thetaOwl
HomeOptionsLITEReports

LITE

Lumentum Holdings Inc.Close $964.50EOD only
Max Pain
$900.00
Next expiry May 22, 2026
Expected Move
±$40.70
4.2% from close
Price Gap
-64.50
Distance to max pain
IV Rank
10
Low premium
P/C OI
1.40
Slightly put-heavy
Consensus
6.0/10
Bullish tilt
Published snapshot: May 21, 2026 close
End-of-day snapshot

This page reflects LITE options positioning from the latest published market-close snapshot. Intraday price and contract changes are not displayed.

Published Snapshot
May 21, 2026 close
LITE Theta Report
Analysis based on market close April 6, 2026
DirectionalTheta GangFlowEarningsConsensus

Historical consensus-supported lens with full content, report chain context, and metric rail.

You are viewing an older report from April 6, 2026. A newer theta report is available for May 21, 2026.

View latest report

Theta Verdict

Attractiveness8 / 10
Sizing: Small
Primary: Reverse calendar spread to exploit IV term structure differential
Invalidation: Close below $650 gamma flip or if near-term IV collapses prematurely
Confidence:
4 / 10
base 8; -4 due to data quality constraint (low OI/volume, wide spreads)

IV Environment

IV Regime
High
IV vs VIX
IV 107.2% — extremely elevated
Favorable?
Yes

Term structure: Steep front-end premium: 2026-04-10 IV 110.0% vs 2027-01-15 IV 96.8% (13.2 pp differential)

💰Extreme IV (>100%) provides rich premium for sellers
📊13.2 pp IV differential between front and back months presents clear reverse calendar opportunity

Pin Risk Assessment

Spot vs MP: Above by 2.9% ($772.28 vs $750)

GEX regime: Pinning (GEX +$2.5M)

Gamma flip: ~$650.00 — Below $650, negative gamma could accelerate selling

OI concentrations: Put floor $400-$650; Call wall $890; Near-term GEX magnets at $810, $820, $800

Verdict: Favorable — positive GEX and proximity to max pain support pinning

Premium Opportunities

#1
reverse calendar
Sell $770 call 2026-04-10 (4 DTE) / Buy $770 call 2027-01-15 (284 DTE)
Exploits 13.2 pp IV differential (110.0% vs 96.8%); sells overpriced near-dated vol against cheaper long-dated vol. High absolute IV (>96%) favors selling front-month premium. At-the-money strike aligns with current spot for maximum theta decay capture.
Credit: $18.00-$22.00
Max loss: Unlimited above far strike
BE: Complex; depends on vol decay and spot movement
Mgmt: Close when near-dated option expires or IV differential narrows significantly; exit if price breaches $800 resistance or falls below $740 support. Assume very wide bid-ask spreads due to low liquidity.
#2
reverse calendar
Sell $750 put 2026-04-10 (4 DTE) / Buy $750 put 2027-01-15 (284 DTE)
Capitalizes on same IV differential with put side; max pain at $750 provides strong support, reducing directional risk. Selling high-IV near-dated put collects premium while long-dated put hedges tail risk.
Credit: $15.00-$20.00
Max loss: Limited to difference in strikes minus credit (effectively $750 minus credit)
BE: Complex; depends on vol decay and spot movement
Mgmt: Close at 50% of max credit or before near expiration; exit if price closes below $720. Note: Low liquidity may make rolling difficult.
#3
put spread
Sell $750/$700 put spread 2026-04-17 (11 DTE)
Max pain at $700 provides strong support; high IV (102.2%) yields rich credit; positive GEX pinning environment. Simpler defined-risk alternative to calendars.
Credit: $10.00-$14.00
Max loss: $40.00
BE: $740.00
Mgmt: Close at 50% profit; exit if price closes below $720 (short strike -4%). Assume wide bid-ask spreads.
#4
covered call
Sell $820 covered call 2026-04-17 (11 DTE) against long stock
Call wall at $820 with positive GEX magnet; high IV provides premium; spot below resistance. Income play for stock holders.
Credit: $32.00-$36.00
Max loss: Unlimited above $820
BE: Stock purchase price - credit
Mgmt: Roll up/out if tested; close at 80% profit. Assume wide bid-ask spreads.

Risk Alerts

!Earnings on 2026-05-05 (~4 weeks) — close all positions at least 1 week prior to avoid IV crush
!Gamma flip at $650 — breach could trigger accelerated selling
!Low liquidity (145,239 OI) — bid-ask spreads are wide; credit estimates are theoretical, especially for long-dated options
!Max pain trend falling ($750 → $300) suggests longer-term downward pressure
!Unusual call buying at $950 (23% OTM) indicates speculative upside bets
!Reverse calendars carry pin risk at near-dated expiration; manage before expiry to avoid assignment
How to Use These Reports
This theta reflects the market close on April 6, 2026.
What the reports do

Each report translates the same market-close options snapshot into a specific lens such as directional bias, premium-selling posture, flow quality, or earnings setup.

How traders use them

Reports are most useful for narrowing the playbook, surfacing entry and risk context, and deciding which raw data page to inspect next.

What to remember

These are interpretation layers, not execution guarantees. Validate the setup against chain liquidity, expected move, and exposure before sizing risk.

If the report conviction and the raw data disagree, slow down and resolve the mismatch before sizing risk.