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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $292.09EOD only
Max Pain
$280.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$14.82
5.1% from close
Price Gap
-12.09
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
54
Middle-high premium
P/C OI
1.07
Balanced positioning
Consensus
4/4
Partial coverage
Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 20, 2026 close
LRCX Earnings Report
Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Earnings Verdict

Earnings expected around 4/22 (inferred from term structure kink). IV is extremely elevated at 69%, creating a strong IV crush setup. The stock is below max pain, and historical EPS beat rate is 100%, but the expected move is large at ±15.3% for the 4/24 expiration.

Confidence:
6 / 10
base 5; +1 high IV (69%); +0.5 historical beat rate; -0.5 no explicit earnings date
Most important: IV term structure shows a sharp kink at 4/24 (72.3% vs 66.6% pre), strongly suggesting earnings that week. This is the primary date anchor.
⚠️Earnings date inferred from IV kink at 4/24. Not explicitly confirmed.
📊100% EPS beat rate last 4 quarters, but no price reaction history provided.
🎯Spot ($213.66) is below near-term max pain ($225), suggesting gravitational pull higher.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime
High (IV 69%)
Gamma Regime
Pinning (GEX +$3.9M — mean-reverting)
Flow Regime
Mixed (net prem +$23.1M, P/C 1.45)
Spot vs MP
Below max pain by 5.0% (spot $213.66 vs MP $225)
Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Below $200, dealers amplify moves due to put OI concentration

Earnings Overview

Next earnings: 2026-04-22 (22 days)inferred

Expected moves:

  • 4/24 (24d): ±$32.78 (15.3%)
  • 5/01 (31d): ±$36.82 (17.2%)

IV Setup

Term structure: Sharp kink at 4/24 expiration (72.3% IV) vs 66.6% for 4/10. Elevated IV persists through May, then declines.

Crush estimate: ~20-25 vol pts post-earnings, back to ~50% range

Skew: P/C volume ratio of 1.45 indicates put skew. Premium flow shows large net call buying at $50, $114, $220, but significant put buying at $205.

Historical Context

Beat rate: 100% (4/4 quarters)

Avg move vs expected: No historical price move data provided. EPS surprise average: +$0.065

Directional bias: Unknown

Key Levels

1$200 gamma flip / major put OI wall
2$225 max pain (3/27)
3$212.50 max pain (4/02)
4EM 4/24: $180 - $247.5

Flow Highlights

Massive 4,220 volume in $205P 4/10 (11x OI), IV 66.4%

Large bearish bet for near-term, possibly hedging or positioning for a drop toward $200 support.

Heavy net call premium at deep OTM strikes ($50, $114) and near ATM ($212.50, $220)

Mixed signals: deep OTM calls may be financing or speculative leaps; ATM call buying suggests some bullish conviction.

Strategies

Short Straddle / Strangle (IV Crush)
Sell $212.50 straddle 4/24 (or $200P/$230C strangle)
Credit: $32.00-$35.00
Max loss: Unlimited
Max gain: $32.00
BE: ~$180.50 / ~$244.50 (for straddle)
Trigger: Enter 5-7 days before inferred earnings date (4/22), target IV >70%
Extremely elevated IV (72%) provides rich premium. Historical EPS beat rate suggests less downside surprise risk, but the large expected move requires wide wings.
Outperforms: Stock stays within a wide range (~±10%) and IV crushes post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock gaps beyond breakevens (>±15%)
Put Credit Spread (Bullish Bias)
Sell $200P / Buy $190P 4/24
Credit: $2.50-$3.50
Max loss: $7.50
Max gain: $2.50
BE: $197.50
Trigger: Enter on any dip toward $210, ahead of earnings
Defines risk below major $200 support. Capitalizes on high put premium and positive EPS history. Spot is below near-term max pain ($225), suggesting potential mean reversion higher.
Outperforms: Stock stays above $200 (key gamma/OI level) post-earnings
Underperforms: Stock breaks below $197.50
Long Put Butterfly (Defensive, Low Cost)
Buy 1x $205P / Sell 2x $200P / Buy 1x $195P 4/24
Debit: $1.00-$1.50
Max loss: $1.50
Max gain: $3.50
BE: 203.50 - 196.50
Trigger: Enter if IV dips slightly before earnings or stock rallies toward $220
Low-cost way to bet on a pin at the key $200 support/OI level. Benefits from IV crush due to short center strikes. Aligns with high put OI at $200.
Outperforms: Stock pins near $200 at 4/24 expiration
Underperforms: Stock moves sharply away from $200

Risk Assessment

!Gap risk: Expected move is ±15.3% ($32.78), a significant range. A guidance miss could trigger a move toward $180 support.
!IV crush risk: If IV remains elevated due to macro volatility (VIX high), the crush may be less pronounced, hurting short premium strategies.
!Liquidity: Good (445k OI, 42k volume). Strikes are granular ($2.5 increments near ATM).
!Sizing: Keep short premium positions small (<2% risk capital) due to large expected move.

What to Watch

?Confirmation of earnings date (likely 4/22 AMC)
?IV trajectory into late April – any further spike increases crush potential
?Price action relative to $200 and $225 levels
?Unusual activity in 4/24 and 5/01 expirations for earnings positioning clues
How to Use These Reports
This earnings reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.