MELI Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 3 (moderate volume, mixed flow); +1.5 (strong put premium dominance at key strikes, spot above MP); -0 (no major conflicting signals)

Watch next session: $2120 Put flow for continuation; Reaction to spot near $1720 (4/24 max pain); Any call buying to defend $1760 level

Flow Summary

Net premium: -$14.4M bearish

P/C volume ratio: 1.04 — balanced with slight put lean

P/C OI ratio: 0.91 — moderate call lean in positioning

Mixed volume but decisively bearish premium flow. Large, concentrated put buying at elevated strikes ($2120, $2020) drives net negative premium, suggesting institutional hedging or directional downside bets. Spot sits above max pain, creating a gravitational pull lower.

Notable Prints

MELI 2026-04-17 $2120 Put

Vol: 68

OI: 304

Vol/OI: 0.2x

IV: 42.7%

Notional: ~$18.0M

Intent: Large institutional hedge or directional downside bet

Dual read: Bought put (bearish) or sold as part of a collar (neutral/bullish hedge)

Read-through: Dominant flow of the day. The $18M net premium outflow at a strike ~23% above spot is a major bearish signal, either for protection or a bet on a sharp reversal.

MELI 2026-04-17 $2020 Put

Vol: 50

OI: 200

Vol/OI: 0.3x

IV: 42.7%

Notional: ~$10.0M

Intent: Downside protection/hedge

Dual read: Fresh long put or roll from nearer expiry

Read-through: Second-largest premium outflow. Complements the $2120P flow, building a layered put wall in the $2000-$2120 zone for mid-April, indicating concern over a ~15% drop from spot.

MELI 2026-04-17 $1980 Put

Vol: 40

OI: 160

Vol/OI: 0.3x

IV: 42.7%

Notional: ~$7.6M

Intent: Part of the same hedging/downside bet structure as $2020P/$2120P

Dual read: Spread leg or additional standalone protection

Read-through: Further evidence of concentrated bearish flow in the April monthly expiration. This cluster suggests a defined risk view targeting a move below $2000.

MELI 2026-04-02 $1320 Call

Vol: 366

OI: 366

Vol/OI: 1.0x

IV: 44.9%

Notional: ~$15.6M

Intent: Closing of existing deep OTM call position

Dual read: Sale of long calls (bearish/bullish exit) or buy-to-close of short calls (bullish)

Read-through: High volume but low open interest impact suggests this is likely position closure, not new directional betting. The $15.6M net premium inflow is deceptive; it's probably profit-taking or risk reduction on a lottery ticket that is now ~24% OTM with 2 days to expiry.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal. Notable call OI at $1500 and $1460, but these are likely older, deeper ITM positions.

Put additions: Concentrated in April monthly ($2120P, $2020P, $1980P) and May ($1500P). This is the dominant new flow.

GEX/DEX consistency: Mixed. Positive but minimal GEX suggests pinning pressure, while DEX (1.3M shares) and bearish premium flow suggest underlying hedging/downside positioning.

OI clusters: Major put OI at $1620 (354), $1560 (347), $1600 (320). Major call OI is deeper ITM ($1320, $1460, $1500) or far OTM ($2480, $2550).

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence. The large, high-strike put buys ($2120P, $2020P) are classic institutional hedging patterns, possibly collars or protective puts for large share holdings.

Max pain context: Spot ($1729) is well above near-term max pain ($1650-$1700), creating a mechanical pull lower. The rising MP trend suggests the market is gradually pricing in higher support levels over time.

Signal vs Noise

~$1320 Call volume (366) is almost certainly noise — closing of expired lottery tickets with 2 DTE, not a new bullish signal.

~Far OTM call OI at $2480 and $2550 is negligible volume and represents long-dated, low-delta speculation, not near-term directional intent.

~The high IV (108%) for the Dec 2026 expiry is an outlier likely due to low liquidity and wide spreads at that tenor, not a meaningful volatility signal.

Key Conclusions

⚠️Bearish premium flow dominates (-$14.4M net), driven by large, high-strike put buys.

🎯Spot above max pain ($1650) suggests gravitational pull lower toward $1700-$1650 zone.

🛡️Institutions are actively hedging with April $2000-$2120 puts, indicating concern over a 10-15% drop.

📊Flow confidence is moderate (4.5/10). Watch for follow-through in put flow or a break of $1700 for confirmation.

Read the Flow analysis for MELI for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.