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LRCX

Lam Research CorporationClose $292.09EOD only

Max Pain

$280.00

Next expiry May 22, 2026

Expected Move

±$14.82

5.1% from close

Price Gap

-12.09

Distance to max pain

IV Rank

Middle-high premium

P/C OI

1.07

Balanced positioning

Consensus

4/4

Partial coverage

Published snapshot: May 20, 2026 close

End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LRCX options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot

May 20, 2026 close

LRCX Directional Report

Analysis based on market close March 31, 2026

Directional Theta Gang Flow Earnings Consensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

Outlook

Neutral with a slight upward drift toward $215-$225, but constrained by high volatility and mixed flow. Confidence: 7/10. The positive GEX and DEX create a stabilizing pinning effect, but spot is 5% below the nearest max pain, requiring a move higher to resolve. High IV and a P/C ratio >1.0 add noise.

Confidence:

7 / 10

base 5; +2 GEX/DEX strongly aligned (pinning); +1 GEX positive; -1 spot 5.0% from MP. No override: high IV and mixed flow are already priced into the base score.

Supports: GEX +$3.9M & DEX +15.4M shares (strong pinning), net premium +$23.1M (bullish), spot below MP creates upward drift.
Conflicts: IV 69.2% (very high), P/C vol 1.45 (bearish tilt), spot far from nearest MP.

📌Strong GEX/DEX pinning near $213-$215.

⚠️IV >69% — selling premium has edge if pin holds.

Regime Classification

Vol Regime

High

IV 69.2% — very high, favoring premium selling strategies.

Gamma Regime

Pinning

GEX +$3.9M concentrated near spot — strong pinning regime through near-term expirations.

Flow Regime

Mixed

Net premium +$23.1M bullish, but P/C vol 1.45 bearish — mixed signals with institutional hedging.

Spot vs Max Pain

Below

Spot $213.66 below 3/27 MP $225 — expect upward pin drift toward $215-$225 over the week.

Thesis duration: Multi-week — Max pain ladder shows a persistent $210-$225 range across April expiries, GEX sign remains positive, and flow regime is consistent. The pinning dynamic is not isolated to a single expiry.

Price Range Forecast

Next 2 days

$201.93$225.39

Driven by pinning toward 3/27 max pain ($225). Break below $201.93 invalidates.

Next 1 week

$193.09$234.24

Pinning relaxes post-3/27 expiry, but April MPs cluster around $212-$215.

Next 2 weeks

$186.46$240.86

Upward drift supported by net premium flow; resistance at $230 call OI wall.

Key Levels

Max pain pins: $225 (2026-03-27); $212 (2026-04-02); $215 (2026-04-10)

EM guardrails: 2d $201.93/$225.39; 1w $193.09/$234.24

Support: $200.00 · $160.00 · $120.00

Resistance: $370.00 · $230.00 · $240.00

Gamma flip: ~$200.00 — Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,489

Structural: Call OI wall $230-$370 caps rallies; put floor $50-$200 is distant but creates a long-term support zone. The $200 put (OI 14,489) is the near-term structural floor.

Dealer Positioning (GEX/DEX)

GEX: $+3.9M

DEX: +15.4M shares

Gamma flip: ~$200 (Approx — based on put OI concentration of 14,489)

NTM gamma: Positive GEX +$3.9M acts as a stabilizer. A move above $225 reduces dealer long gamma, allowing for faster moves. A break below ~$200 (gamma flip) triggers significant dealer short hedging, accelerating selling.

IV Analysis

IV vs VIX: IV 69.2% — extremely high, offering rich premium for sellers. No VIX provided for direct comparison, but level implies elevated fear/uncertainty.

Term structure: Humped: peaks at 4/24 (72.3%) and 5/08 (73.2%), then declines. Kink at 4/22 (earnings estimate).

Skew: Near-term IV (67-73%) is 5-10 vol points above longer-dated (63-66%). Supports calendar spreads selling April/May vs buying June/Sept.

Flow Analysis

Net premium: +$23.1M bullish; P/C vol 1.45 (bearish), P/C OI 1.01 (neutral).

Directional prints: $205P 4/10 vol 4,220 vs OI 379 (11x) — could be protective put buying or speculative bearish bet. $212.5P 4/10 vol 2,116 vs OI 777 (3x) — likely hedging near spot. Overall, flow is mixed with large bullish premium at $50/$114 calls (likely covered call writes) and bearish premium at $205 puts.

Unusual: $71P Jan 2027 vol 690 at IV 82.6% — extreme tail hedge or volatility sale given the deep OTM strike and elevated IV.

Risks & Catalysts

!Gamma flip at ~$200 — break below accelerates selling.

!High IV (69%) can lead to sharp volatility crush if pin holds, hurting long premium positions.

!Earnings estimated 4/22 creates an event kink in term structure; vol will compress post-event.

!P/C volume ratio 1.45 indicates underlying bearish sentiment that could overwhelm pinning.

Strategy Viability

Strategy	Edge	Best Setup	Primary Risk
Long stock	Moderate-Weak	Buy shares at ~$213.66 (market price).	High IV and pinning limit near-term upside; better to sell premium against entry.
Short stock	Weak	Sell shares at ~$213.66 (market price).	Positive GEX/DEX pinning and net bullish premium create upward drift risk.
Covered call	Moderate-Strong	Buy stock, sell $230C 4/17 or 4/24.	Capped upside; stock decline.
Cash-secured put / put spread	Moderate-Strong	Sell $205P 4/17 or buy $210/$200 put spread 4/17.	Break below $200.
Long calls	Moderate-Weak	Buy $220C 4/17 or 5/01.	High IV crush and pinning erode premium.
Long puts / bear put spreads	Moderate	Buy $205P 4/10 or $200/$190 put spread 4/17.	Pinning and positive GEX resist downward moves.
Iron condor	Moderate	$200/$195P x $230/$235C 4/17.	High IV >28, but GEX positive provides some range support.
Calendar/diagonal	Moderate-Strong	Sell $215C 4/24 (IV 72.3%), buy $215C 6/18 (IV 66.8%) — reverse calendar.	Spot moves sharply away from short strike.
PMCC / LEAPS diagonal	Moderate	Buy $180C Jan 2027, sell $230C 4/17 or 5/01 against it.	Capital intensive; near-term pinning limits short call premium.

Top Plays

Covered Call (or Buy-Write)

Buy stock at ~$213.66, sell $230 Call 4/24.

Capitalizes on high IV for premium collection while positioning for upward pin drift. The $230 strike aligns with call OI resistance and the 1-week EM upper bound.

Credit: $4.50-$5.50

Max loss: $213.66

BE: $208.16

Mgmt: Take profit at 50-70% of credit; roll up/out if spot approaches $228. Close if spot breaks below $205.

Investors willing to own shares with capped upside, seeking income in a high-vol, range-bound environment.

Put Spread (Defined Risk)

Buy $210 Put / Sell $200 Put 4/17.

Defined-risk bearish play that benefits from high put IV and targets the key $200 support/gamma flip level. Better than long puts due to high IV and pinning resistance.

Debit: $3.50-$4.20

Max loss: $6.50

BE: $206.50

Mgmt: Exit at 50% max profit; stop out if spot closes above $215. Manage aggressively if spot holds above $210.

Traders with a bearish bias seeking defined risk, hedging long exposure, or playing for a break of the pin.

Reverse Calendar Spread

Sell $215 Call 4/24 (IV 72.3%), Buy $215 Call 6/18 (IV 66.8%).

Exploits the 5.5 vol-point hump in term structure, selling rich near-dated vol and buying cheaper longer-dated. Profits from volatility crush and time decay in the short leg, especially if spot pins near $215.

Credit: $1.80-$2.50

Max loss: N/A

BE: Complex; manage on vol spread.

Mgmt: Close when near-dated IV collapses or spread reaches 70% max credit. Exit if spot moves >$10 away from $215.

Volatility traders comfortable with pinning thesis, seeking to trade term structure decay with defined risk.

Watchlist Triggers

Entry Triggers

IFSpot rises to $218 and holds for 1 hour → Sell $230/$235 call credit spread 4/17 (target pinning to max pain).

IFSpot drops to $205 on elevated volume → Buy $210/$200 put spread 4/17 (play for test of gamma flip).

Exit Triggers

EXITSpot closes below $200 (gamma flip) → Exit all short premium positions (CSPs, iron condors).

EXITIV index drops below 60% → Take profits on all short volatility trades (iron condors, calendars).

Tactical Summary

Primary thesis: High-vol pinning within $200-$230, with upward drift toward $215-$225. Invalidation is a close below $200. The regime favors selling premium (covered calls, put spreads) and volatility arbitrage (calendars). Top plays: 1) Covered call for income, 2) Put spread for defined-risk downside, 3) Reverse calendar for vol decay. Choose based on directional bias and capital.

How to Use These Reports

This directional reflects the market close on March 31, 2026.

What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.