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NEM

Newmont CorporationClose $107.39EOD only

Max Pain

$114.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$3.54

3.3% from close

Price Gap

+6.61

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

0.77

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects NEM options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

NEM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish with a structural pinning regime, but facing a significant gravitational pull from distant max pain levels. Confidence: 7/10. The strong positive GEX and bullish flow support a grind higher, but the spot's position 8.2% above the nearest max pain ($100) creates a persistent drag risk.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0; GEX +$3.3M and bullish flow strongly aligned. No override—the spot vs. MP conflict is priced into the base score.

Supports: GEX +$3.3M (pinning), Net Premium +$15.0M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.60 (call dominance)
Conflicts: Spot $108.25 is 8.2% above nearest max pain ($100), creating a persistent downward pull.

📌Strong pinning regime (GEX +$3.3M) supports a range-bound grind.

⬇️Spot far above max pain ($100) creates a persistent downward gravitational force.

📈Bullish flow (P/C 0.60) and net premium +$15M suggest institutional upside bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 61.7% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers and long volatility strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.3M indicates strong dealer pinning activity, suppressing volatility near-term.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$15M with P/C vol 0.60 shows clear institutional call buying dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $108.25 is significantly above the nearest max pain ($100), creating a persistent downward pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX sign remains positive across expirations, and the max pain ladder shows a clear downward trend from $100 to $85 over 15 expirations, indicating a structural, multi-week pinning/drifting regime.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$101.64$114.86

Pinning GEX dominates; break below $101.64 (2d EM low) signals failure.

Next 1 week

$98.75$117.75

Max pain gravity ($100) and put OI at $105/$95 create downside pressure.

Next 2 weeks

$96.64$119.86

Downward max pain trend ($109 → $102) and structural call OI wall at $120 cap rallies.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $100 (2026-03-27); $104 (2026-04-02); $109 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $101.64/$114.86; 1w $98.75/$117.75

Support: $95.00 · $105.00 · $70.00

Resistance: $180.00 · $145.00 · $120.00

Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,516

Structural: **Call OI wall $120-$180** is a massive structural cap. **Put floor $70-$95** provides distant but heavy support. The $95 gamma flip is a critical near-term fulcrum.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.3M

DEX: +19.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$95 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,516)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated around spot; dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility. A move below the ~$95 gamma flip would force dealers to sell spot, accelerating a downtrend.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 61.7% is extremely elevated (no VIX given, but context is gold miner—high vol expected). Premium selling has significant edge.

Term structure: Steeply downward sloping: 68.3% (2d) → 56.3% (10d) → ~50% (6mo+). The 2-day expiry is massively rich, creating a powerful calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: **68.3% IV in 2-day vs. 56.3% in 10-day** — a ~12 vol-point differential supports selling the 4/2 expiry and buying a longer-dated one.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$15.0M bullish; P/C vol 0.60, P/C OI 0.80.

Directional prints: $116C 4/2 vol 1,061 vs OI 366 (2.9x) — could be bullish call buying or short covering. $140C 5/15 vol 767 vs OI 367 (2.1x) — likely bullish positioning for a breakout.

Unusual: Massive premium flow into deep ITM $50 and $55 calls (>$1M net each) — likely hedging/convertible arbitrage or synthetic long stock, not directional speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $95 gamma flip triggers dealer spot selling, accelerating downtrend.

!Extreme IV (61.7%) presents vol crush risk post-4/2 expiry.

!Persistent downward max pain gravity ($100) could overwhelm near-term bullish flow.

!Structural call OI wall at $120 severely limits upside momentum.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at ~$108.	Exposed to max pain gravity and $120 OI wall; no volatility edge.
Short stock	Moderate	Short shares at ~$108.	Contrary to bullish flow; positive GEX will pin against you near-term.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock, sell $115C or $120C 4/17 (45 DTE).	Stock drifts down toward max pain; capped upside at OI wall.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $100/$95 put spread 4/17 (targeting max pain and gamma flip).	Break below $95 gamma flip.
Long calls	Weak	Buy $110C 4/17.	Buying extremely rich IV with strong OI resistance overhead.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $105/$100 put spread 4/17.	Pinning GEX suppresses moves; time decay in high IV.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	$100/$95P x $115/$120C 4/17 (within 1w EM bounds).	VIX elevated but GEX positive; defined risk in a pinning regime.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell $110C 4/2 (68.3% IV), buy $110C 4/10 (56.3% IV).	Spot moves dramatically, eroding long leg value.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80C Jan 2027 (~50% IV), sell $115C 4/17 against it.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Short-Term Volatility Calendar

Sell $110C 4/2, Buy $110C 4/10

Capitalizes on the massive 12 vol-point differential between the rich 2-day and cheaper 10-day expiries. Benefits from IV crush in the short leg post-expiry while maintaining longer-dated delta exposure.

Debit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: Variable (calendar)

Mgmt: Close after 4/2 expiry for vol crush profit; manage delta if spot moves beyond $105/$115.

Traders seeking to harvest extreme near-term IV with defined risk.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $100/$95 Put Spread 4/17

Targets the magnetic pull to max pain ($100) with a buffer down to the gamma flip ($95). High IV provides attractive credit for selling puts in a pinning regime.

Credit: $1.25-$1.50

Max loss: $3.75

BE: $98.75

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; exit if spot closes below $97.50.

Defined-risk bulls or neutral traders comfortable owning at $100.

Covered Call at Resistance

Buy stock at ~$108, Sell $120C 4/17

A multi-week income play that aligns with the bullish flow while hedging against the structural $120 OI wall. The 45 DTE allows time for a potential grind higher while collecting premium from elevated IV.

Credit: $2.50-$3.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: $105.50

Mgmt: Roll the call up/out if challenged; consider closing if premium decays 50%.

Investors willing to own NEM but wanting immediate income and a clear exit plan.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot rallies to test $115 (near 1w EM high) → Sell $120/$125 call credit spread 4/17 (targeting OI wall).

IFIf spot declines to $101.50 (2d EM low) and holds → Enter the $100/$95 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf IV on the 4/2 expiry drops below 50% (vol crush) → Take profit on the short $110C 4/2 calendar spread.

EXITIf spot reaches $119 (approaching $120 OI wall) → Take profit on any short call positions or covered calls.

Tactical Summary

The regime is a conflict: bullish flow and pinning GEX support a grind higher, but powerful max pain gravity and a $120 OI wall cap upside. Favor selling premium (puts toward $100, calls toward $120) and harvesting extreme near-term IV via calendars. Invalidation is a close below $95. Top plays: 1) Calendar spread for vol arb, 2) Put spread for defined-risk bullish bias, 3) Covered call for stock owners seeking income.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.