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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $176.27EOD only
Max Pain
$167.50
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$13.05
7.4% from close
Price Gap
-8.77
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
51
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.35
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 19, 2026 close
MRVL Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected on or before 5/28, with options market pricing a significant event into the 4/10 expiration. IV is highly elevated (60%) for that cycle, creating a prime IV crush setup. The stock is in a bullish flow regime, but historical moves have been muted relative to expectations, favoring premium-selling strategies.

Confidence:
6.5 / 10
base 5; +1.5 for strong IV kink and clear earnings date; -0 for data quality
Most important: Sharp IV term structure kink at 4/10 expiration (60% vs 32% for 4/02) confirms the market is pricing earnings risk into that weekly option. This creates a high-probability IV crush play.
⚠️Earnings date is estimated (5/28), but IV term structure suggests the market is pricing the event into the 4/10 options. Monitor for official confirmation.
📈Extremely bullish options flow (P/C 0.38, +$81M net prem) provides a strong directional tailwind for put credit spreads.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 58%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$25.9M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Bullish (net prem +$81.3M, P/C 0.38)
Spot vs MP
Above max pain by 7.7% (spot $99.05 vs MP $92)
Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Below $75, dealers may amplify downside moves due to large put OI concentration.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-05-28 (58 days)explicit

Expected moves:

  • 4/10 (10d): ±$9.92 (10.0%)
  • 5/01 (31d): ±$14.80 (14.9%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Extreme kink at 4/10 expiration (60% ATM IV) vs. 4/02 (32.7%). IV normalizes to ~57% for later expirations.

Crush estimate: ~20-25 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~35-40% for the 4/10 cycle.

Skew: P/C OI ratio of 1.35 shows more put open interest, but P/C volume of 0.38 and massive net call premium (+$81M) indicate strong bullish flow.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Data not provided for historical expected moves. EPS surprises have been consistently positive but small (+$0.01 to +$0.03).

Directional bias: Consistent EPS beats suggest upside bias, but magnitude of post-earnings reaction is unknown.

Key Levels

1$75 (Gamma Flip / Major Put OI)
2$100 (Call OI Wall / Spot)
3$92 (Max Pain 4/02)
4EM Bounds: $89 - $109 (4/10)

Flow Highlights

Massive bullish call flow at $100, $105, $110 strikes (Net Prem > $9M each).

Institutional or large speculative bets on a significant move higher, potentially through earnings.

Unusual activity in 4/02 $105C (Vol 25,048 vs OI 2,620) and 4/02 $107C (Vol 3,455 vs OI 188).

Short-dated, OTM call buying ahead of a potential catalyst, possibly positioning for a pre-earnings run or immediate post-announcement gap.

Strategies

Short Iron Condor (IV Crush Play)
Sell $89/$85P x $109/$115C 4/10
Credit: $1.10-$1.40
Max loss: $3.90
Max gain: $1.25
BE: $87.75 / $110.25
Trigger: Enter 3-5 days before suspected earnings date (targeting 4/10 expiration).
Capitalizes on the extreme IV (60%) priced into the 4/10 cycle. Strikes are placed just outside the expected move, and historical consistent (but small) beats suggest a lower probability of a massive surprise.
Outperforms: Stock stays within the 10% expected move bounds post-earnings and IV crushes sharply.
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond the short strikes ($85 or $115).
Bull Put Spread (Directional/Bullish Flow)
Sell $85P / Buy $80P 4/10
Credit: $1.50-$1.80
Max loss: $3.50
Max gain: $1.65
BE: $83.50
Trigger: On any pullback toward $95-$97, given strong bullish flow.
Aligns with the overwhelmingly bullish options flow (P/C 0.38, +$81M net prem). Utilizes the high IV to collect premium. The $85 strike aligns with significant put OI and is below the gamma flip at $75.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $85 through expiration; benefits from IV crush and positive delta.
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $85 support.
Long Straddle (Volatility/Event Play)
Buy $100 Straddle 4/10
Max loss: $9.92
Max gain: Unlimited
BE: $90.08 / $109.92
Trigger: Enter only if IV dips below 55% before the event, or if uncertainty around guidance spikes.
A pure bet on a larger-than-expected move. The high cost ($9.92 debit) requires a move beyond the breakevens, which are exactly at the expected move bounds. This is a lower-probability, high-payout play against the historical trend of small surprises.
Outperforms: Actual post-earnings move exceeds 10% (the expected move).
Underperforms: Stock pins near $100 and IV crushes from 60% post-event.

Risk Assessment

!Gap Risk: The 10% expected move is significant. A guidance miss or beat could easily trigger a gap beyond the iron condor's wings.
!IV Crush Timing: If earnings are not on 4/10, the IV crush may be delayed or less severe, hurting short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Excellent, with high OI and volume across strikes.
!Sizing: Due to the high IV and potential for a large gap, size short premium positions conservatively (e.g., 1-2% risk capital).

What to Watch

?IV trajectory on the 4/10 expiration for confirmation of earnings timing.
?Spot price action relative to the $100 call OI wall and $75 gamma flip.
?Any news or rumors confirming the exact earnings date for Q1 (est. 5/28).
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.