base 5; +2 GEX/flow strongly aligned; +1 GEX positive (pinning); -1 spot 6.5% from MP
Term structure: Curve: short-dated IV (1-2w) ~31–41%, then a lift into the 22–43d band (ATM 44.8% @22d, 42.2% @36d). Good entry window 30–45 DTE where IV is richer than weeklies.
Spot vs MP: Above by 6.5% (spot $628.39 vs MP cluster around $590–$595; pre-computed: Spot vs MP: Above)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$161.0M — strong dealer gamma positive)
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Gamma flip ~ $500 — well below spot, so dealer amplification risk is low around current prices; dealers are more likely to pin into nearby GEX magnets than accelerate a trend now.
OI concentrations: Call OI wall $700-$900; Put floor $500; Near-term OI clusters: puts at $590 (3,668 OI), $600 (3,601 OI); calls concentrated at $650, $700, $630
#1put spread
Sell 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 600/575 put spread
Pinning regime + large GEX magnets at 625/630/620 make downside below 600 less likely; 36 DTE sits in the richer part of the term structure (ATM ~42.2%). Defined-risk spread limits tail while collecting elevated premium.
Mgmt: Take profit at 60–70% of max credit; roll down 1–2 strikes and widen if price approaches short strike and spread <25% of remaining width; cut to flat if META closes below $617.62 (2d EM guardrail) or if IV spikes >+8 pts vs entry.
#2cash-secured put (CSP)
Sell 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 610 put (naked, cash-secured)
Bullish flow + pinning and put OI clusters below 625 provide extra support; if comfortable owning META at ~610, this collects rich premium in the 30–45 DTE sweet spot.
Mgmt: Close at 50–70% profit; roll down and out 1–2 weeks if tested and you are comfortable taking assignment; cut if price closes below $617.62 or if GEX drops materially from +$161M.
#3covered call
Buy stock / Sell 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 630 call
If you want equity exposure or intend to be assigned on CSPs, selling 630 calls around a strong 630 GEX magnet captures high call premium; short strike is near a GEX concentration (630) so pinning helps.
Mgmt: Buy to close at 50–75% profit; if shares called away near the short strike, re-evaluate rolling up; if META rallies through 635 with strong volume/flow, consider rolling up or closing to avoid assignment if undesired.
#4calendar (debit calendar)
Sell 2026-04-15 (6 DTE) 630 call, buy 2026-05-15 (36 DTE) 630 call (calendar) — collect short-term theta
Front-week IVs are slightly cheaper than the 36d bucket but heavy short-term flow around 630/635 (unusual activity) gives an opportunity to sell gamma into the pin while owning longer-dated vega exposure.
Mgmt: Position is a debit: close for 30–50% profit when short leg decays; if spot moves >1.7% beyond 2d expected move (~$617.62-$639.17) consider closing short leg and re-establishing a different front-week.
!Heavy short-dated flow/OPA into 4/10 expiries: concentrated puts at 625/630/635 (multiple unusual activity items) — weekend/near-term pin risk; avoid naked short through the 4/10 wave unless hedged.
!Gamma flip well below spot (~$500) — tail gamma amplification unlikely at current levels, but a large market shock could still overwhelm dealer positioning.
!Close below 2d EM guardrail $617.62 invalidates credit bias — reduce or hedge positions if price closes and stays below this level.
!IV term structure: very cheap 4–8d buckets vs richer 22–43d — selling very short-dated naked premium (weeklies) risks pin/unwind; prefer defined-risk weeklies or 30–45 DTE.
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 (20 days) — not immediate, but avoid holding large naked short premium into the earnings print (close or hedge before 2026-04-24–04-28 window).