Term structure: Humped at 29-36 DTE (~44-45%), elevated near-term IV for weeklies (25-33%).
Spot vs MP: Above max pain by 3.0% (spot $574.46 vs MP $558)
GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$44.0M)
OI concentrations: Major call walls far OTM at $750, $700, $800. Near-term OI support in $550-$560 range aligns with max pain. Notable $600 call OI (16,596).
#1put spread
Sell $560/$550 Put Spread exp 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Targets the max pain & OI support zone ($558-$560) with strong positive GEX pinning. 15 DTE captures accelerated theta decay. Credit is ~20% of spread width. Spot is well above, providing a buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 65% profit (~$1.43 credit kept). Roll down/out for a credit if spot breaches $565. Exit entirely on a daily close below $558.
#2iron condor
Sell $550/$545P x $590/$595C Iron Condor exp 2026-04-24 (22 DTE)
Plays the pinning range between max pain support (~$558) and the nearest major call OI wall ($590/$600). Positive GEX suppresses large moves. 22 DTE offers good premium for defined risk with a 6.9% expected move buffer.
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit. Manage wings independently: roll tested side out 1-2 weeks for a credit. Exit entire position if spot moves outside $545-$595.
#3cash-secured put
Sell $550 Put exp 2026-05-01 (29 DTE)
For capital-secure sellers willing to own META. Strike at max pain support with peak IV (~44.6% at 29 DTE) for premium capture. ~2.7% return on capital in 29 days. Strong pinning regime reduces likelihood of assignment.
Mgmt: Roll down/out for a credit if put tested (spot below $560). Accept assignment below $550 if comfortable; otherwise buy to close at a loss >2x credit received.
#4calendar spread
Sell $575 Call exp 2026-04-06 (4 DTE) / Buy $575 Call exp 2026-04-17 (15 DTE)
Exploits steep near-term IV term structure (25.3% vs 34.9%). Short call is ATM with spot likely pinned by positive GEX. High probability of short call expiring worthless. Unusual volume in weekly $575 calls supports liquidity.
Mgmt: Close entire spread for small profit if short call hits 80% profit. If spot rallies, long call protects; consider rolling short call up/out.
!Earnings estimated 2026-04-29 (~4 weeks out). Close or roll all short premium positions at least one week before this date to avoid IV crush and gap risk.
!Mixed flow regime (Net Prem -$82.8M, P/C 0.67) suggests institutional uncertainty, with large bearish premium flow into $770 and $680 puts. Size positions moderately.
!Massive OI call walls at $700-$800 are far away but represent potential long-term resistance if a major rally occurs.
!Max pain trend is falling ($558 → $550 over 23 expirations). Be alert for a gradual downward drift in the pinning point over coming weeks.
!Unusual volume in weekly $565-$575 strikes (exp 4/06) indicates heightened near-term hedging activity; monitor for any spot volatility around these levels.
!IV is normal, not elevated. Be selective with strikes; avoid selling premium too close to the money where theta decay is minimal relative to risk.