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META

Meta Platforms, Inc.Close $610.26EOD only

Max Pain

$602.50

Next expiry May 26, 2026

Expected Move

±$9.07

1.5% from close

Price Gap

-7.76

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

0.45

Slightly call-heavy

Consensus

8.0/10

Bullish tilt

Published snapshot: May 22, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects META options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 22, 2026 close

META Directional Report

Analysis based on market close April 7, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 7, 2026. A newer directional report is available for May 22, 2026.

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Outlook

Neutral-to-slightly-bullish with a short-term magnet to $575; confidence: 6.0/10. Primary supports: strong positive GEX $40.5M concentrated around $597.50–$600 and repeated max-pain at $575 for the next expiries; concentrated OI calls at $590/$597.50/$600 create upside sellers; conflicts: net premium flow is negative $-39.5M (buying protection/puts) and avg IV 49.5% with elevated short-dated IV where unusual prints cluster.

Confidence:

6 / 10

Base 6.0 from pre-computed: +GEX pinning and spot at MP push toward $575; offset by negative net premium and elevated short-dated IV/unusual prints raising tail risk.

Supports: GEX +$40.5M with NTM concentrations at $597.50/$590/$600; repeated max pain at $575 through 4/13; EM 2d $562.22/$587.87 keeps range tight.
Conflicts: Net premium -$39.5M (put buying), P/C vol 0.95, elevated 1–6d IV (53.4%→40.7%) and heavy short-dated unusual activity around 4/08 increasing tail risk.

📌Max-pain pin at $575 across front expiries — dealers motivated to hedge around current spot

🟢Positive GEX $40.5M implies mean-reversion / short-premium edge while pin holds

⚠️Net premium negative $-39.5M + multiple short-dated unusual prints → asymmetric downside protection demand

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal

IV is Normal overall (Avg IV 49.5%) but front-week IV is elevated (1d ATM 53.4%, 3d 47.9%) creating short-dated richness versus 10–45d where ATM sits ~40–49%.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

Pinning — large positive GEX $40.5M concentrated near spot and local GEX concentrations at $597.50/$590/$600 produce a pin magnet at $575 that favors mean reversion into expiries.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Mixed flow: net premium -$39.5M implies institutional buying of protection (put demand) while P/C OI ratio 0.49 shows call-heavy structural OI; intraday prints show both aggressive short-dated calls and puts.

Spot vs Max Pain

Spot is At Max Pain ($575) for the next expiries — friction to directional moves near-term as dealer hedging aligns with the pin.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain pins persist across multiple expiries (4/08→4/13) and GEX sign remains positive across near expirations; regime likely persists 2–4 weeks so prefer 30–45 DTE for primary trades with weeklies for tactical overlays.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$562.22$587.87

Pin at $575 plus 2d EM $562.22/$587.87; breach above $587.87 requires call-seller exhaustion at $590 resistance.

Next 1 week

$552.15$597.95

Sustained move above $597.95 needs heavy call OI at $600/$610 to be cleared; downside below $552.15 risks dealer de-pin and acceleration toward gamma flip ~$500.

Next 2 weeks

$541.17$608.92

IV term structure compresses after short-dated expiry; breakouts driven by net premium flows and macro catalysts.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $575 (2026-04-08); $575 (2026-04-10); $578 (2026-04-13)

EM guardrails: 2d $562.22/$587.87; 1w $552.15/$597.95

Support: $560.00 · $550.00 · $540.00

Resistance: $590.00 · $600.00 · $610.00

Gamma flip: ~$500.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,167 (13.1% below spot)

Structural: Large call OI wall at $700–$800 caps longer-term upside; concentrated put floor around $500 is structural downside support and the gamma flip (~$500) is the long-tail invalidation level.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+40.5M

DEX: +62.2M shares

Gamma flip: ~$500 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 15,167 (13.1% below spot))

NTM gamma: Positive near-term GEX concentrated at $597.50 (+$2.9M), $590 (+$1.9M), $600 (+$1.7M) — dealers long gamma near those strikes so small moves will be met with hedging that pushes spot back toward the pin; if spot falls ~2% (~$564) dealers will buy stock (supporting price); if spot rises ~2% (~$586) dealers will sell stock (capping upside) until pin resolves.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: Spot IV skew: short-dated IV elevated (1d ATM 53.4%, 3d 47.9%) vs mid-dated 10–45d ATM 40.7%–46.1% — front-week rich relative to multi-week levels.

Term structure: Front-week hump (53.4%→47.9%→40.7% then ~49% at 24–31d), indicating event/expiry compression and a midsurface dip; 24–45d ATM ~49.2%–46.1% offers calendar opportunities.

Skew: Notable skew: short-dated puts (e.g., 560/565/567.5) trade rich (IV mid-50s); mispriced vol edge: sell 4/10 ATM call IV (~47.9%) vs buy 5/22 ATM call IV (~46.1%) — small but actionable calendar sell of near-term premium.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: Net premium -$39.5M (institutional protection buying / skewed toward puts) but P/C OI 0.49 indicates heavier call OI structurally.

Directional prints: 55.4 call 570 ITM 4/08 — Large 4/08 $570C print (Vol 6,825 vs OI 286) — could be buyers of calls (directional) or sellers closing; consistent with dealer pin support but ambiguous. 56.5 put 567.5 OTM 4/08 — 4/08 $567.5P heavy flow (Vol 6,408 vs OI 293) — aggressive short-dated protection buys; more consistent with net premium negative (put demand).

Unusual: 55.4 call 570 ITM 4/08 — Very large short-dated activity at $570–$575 strikes across calls and puts indicating both directional bets and protection; overall flow favors put buys (net premium negative).

Risks & Catalysts

!Short-dated IV elevated (1d ATM 53.4%) — expiry-driven vol crush risk if pin holds

!Gamma flip near ~$500 — structural break accelerant if breached

!Unusual heavy short-dated prints 4/08 increase asymmetric tail risk to downside despite GEX pin

!Macro shock (broad tech selloff) would overwhelm dealer pinning and hit put floor $500

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy 100 shares at market	Dealer pin and short-dated put demand can cap upside; capital intensive.
Short stock	Weak	Short 100 shares at market	Positive GEX and dealer buying on dips make shorting risky; large call OI creates one-sided squeeze risk.
Covered call	Moderate	Buy 100 shares + Sell 4/10 575 call	Capped upside at $575 and assignment into pin; works if you own shares and accept rollover risk after expiry.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell 5/22 575/565 put spread	Gamma flip <$500; short-dated pin decay risk but spread defines risk.
Long calls (directional)	Moderate-Weak	Buy 5/22 600 call	IV term and strong call OI at 600+ inflate premium; requires meaningful upside to pay off.
Long puts / bear put spread	Moderate	Buy 4/13 575 put, sell 4/13 550 put (bear put spread)	Short-dated IV expensive; expensive debit but effective if pin fails short-term.
Iron condor	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/13 555/545 put spread + Sell 4/13 595/610 call spread (defined-risk IC)	V-shaped risk if IV spikes or pin breaks; best sized small given front-week IV.
Calendar / diagonal (sell near-term high-IV)	Moderate-Strong	Sell 4/10 575 call, Buy 5/22 575 call (regular calendar) — sell higher-IV leg	Theta bleed if spot moves; small vol-pt edge (~+1.8 vol-pt) front vs 45d.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy 5/22 520–550 LEAP call (choose 5/22 or longer) + sell short-term calls 4/10/4/13 OTC	Requires funding and rollover; good for long-term bullish exposure with income.

Top Plays

45d Put Spread (primary multi-week)

Sell 5/22 575/565 put spread

Takes advantage of positive GEX pinning at $575, collects premium with defined risk while thesis is multi-week; front-week put buying raises short-term pin durability but 45d gives time decay and margin vs short-dated volatility.

Credit: $0.90-$1.50

Max loss: $9.10

BE: $574.10

Mgmt: Buy back at 60% of max profit or if spot < $565 or VIX > 30; cut at 1.5× max loss.

Traders wanting defined-risk premium collection with multi-week time decay

Front-week Iron Condor (tactical)

Sell 4/13 555/545 put spread + Sell 4/13 595/610 call spread

Exploits positive GEX and tight 1-week EM ($552.15–$597.95) to sell premium around the pin; defined risk and collects elevated front-week IV.

Credit: $1.25-$2.25

Max loss: $8.75

BE: Lower: 555 - credit; Upper: 610 + credit

Mgmt: Take 50–75% profit if premium halves; hedge or exit if spot closes outside put or call wing for two consecutive 30-min candles.

Tactical short-premium traders comfortable with weeklies

Near-term Call Calendar (vol arbitrage)

Sell 4/10 575 call, Buy 5/22 575 call (regular calendar)

Sell richer near-term IV (4/10 ATM ~47.9%) and buy 45d (~46.1%) to capture time decay and front-week vol; aligns with dealer pinning at $575 and mixed flow.

Debit: $1.50-$2.50

Max loss: $500.00

BE: N/A

Mgmt: Close short leg into profit >60% or roll short to next weekly if pin persists; exit if spot moves >$10 against the short leg or if IV differential inverts.

Traders who want non-directional exposure to front-week vol decay with limited capital

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFIf spot trades and holds $575.00 for 30 min → Sell 5/22 575/565 put spread

IFIf spot < $572.50 and 2d EM lower bound $562.22 holds → Sell 4/13 555/545 put spread as tactical overlay

IFIf 4/10 575 call IV ≥ 48% and 5/22 575 call IV ≤ 47% → Initiate sell 4/10 575 call / buy 5/22 575 call calendar (debit) — sell higher-IV leg

Exit Triggers

EXITIf position profit reaches 60% of maximum for any sold premium trade → Take profit and remove short leg

EXITIf IV(1d) > 60% or VIX > 30 while holding short premium → Exit all short-premium positions immediately

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: dealers are pinning around $575, favoring short-premium and mean-reversion strategies; invalidation is a sustained break below ~$550–$540 (1w/2w EM lower bounds) or a fast crash toward gamma flip ~$500 which converts regime to trending; top plays: 5/22 575/565 put spread for multi-week defined premium, 4/13 iron condor for tactical front-week premium, and sell 4/10 575 call / buy 5/22 575 call calendar for front-to-mid IV arbitrage.

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This directional reflects the market close on April 7, 2026.

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