1.69), suggesting underlying buying pressure that could test call-side resistance ($100-$105). Monitor for a breakout above $95.
!Unusual activity in 4/17 $118 and $126 puts shows institutional hedging for large downside moves—monitor for contagion into nearer-term strikes.
!IV is normal for NFLX but elevated in absolute terms. Be aware of IV crush risk on any calm, range-bound consolidation, especially in longer-dated positions.