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MRVL

Marvell Technology, Inc.Close $176.27EOD only

Max Pain

$167.50

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$13.05

7.4% from close

Price Gap

-8.77

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.35

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 19, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MRVL options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 19, 2026 close

MRVL Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Bullish with a strong pinning regime, but stretched 7.7% above max pain creates a short-term headwind. Confidence: 7/10. The regime is powerful (GEX +$25.9M, net premium +$81M) but spot is extended; expect a tug-of-war between bullish flow and gravitational pull toward $92-$93.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned bullish; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 7.7% from MP

Supports: GEX +$25.9M (strong pinning), Net Premium +$81.3M (bullish), P/C Volume 0.38 (call dominance)
Conflicts: Spot $99.05 is 7.7% above nearest max pain ($92), P/C OI 1.35 shows put-heavy structural positioning

📌Strong GEX pinning regime active

📈Massive bullish premium flow into calls

⚠️Spot far above MP; risk of mean reversion

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 57.7% is extremely high — premium selling has significant edge, but tail risk elevated.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$25.9M concentrated near spot — strong pinning force, suppressing volatility and anchoring price.

Flow Regime

Bullish

Net premium +$81.3M with P/C vol 0.38 — aggressive call buying driving spot higher.

Spot vs Max Pain

Above

Spot $99.05 is above all near-term MP ($92, $90, $93) — creates a gravitational pull lower.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — GEX sign positive and flow regime consistent across expirations; max pain ladder shows a persistent $90-$93 anchor over next 2 months, suggesting the pinning/mean-reversion dynamic lasts beyond a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$91.65$106.46

GEX pinning fights bullish flow; a break above $106.46 (2d EM high) accelerates, while a hold below $100 favors drift to MP.

Next 1 week

$89.14$108.97

Pinning dominates; strong support at put OI walls ($85, $80), resistance at call OI ($100, $105).

Next 2 weeks

$87.13$110.97

MP gravity and falling MP trend ($92 → $90) suggest drift lower unless bullish flow persists.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $92 (2026-03-27); $90 (2026-04-02); $93 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $91.65/$106.46; 1w $89.14/$108.97

Support: $75.00 · $70.00 · $80.00

Resistance: $100.00 · $105.00

Gamma flip: ~$75.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,527

Structural: Major call OI wall at $105 (10.9K OI) caps rallies; massive put floors at $75 (25.5K OI) and $70 (13.6K OI) provide structural support far below.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+25.9M

DEX: +27.6M shares

Gamma flip: ~$75 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 25,527)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$25.9M acts as a volatility suppressant; dealers are net long gamma, hedging by buying dips and selling rallies, reinforcing the pin. A move below the gamma flip ~$75 would trigger significant delta hedging (selling).

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 57.7% is extremely elevated — selling premium is attractive, but beware of event risk (earnings ~5/28).

Term structure: Steeply inverted: 2d IV 32.7% << 10d IV 60.0%. Massive kink at April 10 expiry, then elevated but flat. Suggests a high-vol event priced for early April, then sustained high vol.

Skew: Inverted term structure (10d IV 60% vs 2d 32.7%) offers a ~27 vol-pt differential — supports selling near-dated premium against longer-dated longs (e.g., reverse calendar).

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$81.3M overwhelmingly bullish; P/C vol 0.38 confirms aggressive call volume.

Directional prints: $105C 4/2 vol 25,048 vs OI 2,620 (9.6x) — likely bought calls targeting quick breakout. $100P 4/10 vol 1,340 vs OI 153 (8.8x) — could be protective puts or speculative downside bets.

Unusual: $107C 4/2 vol 3,455 vs OI 188 (18.4x) at 41.2% IV — OTM call sweep, bullish momentum bet.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$75 is a long way down, but a break triggers dealer delta sell-off.

!Spot 7.7% above MP — mean reversion risk is high if bullish flow abates.

!Extremely high IV (57.7%) can compress rapidly, hurting long premium positions.

!Inverted term structure implies a near-term catalyst (early April) that could break the pin.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at $99	Immediate mean reversion to $92 MP; high beta to sector.
Short stock	Weak	Short shares at $99	Strong bullish flow and positive GEX pin can squeeze higher.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Own stock, sell $105C 4/17 (~45 DTE) for ~$3.00	Stock called away above $105; upside capped.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $85/$80 put spread 4/17 for ~$1.50 credit	Break below put OI floor at $80.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $100C 4/17 for ~$7.00	High IV (57.1%) crush and pinning erodes premium.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy $95/$90 put spread 4/17 for ~$2.00 debit	Bullish flow persists; pin holds.
Iron condor	Moderate	$90/$85P x $105/$110C 4/17	VIX elevated (>55) and spot far from center; wings may be tested.
Calendar/diagonal	Strong	Reverse Calendar: Sell $100C 4/10 (60% IV), Buy $100C 4/17 (57% IV)	Spot moves sharply away from $100, losing theta decay.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Buy $80C Jan 2027 (~$25), Sell $105C 4/17 (~$3)	Long-dated IV high (59.9%); capital intensive.

Top Plays

Reverse Call Calendar

Sell $100C 4/10, Buy $100C 4/17

Capitalizes on the steep IV inversion (60% vs 57%) by selling the richer near-dated vol. Benefits from pinning at/under $100 and rapid theta decay on the short leg.

Credit: $0.40-$0.60

Max loss: Unlimited (above short strike)

BE: Variable; ideal is spot at $100 at 4/10 expiry.

Mgmt: Close for 50% max profit; roll short leg if spot >$103. Exit if spot breaks above $106.46 (2d EM high).

Traders comfortable with pinning thesis, seeking to harvest vol differential.

Bull Put Spread

Sell $85/$80 Put Spread 4/17

Defined-risk yield on the massive put OI floor. High IV provides attractive premium, and the strong pinning regime supports a bounce off structural support.

Credit: $1.40-$1.60

Max loss: $3.50

BE: $83.60

Mgmt: Take profit at 60% max credit. Exit if spot closes below $85 (short strike).

Defined-risk premium sellers bullish/neutral over 45 DTE.

Covered Call (45 DTE)

Own stock, Sell $105C 4/17

Generates income against existing shares while setting a sell target at the key $105 call OI wall. The 45 DTE aligns with the multi-week pinning thesis, allowing time for mean reversion or drift higher.

Credit: $2.80-$3.20

Max loss: Stock decline below purchase price

BE: $96.05

Mgmt: Roll up/out if spot approaches $104. Consider closing at 50% premium if pin breaks early.

Shareholders looking to enhance yield and reduce cost basis.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot drops to $92 (touches 3/27 MP) and holds for 1 hour → Enter Bull Put Spread: Sell $85/$80 put spread 4/17.

IFSpot rallies to $105 (tests call OI wall) and IV term structure remains inverted → Enter Reverse Calendar: Sell $105C 4/10, Buy $105C 4/17.

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes above $106.46 (2d EM high) → Exit all short premium positions (calendars, put spreads).

EXITIV term structure flattens (10d IV < 50%) → Take profit on Reverse Calendar trade.

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: Strong pinning regime (GEX +$25.9M) conflicts with spot stretched above max pain, favoring range-bound mean reversion toward $92-$93 over the next few weeks. The regime favors selling premium (high IV) and defined-risk spreads. Top plays: 1) Reverse Calendar (harvests IV inversion), 2) Bull Put Spread (targets put floor), 3) Covered Call (for shareholders). Invalidation: a close above $106.46 breaks the pin and suggests trending bullish continuation.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.