base 5.5; +0.5 high IV; +0.5 pinning regime; +0.5 inverted term structure opportunity; -1.0 earnings in 3 weeks
Term structure: Inverted: 2d IV 41.8% vs 25d IV 46.8% (5.0 vol-point differential), humped at 2026-05-01
Spot vs MP: Above by 1.9% (spot $573.02 vs near-term max pain $562-$572)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$36.9M)
Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Below $500, dealers amplify moves; far from spot ($73 below)
OI concentrations: Call wall $700-$800 (OI >100K), put floor $500 (OI 15,134)
#1short calendar spread
Sell $575 call 2026-05-01 (25 DTE, IV 46.8%) / Buy $575 call 2026-04-08 (2 DTE, IV 41.8%)
Exploits inverted IV term structure with 5.0 vol-point differential; sells high IV (46.8%) and buys low IV (41.8%); profits from accelerated theta decay of short near-dated option after 2026-04-08 expiry, with long option purchased at cheaper vol
Mgmt: Close after 2026-04-08 expiry if short option expires worthless; exit if IV differential collapses below 2 vol points; cut losses if spot moves beyond $590 or $560
#2put spread
Sell $550/$540 put spread 2026-05-22 (46 DTE)
Pinning regime with positive GEX; strikes near OI support ($550 put OI 422, $540 put OI 204) and above gamma flip ($500); IV elevated (44.0% at 46d) for premium capture
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit; exit if spot closes below $540; roll if tested but pinning holds
#3iron condor
Sell $550/$540P x $600/$610C 2026-05-22 (46 DTE)
Wide range within expected move ($505.52-$640.52 for 46d); call side uses OI resistance ($600 call OI 627, $610 call OI 870); positive GEX pinning supports range-bound thesis
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; exit if spot breaches either short strike; manage wings independently
#4credit spread
Sell $595/$600 call spread 2026-04-13 (7 DTE)
Weekly defined-risk play in high-IV environment (36.4% at 7d); short strike at GEX pin magnet ($595 with +$372K GEX) and OI cluster (1,060 OI); resistance from expected move ($595.07 upper bound)
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; exit if spot closes above $595; do not hold through earnings
!Earnings on 2026-04-29 (in 3 weeks) — close all naked or undefined-risk positions before announcement; inverted IV may reflect this event
!Gamma flip at $500 — breach could trigger accelerated selling; monitor for any move below $520
!High IV (46.5%) — favorable for selling but beware of IV crush post-earnings if holding longer-term
!Inverted IV term structure — if differential flattens prematurely, calendar spreads may underperform; monitor IV daily
!Unusual activity in near-term ITM puts (e.g., $575 put vol 7,119) suggests institutional hedging; may increase pinning but watch for directional pressure
!Call OI wall at $700-$800 (OI >100K) — distant but indicates long-term resistance; avoid selling calls above $650