NEM Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Outlook

Bullish with a structural pinning regime, but facing a significant gravitational pull from distant max pain levels. Confidence: 7/10. The strong positive GEX and bullish flow support a grind higher, but the spot's position 8.2% above the nearest max pain ($100) creates a persistent drag risk.

Confidence:

7 / 10

Base 7.0; GEX +$3.3M and bullish flow strongly aligned. No override—the spot vs. MP conflict is priced into the base score.

Supports: GEX +$3.3M (pinning), Net Premium +$15.0M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.60 (call dominance)
Conflicts: Spot $108.25 is 8.2% above nearest max pain ($100), creating a persistent downward pull.

📌Strong pinning regime (GEX +$3.3M) supports a range-bound grind.

⬇️Spot far above max pain ($100) creates a persistent downward gravitational force.

📈Bullish flow (P/C 0.60) and net premium +$15M suggest institutional upside bias.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 61.7% is extremely high, favoring premium sellers and long volatility strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.3M indicates strong dealer pinning activity, suppressing volatility near-term.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$15M with P/C vol 0.60 shows clear institutional call buying dominance.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot at $108.25 is significantly above the nearest max pain ($100), creating a persistent downward pull.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX sign remains positive across expirations, and the max pain ladder shows a clear downward trend from $100 to $85 over 15 expirations, indicating a structural, multi-week pinning/drifting regime.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$101.64$114.86

Pinning GEX dominates; break below $101.64 (2d EM low) signals failure.

Next 1 week

$98.75$117.75

Max pain gravity ($100) and put OI at $105/$95 create downside pressure.

Next 2 weeks

$96.64$119.86

Downward max pain trend ($109 → $102) and structural call OI wall at $120 cap rallies.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $100 (2026-03-27); $104 (2026-04-02); $109 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $101.64/$114.86; 1w $98.75/$117.75

Support: $95.00 · $105.00 · $70.00

Resistance: $180.00 · $145.00 · $120.00

Gamma flip: ~$95.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,516

Structural: **Call OI wall $120-$180** is a massive structural cap. **Put floor $70-$95** provides distant but heavy support. The $95 gamma flip is a critical near-term fulcrum.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.3M

DEX: +19.7M shares

Gamma flip: ~$95 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 5,516)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX concentrated around spot; dealers are net long gamma, suppressing volatility. A move below the ~$95 gamma flip would force dealers to sell spot, accelerating a downtrend.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 61.7% is extremely elevated (no VIX given, but context is gold miner—high vol expected). Premium selling has significant edge.

Term structure: Steeply downward sloping: 68.3% (2d) → 56.3% (10d) → ~50% (6mo+). The 2-day expiry is massively rich, creating a powerful calendar spread opportunity.

Skew: **68.3% IV in 2-day vs. 56.3% in 10-day** — a ~12 vol-point differential supports selling the 4/2 expiry and buying a longer-dated one.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$15.0M bullish; P/C vol 0.60, P/C OI 0.80.

Directional prints: $116C 4/2 vol 1,061 vs OI 366 (2.9x) — could be bullish call buying or short covering. $140C 5/15 vol 767 vs OI 367 (2.1x) — likely bullish positioning for a breakout.

Unusual: Massive premium flow into deep ITM $50 and $55 calls (>$1M net each) — likely hedging/convertible arbitrage or synthetic long stock, not directional speculation.

Risks & Catalysts

!Break below $95 gamma flip triggers dealer spot selling, accelerating downtrend.

!Extreme IV (61.7%) presents vol crush risk post-4/2 expiry.

!Persistent downward max pain gravity ($100) could overwhelm near-term bullish flow.

!Structural call OI wall at $120 severely limits upside momentum.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at ~$108.	Exposed to max pain gravity and $120 OI wall; no volatility edge.
Short stock	Moderate	Short shares at ~$108.	Contrary to bullish flow; positive GEX will pin against you near-term.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock, sell $115C or $120C 4/17 (45 DTE).	Stock drifts down toward max pain; capped upside at OI wall.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Strong	Sell $100/$95 put spread 4/17 (targeting max pain and gamma flip).	Break below $95 gamma flip.
Long calls	Weak	Buy $110C 4/17.	Buying extremely rich IV with strong OI resistance overhead.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $105/$100 put spread 4/17.	Pinning GEX suppresses moves; time decay in high IV.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	$100/$95P x $115/$120C 4/17 (within 1w EM bounds).	VIX elevated but GEX positive; defined risk in a pinning regime.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Sell $110C 4/2 (68.3% IV), buy $110C 4/10 (56.3% IV).	Spot moves dramatically, eroding long leg value.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $80C Jan 2027 (~50% IV), sell $115C 4/17 against it.	Capital intensive; long-dated IV still elevated.

Top Plays

Short-Term Volatility Calendar

Sell $110C 4/2, Buy $110C 4/10

Capitalizes on the massive 12 vol-point differential between the rich 2-day and cheaper 10-day expiries. Benefits from IV crush in the short leg post-expiry while maintaining longer-dated delta exposure.

Debit: $1.10-$1.30

Max loss: Debit paid

BE: Variable (calendar)

Mgmt: Close after 4/2 expiry for vol crush profit; manage delta if spot moves beyond $105/$115.

Traders seeking to harvest extreme near-term IV with defined risk.

Defined-Risk Put Spread

Sell $100/$95 Put Spread 4/17

Targets the magnetic pull to max pain ($100) with a buffer down to the gamma flip ($95). High IV provides attractive credit for selling puts in a pinning regime.

Credit: $1.25-$1.50

Max loss: $3.75

BE: $98.75

Mgmt: Take profit at 60-70% of max credit; exit if spot closes below $97.50.

Defined-risk bulls or neutral traders comfortable owning at $100.

Covered Call at Resistance

Buy stock at ~$108, Sell $120C 4/17

A multi-week income play that aligns with the bullish flow while hedging against the structural $120 OI wall. The 45 DTE allows time for a potential grind higher while collecting premium from elevated IV.

Credit: $2.50-$3.00

Max loss: Unlimited below stock purchase price

BE: $105.50

Mgmt: Roll the call up/out if challenged; consider closing if premium decays 50%.

Investors willing to own NEM but wanting immediate income and a clear exit plan.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot rallies to test $115 (near 1w EM high) → Sell $120/$125 call credit spread 4/17 (targeting OI wall).

IFIf spot declines to $101.50 (2d EM low) and holds → Enter the $100/$95 put spread 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITIf IV on the 4/2 expiry drops below 50% (vol crush) → Take profit on the short $110C 4/2 calendar spread.

EXITIf spot reaches $119 (approaching $120 OI wall) → Take profit on any short call positions or covered calls.

Tactical Summary

The regime is a conflict: bullish flow and pinning GEX support a grind higher, but powerful max pain gravity and a $120 OI wall cap upside. Favor selling premium (puts toward $100, calls toward $120) and harvesting extreme near-term IV via calendars. Invalidation is a close below $95. Top plays: 1) Calendar spread for vol arb, 2) Put spread for defined-risk bullish bias, 3) Covered call for stock owners seeking income.

Read the Directional analysis for NEM for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.