NEM Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +2 strong net premium & call-dominant flow; +1 GEX pinning aligns with spot above MP; -0.5 high IV regime introduces noise

Watch next session: $116C 4/2 expiry flow for pinning play; Any defensive put flow below $100; Follow-through on $140C 5/15 block

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$15.0M bullish

P/C volume ratio: 0.60 — strongly call-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 0.80 — moderate call lean in positioning

Institutions are paying significant premium for upside calls, particularly in the $50-$130 range, driving a strongly bullish net premium. The flow is concentrated in longer-dated, OTM calls, suggesting a strategic, longer-term bullish bet rather than short-term speculation.

Notable Prints

NEM 4/2 $116 Call

Vol: 1,061

OI: 366

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 53.6%

Notional: ~$123k (est. mid $1.16)

Intent: Short-term directional bet or gamma scalp ahead of expiry

Dual read: Buying for a move above $116 before Friday, or selling against a long position (covered call).

Read-through: With spot at $108.25, this is an aggressive 7.2% OTM bet for a 2-day expiry. The high volume/OI ratio suggests new positioning. Likely a bullish pinning play, betting spot drifts toward this strike given the positive GEX environment.

NEM 5/15 $140 Call

Vol: 767

OI: 367

Vol/OI: 2.1x

IV: 54.3%

Notional: ~$230k (est. mid $3.00)

Intent: Fresh directional call buying for a significant breakout

Dual read: Bought (bullish breakout) or sold as part of a complex spread (e.g., call calendar).

Read-through: A 29% OTM call for a 45d expiry. The size and new positioning (vol > 2x OI) indicate a meaningful bullish bet. This aligns with the massive premium flow into the $130 and $140 strikes, suggesting institutional interest in far OTM leverage.

NEM 4/10 $110 Put

Vol: 638

OI: 333

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 50.5%

Notional: ~$64k (est. mid $1.00)

Intent: Hedge or speculative put purchase

Dual read: Buying protection for a long stock position, or selling for premium (credit put).

Read-through: Slightly ITM put ($110 vs. spot $108.25). The volume and IV (~50.5%) suggest this could be protective buying by a long holder, creating a synthetic collar with the OTM calls being bought. It's a logical hedge against the bullish call flow.

NEM 4/10 $107 Call

Vol: 286

OI: 114

Vol/OI: 2.5x

IV: 59.6%

Notional: ~$57k (est. mid $2.00)

Intent: Near-the-money directional call buying

Dual read: Buying for a move above $107, or selling a call against stock.

Read-through: Slightly ITM call. The elevated IV (59.6%) and new positioning suggest buyers are willing to pay up for near-term upside exposure. This complements the more aggressive OTM call flow, showing bullish conviction across multiple strikes.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Massive premium paid for $50, $55, $120, $130, $115 calls. Focus on far OTM ($50-$65) and moderate OTM ($115-$130).

Put additions: Modest premium in $110, $115, $85 puts, likely hedging. Largest put OI is at $95 and $105.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$3.3M) indicates net long gamma, promoting pinning. This aligns with bullish call flow and spot trading above max pain ($100).

OI clusters: Major call OI at $65 (18,450) and $180 (10,416) — legacy positions. Key near-term walls: $120 Call (5,391 OI), $95 Put (5,516 OI - gamma flip level).

Hedging evidence: Yes — Put flow at $110 and OI at $95/$105 suggests hedging is present but subordinate to the dominant call buying. The $110P 4/10 print is a clear hedge candidate.

Max pain context: Spot ($108.25) is 8.2% above nearest max pain ($100). The positive GEX is pulling spot higher, toward call-heavy strikes like $109 and $110 for later expiries.

Signal vs Noise

~The enormous premium flow into $50 and $55 calls is almost certainly NOT directional. These are deep, deep OTM (50%+ below spot) with high OI. This is characteristic of long-dated, low-cost speculation or part of complex multi-leg strategies (e.g., call spreads, ratios). It adds to bullish sentiment but is not a direct near-term price target.

~High volume in the $116C 4/2 is likely a short-term pinning/gamma play by dealers or fast money, given the 2-day expiry and positive GEX environment. It's a tactical signal, not a structural one.

~The elevated IV regime (~62%) means a portion of the premium paid is for volatility, not just delta. Some call buying may be vol positioning, not purely directional.

Key Conclusions

🐂Strong institutional call buying drives +$15M net premium, the clearest bullish signal.

📌Positive GEX (+$3.3M) supports a pinning regime, with $95 as the key gamma flip and support level.

🎯Watch $116 for 4/2 expiry pinning and $140 for 5/15 as an aggressive upside target.

🛡️Hedging via $110P and large $95P OI provides a floor, defining the risk zone below $100.

Read the Flow analysis for NEM for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.