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MA

Mastercard IncorporatedClose $498.04EOD only

Max Pain

$495.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.35

1.7% from close

Price Gap

-3.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.21

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MA Earnings Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/30 (31 days). IV is elevated in the May 1 expiration (32.6% vs ~28% for surrounding expirations), creating a clear term structure kink and an expected move of ±7.1%. The stock is pinned at max pain ($500) with trending gamma, suggesting potential for a larger move post-earnings. The best strategy is a short premium play, given the elevated IV and historical tendency to under-move expectations.

Confidence:

6.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 for clear IV kink and elevated EM; -0 for data quality

Most important: IV term structure kink at 5/01 confirms earnings date and elevated premium to sell.

📅Earnings date inferred as 4/30 from EPS estimate. Confirm with company calendar.

📊Historical data shows 100% EPS beat rate, but price reaction data is unavailable.

⚖️Spot at max pain ($500) with trending gamma. Pin risk low pre-earnings, but post-earnings break could be sharp.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

Normal (IV 35%)

Gamma Regime

Trending (GEX -$321K — pro-cyclical)

Flow Regime

Mixed (net prem +$3.0M, P/C 1.89)

Spot vs MP

At max pain $500 (spot $499.66)

Gamma flip: ~$480.00 — Below ~$480, negative GEX could accelerate downward moves.

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-30 (31 days)explicit (EPS estimate provided for 4/30)

Expected moves:

5/01 (31d): ±$35.40 (7.1%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Clear kink at 5/01 (32.6% IV) vs 4/24 (28.2%) and 5/08 (33.6%). IV elevated for earnings expiration.

Crush estimate: ~5-7 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~27-28% range.

Skew: P/C volume ratio of 1.89 indicates heavier put trading, but OI ratio of 1.15 is more balanced. Unusual activity shows heavy OTM put buying in April expirations.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: Cannot calculate precise historical EM, but stock has consistently beaten EPS estimates.

Directional bias: Consistent positive EPS surprises suggest upward bias, but price reaction data is unavailable.

Key Levels

1$480 gamma flip / put OI wall

2$500 max pain / spot

3$550 call OI wall

4EM: $465 - $535

Flow Highlights

Heavy OTM put buying in 4/02 expiry: $427.5P, $430P, $432.5P (Vol 3.6x, 2.5x, 2.0x OI).

Likely short-term hedging or speculative downside bets ahead of earnings season, not directly tied to the 4/30 event.

Large net premium to calls at deep OTM strikes ($310, $300, $330).

Likely far-dated, low-delta call spreads or complex positioning, not a direct earnings signal.

Strategies

Short Strangle (Post-Earnings IV Crush)

Sell $460 PUT and $540 CALL 5/01

Credit: $6.50-$8.50

Max loss: Unlimited

Max gain: $7.50

BE: $452.50 - $547.50 (approx, depends on credit)

Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings (mid-April) as IV ramps.

Sells elevated IV (32.6%) with wide wings (~1.1x the expected move). The 100% EPS beat rate provides some confidence in lack of catastrophic miss. Wings align with key OI levels ($480 put wall, $550 call wall).

Outperforms: Stock stays within a ~±8% range ($460-$540), and IV crushes post-earnings.

Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond strangle wings, especially below $460.

Iron Condor (Defined Risk)

Sell $475/$465 PUT spread and $525/$535 CALL spread 5/01

Credit: $2.00-$3.00

Max loss: $7.00

Max gain: $3.00

BE: $472 - $528 (approx)

Trigger: Enter 1-2 weeks before earnings.

Defined-risk alternative to the strangle. Collects premium while risking less capital. Short strikes are placed inside the expected move bounds, betting on a typical under-move. Aligns with $480 put OI and $525 call OI.

Outperforms: Stock stays within a ±5.3% range ($475-$525).

Underperforms: Stock moves beyond the short strikes of the condor.

Long Put Diagonal (Cautious Hedge)

Buy $500 PUT 5/01, Sell $480 PUT 4/24

Max loss: Debit paid

Max gain: ~$15-$18 (difference in strikes minus debit)

BE: Below $500 at 5/01 expiry, precise calc depends on debit.

Trigger: Enter a few days before earnings if concerned about downside.

Finances a near-ATM protective put by selling a nearer-term, lower-strike put. Profits from a moderate drop and IV crush on the long leg. The short $480 put aligns with the gamma flip and major OI level.

Outperforms: Stock declines moderately post-earnings, staying above $480 by 4/24 expiry.

Underperforms: Stock rallies or collapses below $480 before 4/24, impairing short leg.

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: 7.1% expected move is significant. A guidance miss could trigger a move toward the $480 gamma flip/OI wall or lower.

!IV crush: Selling premium relies on IV dropping from ~32.6% post-event. If macro volatility remains high, crush may be less pronounced.

!Liquidity: Options are liquid with 119k+ OI and tight spreads on standard strikes.

!Sizing: Use reduced size on short premium strategies due to the trending (negative) gamma regime, which can amplify moves.

What to Watch

?IV trajectory in the 5/01 expiration as earnings approach.

?Spot price relative to $500 max pain and $480 gamma flip.

?Any unusual flow into May-dated options for clearer directional signals.

How to Use These Reports

This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.