LRCX Flow Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Flow Verdict

Confidence:

7.5 / 10

base 5; +1.5 P/C vol 1.45 & net premium bearish; +1 GEX pinning & spot below MP; -0 VIX high but priced in

Watch next session: $205 Put 4/10 OI buildup; Spot reaction to $200 put wall (14,489 OI); Any call sweep into $220-$230 strikes

Flow Summary

Net premium: +$23.1M bearish (positive = put buyers paid premium)

P/C volume ratio: 1.45 — put-dominant volume

P/C OI ratio: 1.01 — balanced positioning

Flow shows clear institutional put buying for near-term downside protection, despite balanced open interest. The positive net premium indicates buyers are paying up for puts, a bearish signal. Spot is pinned below near-term max pain, reinforcing a negative near-term bias.

Notable Prints

LRCX 4/10 $205 Put

Vol: 4,220

OI: 379

Vol/OI: 11.1x

IV: 66.4%

Notional: ~$1.47M (based on ~$1,468,478 net premium flow)

Intent: Fresh directional put buying for near-term downside protection

Dual read: Bought to open (bearish) or sold as part of a spread (less bearish)

Read-through: High volume vs. OI and significant premium paid point to new bearish positioning. Strike is ~4% below spot, targeting a move toward the massive $200 put OI wall.

LRCX 4/10 $212.50 Put

Vol: 2,116

OI: 777

Vol/OI: 2.7x

IV: 64.7%

Notional: ~$1.16M (based on ~$1,159,508 net premium flow)

Intent: Near-the-money protective put buying

Dual read: Hedge for long stock or outright bearish bet

Read-through: Strike is just below spot, suggesting institutions are hedging immediate downside risk. The 2.7x vol/OI ratio indicates meaningful addition to existing positioning.

LRCX 1/15/27 $71 Put

Vol: 690

OI: 370

Vol/OI: 1.9x

IV: 82.6%

Notional: ~$48,300 (est. premium ~$0.70)

Intent: Long-dated, far OTM protective put or part of a complex structure

Dual read: Tail-risk hedge or financing leg for a bullish position (e.g., put sale to fund calls)

Read-through: Extremely low delta, high IV. Likely a cheap, long-dated disaster hedge rather than a direct directional bet on near-term price action. More noise than signal for the weekly view.

Institutional Positioning

Call additions: Minimal near-term call flow. Notable premium in deep OTM calls ($50, $108, $114) which are likely speculative or part of multi-leg strategies, not outright bullish bets.

Put additions: Concentrated in 4/10 expiration at $205 and $212.50 strikes. This is fresh, paid-for protection.

GEX/DEX consistency: Yes — Positive GEX (+$3.9M) suggests pinning pressure, which aligns with spot being trapped below near-term max pain ($225) and above the large $200 put OI wall.

OI clusters: Major Put Wall: $200 (14,489 OI). Major Call Walls: $230 (8,104 OI), $240 (5,401 OI). The $200 put cluster is a significant support/magnet, while call walls above spot create resistance.

Hedging evidence: Strong evidence in the 4/10 put flow. The $212.50 and $205 puts are classic protective put purchases, especially given the high IV environment.

Max pain context: Spot ($213.66) is below the 3/27 max pain ($225) and between the 4/2 ($212.50) and 4/10 ($215) MP levels. This suggests gravitational pull toward $212.50-$215 near-term, with the massive $200 put OI acting as a longer-term floor.

Signal vs Noise

~Deep OTM call premium (e.g., $50, $108, $114): Likely speculative lottery tickets or part of complex spreads (e.g., call backspreads), not indicative of institutional bullish conviction.

~Far-dated, deep OTM puts (e.g., 2027 $71 Put): Tail-risk hedges or financing legs, not a signal for near-term direction.

~The $370 Call with high OI (12,537) is a legacy position, as volume is negligible (1). It's noise for current flow.

Key Conclusions

🐻Flow is bearish: P/C ratio >1 and positive net premium show paid put buying for protection.

📍Spot is pinned below near-term max pain ($225), with GEX positive, reinforcing a capped rally view.

🛡️Institutions are actively hedging near-term downside via 4/10 $205 and $212.50 puts.

🧱The $200 put OI wall (14,489) is a major support level; a break below could trigger accelerated selling.

Read the Flow analysis for LRCX for 2026-03-31. This AI-generated report covers regime classification, key price levels, strategy recommendations, and actionable trade ideas drawn from end-of-day options data including gamma exposure, delta exposure, and implied volatility.