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MA

Mastercard IncorporatedClose $498.04EOD only

Max Pain

$495.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$8.35

1.7% from close

Price Gap

-3.04

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Low premium

P/C OI

1.21

Slightly put-heavy

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects MA options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

MA Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Consensus-supported lens with chain history and key metrics in the rail.

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

4.5 / 10

base 3; +1.5 for concentrated, high-IV put flow; -0 for mixed net premium

Watch next session: $480-$490 put OI accumulation; Any call buying to defend $500

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$3.0M — slightly bullish but misleading

P/C volume ratio: 1.89 — strongly put-dominant

P/C OI ratio: 1.15 — moderate put lean

A stark divergence exists: volume flow is heavily skewed towards puts (P/C 1.89), yet net premium is slightly positive. This suggests the put flow is concentrated in lower-premium, far OTM strikes, while the limited call flow is in higher-premium, nearer-to-money strikes. The dominant narrative is defensive positioning and downside speculation, masked by a few large premium call prints.

Notable Prints

MA 4/2 $427.50 Put

Vol: 529

OI: 147

Vol/OI: 3.6x

IV: 103.9%

Notional: ~$226k

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or protective hedge

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold (bullish)

Read-through: Extremely high IV (104%) suggests buying for crash protection or a volatility bet. The 3.6x OI turnover indicates new positioning. This is a bearish signal for a sharp, near-term move below $427.5.

MA 4/2 $432.50 Put

Vol: 567

OI: 280

Vol/OI: 2.0x

IV: 64.8%

Notional: ~$245k

Intent: Fresh directional put buying or part of a spread

Dual read: Bought (bearish) or sold as part of a put spread

Read-through: High volume and elevated IV point to new bearish bets. Combined with the $427.5P, it forms a cluster of activity ~14% below spot, defining a clear downside target zone for the weekly expiry.

MA 4/2 $430 Put

Vol: 380

OI: 151

Vol/OI: 2.5x

IV: 72.7%

Notional: ~$163k

Intent: Fresh directional put buying

Dual read: Bought (bearish)

Read-through: Further confirms the concentrated bearish interest in the $427.5-$432.5 zone for the 4/2 expiry. This is not noise; it's a thematic bet on a significant drop within days.

MA 4/10 $420 Put

Vol: 300

OI: 103

Vol/OI: 2.9x

IV: 49.9%

Notional: ~$126k

Intent: Downside hedge or speculative put

Dual read: Bought (bearish)

Read-through: Extends the bearish timeline. Buying a put 16% OTM with 50% IV is a cheap hedge against a larger, sustained decline, aligning with the near-term put flow theme.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term call flow. Premium call prints are at deep OTM strikes ($300, $310, $330) — likely far-dated, low-delta speculation or covered call writes, not immediate bullish bets.

Put additions: Concentrated in 4/2 $427.5-$432.5 puts and 4/10 $420P. This is the clearest institutional signal: positioning for a sharp near-term decline.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Negative GEX (-$321K) indicates dealers are short gamma, which can amplify moves (pro-cyclical). This aligns with the bearish put flow, as a break lower could accelerate.

OI clusters: Major call OI at $550 (4,053) and $530 (1,363) act as distant ceilings. Major put OI at $480 (2,647 combined) and $450 (1,595) are the nearest significant support/magnet levels below.

Hedging evidence: The high-IV, OTM put buying in the unusual activity is classic hedging behavior. The put/call OI ratio of 1.15 also shows a structural lean towards puts.

Max pain context: Spot ($499.66) is pinned exactly at the near-term (3/27) max pain of $500. However, the max pain trend falls sharply to $440 by March 2027, indicating the options market's gravity pulls lower over time.

Signal vs Noise

~Large net premium from $300-$330 calls: These are likely long-dated, low-delta positions (LEAPS) or covered call writes. Their high notional value skews the net premium bullish, but they are not tactical, near-term directional bets.

~Top premium flow strikes ($560P, $605P, etc.): The large negative net premium at these high strikes is from deep OTM puts being sold (likely cash-secured or part of spreads), not bought. This is income generation, not bearish positioning.

~The slightly positive net premium is noise in the context of the overwhelming put volume dominance. Focus on the P/C ratio and the nature of the unusual prints.

Key Conclusions

⚠️High-Volume, High-IV Put Flow: Concentrated bearish bets for a sharp move to ~$430 by 4/2.

📊Flow/Structure Alignment: Negative GEX (pro-cyclical) supports the bearish put flow thesis for amplified moves.

🎯Key Levels: Watch $500 (max pain pin), then $480 (major put OI support). A break below $480 targets the $427-$433 flow zone.

🚫Ignore Net Premium Noise: Bullish net premium is distorted by LEAPS call premium; volume tells the true defensive story.

How to Use These Reports

This flow reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.