base 4; +2 high IV; +1 pinning regime; +1 spot above MP; -2 liquidity constraints
Term structure: Steeply inverted: 68% for 2DTE, decaying to ~55% for 30-45 DTE, ~50% for long-dated
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 8.2% ($108.25 vs $100)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$3.3M — mean-reverting)
Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Below $95, negative gamma could accelerate moves lower
OI concentrations: Strong put support at $95 (5,516 OI) and $105 (5,349 OI). Call wall at $120 (5,391 OI).
#1put spread
Sell $95/$90 put spread 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
Targets major OI support at $95, well below spot ($108.25) and gamma flip ($95). 45 DTE captures high IV (55.1%) while avoiding the steepest near-term IV crush. Max pain for this expiry is $105, providing a buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit. Exit if spot closes below $100 (next major OI level). Roll only if credit >50% of original. Use limit orders due to liquidity.
#2iron condor
Sell $100/$95P x $120/$125C 2026-05-01 (31 DTE)
Capitalizes on pinning between OI put wall ($95/$105) and call wall ($120). Expected move is ±$15.57 (14.4%), placing short strikes near its edges. IV of 57.7% provides robust premium.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side for credit if possible, otherwise close entire position. Exit if spot breaches $98 or $122.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $100 put 2026-05-15 (45 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own stock. Strike is at key max pain level for near-term expiries, below spot by 7.6%. Collects high time value (IV 55.1%) with significant downside buffer.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if spot approaches $102. Close at 80% profit. Be prepared for assignment below $100; ensure cash is available.
#4call credit spread
Sell $120/$125 call spread 2026-04-17 (17 DTE)
Defined-risk bearish play against the strong $120 call wall (5,391 OI). Spot needs to rally >11% to breach. Uses weekly expiration to capitalize on high near-term IV (55.6%) and rapid theta decay.
Mgmt: Close at 70% profit. Exit immediately if spot closes above $118. Do not hold through earnings (4/22-4/23).
!Earnings expected 2026-04-22 or 2026-04-23 — CLOSE ALL SHORT PREMIUM POSITIONS BEFORE THE ANNOUNCEMENT. Never sell naked through earnings.
!Extremely high IV (>60%) can lead to violent IV crush post-earnings, damaging short vega positions.
!Moderate liquidity — Use limit orders for all entries/exits. Multi-leg fills may be wide.
!Gamma flip at ~$95 — A break below this level could see accelerated selling pressure.
!Net premium flow is strongly bullish (+$15.0M, P/C 0.60), indicating institutional buying pressure that could challenge short call positions.
!Long-dated max pain trends down to $60-$85, suggesting structural bearish positioning in the options market over time.