base 5; +2 high IV; +1 strong pinning; +0.5 favorable flow; -0.5 gamma flip proximity
Term structure: Humped at 4/17 (47.4%), elevated through May, then flattens near 40%
Spot vs MP: Above by 1.4% ($93.32 vs $92.00 for 3/27)
GEX regime: Strong Pinning (GEX +$145.5M)
Gamma flip: ~$90.00 — Estimated near $90 based on massive $5 put OI. Below this, dealers amplify selling.
OI concentrations: Massive Put Wall at $5 (172K OI), Call Walls at $100 (65K) & $105 (91K). $93-$95 is a magnet.
#1put credit spread
Sell $90/$85 put spread for 4/17 expiration (21 DTE)
Plays below the massive $5 OI support and the estimated $90 gamma flip. High IV (47.4% for 4/17) provides excellent credit. Strong pinning regime makes a breakdown below $90 less likely.
Mgmt: Close at 65% max profit. Exit if NFLX closes below $90 (gamma flip). Roll only if tested but pinning thesis remains intact.
#2iron condor
Sell $85/$80P x $105/$110C for 5/01 expiration (35 DTE)
Captures high IV (45.0% for 5/01) across a wide range bounded by major OI levels ($5 put wall below, $100/$105 call walls above). Positive GEX supports range-bound action. 35 DTE is a sweet spot for theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 50% max profit. Manage wings independently; close tested side for a debit if pinning weakens. Avoid holding into earnings (none imminent).
#3cash-secured put
Sell $87.50 put for 4/24 expiration (28 DTE)
For capital-secure accounts willing to own NFLX. Strike is 6.2% below spot, below the gamma flip, and collects rich premium (IV 45.8%). High probability in a pinning regime. Provides a good entry if assigned.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if tested, aiming to avoid assignment unless desired. Close at 80% profit. Exit on a close below $85.
#4call credit spread (weekly)
Sell $98/$100 call spread for 4/02 expiration (6 DTE)
Defined-risk play into the $100 call OI wall (65K). Short DTE accelerates theta decay. High IV for weekly (37.7%) provides decent credit relative to risk. Spot is below this resistance, and pinning supports a rejection.
Mgmt: Close at 80% profit or expire worthless. Exit immediately if NFLX closes above $97.50 (testing the wall).
!Gamma flip estimated at ~$90. A break below invalidates the pinning thesis and requires exiting put-side credit positions.
!Massive, unusual OI in deep OTM puts ($5, $1.50, $2) creates a structural support floor but is a potential 'volatility event' anchor if breached.
!IV is high but not extreme for NFLX. Be aware of IV crush risk on any calm, range-bound consolidation.
!Net premium flow is bullish (+$20M, P/C 0.73), suggesting underlying buying pressure that could test call-side resistance ($100-$105).
!Unusual activity in 4/17 $114, $118, $126 puts shows institutional hedging/speculation for large downside moves—monitor for contagion.